THE IMPACT OF THE PANDEMIC ON THE GROWTH OF THE NUMBER OF «ZOMBIE COMPANIES» AND «ZOMBIE LENDING» IN THE RUSSIAN MARKET

Abstract We examine the Indian bank asset quality review, which doubled the declared loan delinquency rate. Relative economic stability during the exercise and the absence of a capital backstop together make it unique. We find that the expected reduction in information asymmetry does not automatically lead to the recapitalization of banks by markets. The consequent undercapitalization leads to underinvestment and risk-shifting through zombie lending. The impact flows to the real economy through borrowers, including shadow banks, and adversely impacts growth. These findings show that bank cleanup exercises not accompanied by policies aimed at recapitalization may be insufficient even during normal times.

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Impact of Global Oil Shocks on the Russian Stock Market

SHS Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/shsconf/20219207037 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 92 ◽

pp. 07037

Author(s):

Igor Lukasevich ◽

Ludmila Chikileva

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Value Added ◽

Stock Index ◽

Series Data ◽

Var Model ◽

Oil Shocks ◽

Russian Market ◽

Russian Stock Market ◽

The Impact

Research background: The study focuses on modeling assessment of oil shocks impact on the Russian stock market. Purpose of the article: The purpose of the study is to determine the impact of oil prices abrupt changes on the Russian stock market, its quantitative and temporal specifications. The study consists of two interrelated sections. The first section includes the results of statistical processing of initial data, calculation of their key characteristics and preliminary analysis. The second section of the study is devoted to modeling the assessment of the impact of oil shocks on the behavior of the Russian market RTS stock index. Methods: Based on an extensive sample of daily price values for Brent North sea oil and the Russian stock index RTS for the period from 1997 to May 2020, the study was conducted using models vector auto regression (VAR-model). Findings &Value added: The VAR model was developed and tested to assess the impact of oil shocks on the Russian stock market. Unlike the results of other studies, it is shown that the Brent oil price variance explains only about 10% of the RTS index yield variance in long-term time intervals. The low correlation of time series data and time limit of the impact of oil shocks on the Russian market have been revealed. According to the results of the study, the market recovery takes about 2 months, then the stock index returns to the ‘historical’ range of average ± standard deviation.

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ON THE THRESHOLD OF THE CRISIS. DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS AND BASIC TENDENCIES OF THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY OF RUSSIA

EKONOMIKA I UPRAVLENIE: PROBLEMY, RESHENIYA ◽

10.36871/ek.up.p.r.2020.06.01.006 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 1 (6) ◽

pp. 36-41

Author(s):

F. A. POLYAKOV ◽

Keyword(s):

Real Estate ◽

Construction Industry ◽

Social Distance ◽

World Market ◽

Russian Market ◽

Economic Role ◽

Market Participants ◽

Entire World ◽

The Impact ◽

Development Prospects

This article provides an overview of the development prospects of the Russian construction industry after emerging from the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19). The article indicates the main trends and directions that will prevail in the industry, taking into account the impact of the global COVID-19 virus pandemic on the economic environment of the entire world market and the Russian market in particular. The analysis of the main categories of real estate, which are now in a recession, and those that, on the contrary, can become beneficiaries of the situation. The construction industry plays an important socio-economic role in the country. The state is developing and implementing measures to support the industry. How can social distance and self-isolation affect demand, supply, and the future of real estate engineering and design? Can market participants now adapt to new realities?

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Collateral sufficiency as an adapt financial covenant in bank crediting

Digest Finance ◽

10.24891/df.26.1.83 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 26 (1) ◽

pp. 83-106

Author(s):

Aleksandr M. KARMINSKII ◽

Ol'ga D. KHON

Keyword(s):

Credit Risk ◽

Three Dimensions ◽

Probability Of Default ◽

Russian Market ◽

New Approach ◽

Credit Risks ◽

Econometric Methods ◽

Psychological Risk ◽

The Impact ◽

Linear Regressions

Subject. The article examines the Loan-to-Value ratio in three dimensions. First, as a measure of leverage, helpful to understand the spread of systemic risk in the economy. Second, we identify LTV throughout financial covenants. Finally, we implement LTV to indicate the probability of default. Objectives. The goal of the paper is to study the impact of collateral sufficiency on credit risk throughout adjusted financial covenants for bank corporate loans. Methods. To conduct the research, the authors implement econometric methods, linear regressions and binary models. Results. We have revealed the prevalence of the posterior theory of the impact of the collateral sufficiency on the credit risk evaluation by corporate loans. We have also revealed that the higher credit risks, the higher collateral requirements to pledge the loans. Conclusions and Relevance. We have considered a new approach to identify collateral requirements, throughout LTV measures, as adjusted financial covenants on the Russian market. Lender’s preferences are being stronger at the time of downturns in economic activity. At the same time, economic growth neutralizes any visible behavioral favors/patterns. Hereby psychological risk components are quite essential, and need studying in modern banking.

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The Impact of the Sanctions and Crisis on the Automotive Industry in Russia

Scientific Research and Development Economics ◽

10.12737/22041 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 4 (5) ◽

pp. 54-58

Author(s):

Сабери ◽

Behzad Saberi

Keyword(s):

Automotive Industry ◽

Automobile Industry ◽

Technological Capabilities ◽

Russian Market ◽

Car Market ◽

The Social ◽

Vehicle Production ◽

National Industry ◽

The Impact ◽

Final Consumer

In many countries auto industry is a strategic sector of the economy, representing, together with related industries and supporting part of the national industry, providing employment and implementing the technological capabilities of the country. The present study focuses on the description of the impact of sanctions on the development of the crisis, the automobile industry, car manufacturers and the market of cars of Russia. As a result, US and EU sanctions against Russia among the first to pass the sanctions hit the country´s automotive industry. During the period of sanctions Russian car market is characterized by falling sales and reduced production. Sanctions crisis has affected the entire chain from production to bring the car to the final consumer — the drop in demand for cars in the domestic market and reduction of vehicle production; the decline in production was achieved by the suspension or closure of plants, which affected the social sphere, increasing unemployment and reducing the incomes of workers and automotive professionals. Thus, the article examines the impact of the sanctions impact of the crisis on the enterprise on production of cars, as well as trade in cars in the Russian market.

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Regional Airports of the Central Federal District: Development Prospects in the Context of Macroeconomic Instability

Scientific Research and Development Economics ◽

10.12737/2587-9111-2021-9-2-43-50 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

pp. 43-50

Author(s):

V. Rublev ◽

O. Larin

Keyword(s):

System Analysis ◽

Federal District ◽

Air Transportation ◽

Russian Market ◽

Passenger Traffic ◽

Central Federal District ◽

Route Network ◽

Restrictive Measures ◽

Regional Airports ◽

The Impact

Based on the analysis of passenger traffic at the airports of the Moscow Aviation Hub and regional airports of the Central Federal District, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the dynamics of passenger traffic was assessed. As a result of the system analysis, it was concluded that the growth of passenger traffic at the airports of Yaroslavl and Kursk is due to the expansion of the internal route network. As a result of the introduction of temporary prohibitive and restrictive measures for international air transportation, there was an increase in demand for domestic destinations. The airports of Yaroslavl and Kursk, in the summer of 2020, opened regular flights to the resort cities of the Southern Federal District. Based on the analysis of passenger traffic dynamics, it is concluded that an important factor in the development of regional airports in the Central Federal District is their structural modernization. The current passenger traffic index of regional airports can be significantly increased if the runways and terminal complex are expanded. The results of the study can be applied in the development of a strategy for the development of regional airports, of which there are more than 200 as of 2021 on the territory of the Russian Federation and many of which need structural modernization. In the context of the development of the airport complex in the Russian market of passenger air transportation, there will be a dynamic increase in passenger traffic.

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THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY IN POST-SOVIET COUNTRIES SINCE 1991

Eurasian Journal of Business and Management ◽

10.15604/ejbm.2021.09.02.005 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

pp. 164-183

Author(s):

Sardor Tadjiev ◽

◽

Pierre-Yves Donze ◽

Keyword(s):

Soviet Union ◽

Automotive Industry ◽

Direct Access ◽

Foreign Firms ◽

Privileged Access ◽

Russian Market ◽

Business News ◽

The Soviet Union ◽

Japanese Companies ◽

The Impact

This paper discusses the impact of industrial policy on the development of the automotive industry in five post-Soviet countries since 1991 (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan). By using foreign trade and production statistics as well as qualitative data on automobile companies from business news, this paper highlights three different paths: success in post-2000 Russia and Uzbekistan, stagnation and struggle for survival in Belarus and Kazakhstan, and failure in pre-2000 Russia and Ukraine. The existence of an automotive industry before 1991 was not a factor in success because most pre-existing firms collapsed after the break-up of the Soviet Union. Instead, the growth of these post-Soviet automotive industries has essentially relied on the presence of global car makers. This research demonstrates that inward foreign direct investment and licensing agreements were fostered by the combination of protectionist policies that made importation uncompetitive and access of global firms to the large Russian market (both direct access and indirect access via a country with privileged access to Russia). This paper also highlights different strategies adopted by foreign firms: whereas the largest Western and Japanese companies invested directly in Russia, companies from China and Korea used Central Asia and Belarus as back doors to enter the Russian market.

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Analyst says a lot, but should you listen? Evidence from Russia

Journal of Economic Studies ◽

10.1108/jes-10-2018-0352 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 47 (4) ◽

pp. 729-745 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Darko Vukovic ◽

Vladislav Ugolnikov ◽

Moinak Maiti

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Stock Prices ◽

Emerging Market ◽

Economic Situation ◽

Analyst Recommendations ◽

Russian Market ◽

Content Type ◽

Policy Content ◽

Russian Stock Market ◽

The Impact

PurposeThis study aims to examine whether the publication of analyst recommendations has reaction in the Russian stock market. This study also aims to determine the other factors that influence the reaction.Design/methodology/approachEvent study analysis (ESA) and regression models are used in this study.FindingsThe study finds that Russian stock market significantly reacts to analyst recommendations publications. Then study deeply investigates about the influence of other factors on the Russian market when an analyst's recommendations are published such as changes in recommendation levels, companies' size and general economic situation. The analysis done in the context of three types of recommendations: “buy,” “hold” and “sell.” The study finds that the market reacts not only to separate forecasts and subsequent recommendations, but also to the changes in recommendations' levels as well. Interestingly, the study finds that the impact of crises is not found to be a significant factor in the context of the Russian market.Research limitations/implicationsAnalysts used to spend much more resources on conducting a fundamental analysis than ordinary investors do. Therefore, they usually possess valuable privileged information that is supposed to influence stock prices when published. However, the present study argues that the direction, extent and period of a reaction of an analyst's recommendations are highly complicated and depend on what factors are under consideration in a particular research. Very often, the authors who dedicate their papers to develop and study markets choose a couple of (or even one) factors and delve into them. Nevertheless, to the author's best knowledge, few frequently cited and well-conducted research focused on such an emerging market as the Russian one. Thus, it seems reasonable that there is a gap in the literature that needs to be filled while considering other important factors. The study findings have a significant investment policy content.Originality/valueIn several senses, the present study is unique. First, it investigates whether analyst recommendations sufficiently affect the Russian stock market; second, it determines whether the significant factors such as changes in recommendation levels, companies' size and general economic situation have influence on the reaction. Finally, the study discusses about whether there is an impact of crises in the present study findings.

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Assessment and Analysis of the Cost of Debt Changes after Domestic Russian Mergers and Acquisitions

Finance Theory and Practice ◽

10.26794/2587-5671-2019-23-6-76-90 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 23 (6) ◽

pp. 76-90

Author(s):

V. B. Mikhal’chuk

Keyword(s):

Mergers And Acquisitions ◽

Emerging Markets ◽

Cost Of Debt ◽

Limited Information ◽

Government Bonds ◽

Russian Market ◽

Yield Spreads ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

The Cost ◽

The Impact

The study analyzes the impact of domestic Russian mergers and acquisitions on the cost of debt for companies involved in deals. The author systematized the existing findings in this area in developed and emerging markets. The methodology developed by the author for analyzing the impact of mergers and acquisitions on the cost of debt considers the specifics of the Russian market and can be used in conditions of limited information about nonpublic companies. The estimation of the cost of debt is based on synthetic credit ratings of the companies involved in the deal and the corresponding yield spreads between corporate and government bonds. The methodology was tested on a sample of 73 domestic deals completed in 2014–2016. Random effects model with robust standard errors was used to test the significance of factors affecting the cost of debt. This research makes several practical contributions. First, in the studied sample, deals lead to an increase of the cost of debt by 3,1% within a year after the deal. Second, significant factors affecting the change in the cost of debt after domestic Russian mergers and acquisitions were identified. The cost of debt is reduced by the purchase of large companies during the period of economic growth. There is a significant impact of the deal value on the increase of the cost of debt. Company management, academic researchers and experts can use research results to assess potential deals of mergers and acquisitions on emerging markets. The developed methodology can be applied to mergers and acquisitions in other countries to analyze the features of these markets.

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