scholarly journals Developing a decision support tool to forecast the abundance of the cabbage stem weevil in winter oilseed rape

2020 ◽  
Vol 56 (No. 4) ◽  
pp. 285-291
Author(s):  
Michael Eickermann ◽  
Franz Kai Ronellenfitsch ◽  
Juergen Junk
Keyword(s):  
Oilseed Rape ◽  
Insect Pest ◽  
Crop Protection ◽  
Agricultural Practices ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Statistical Relationship ◽  
Winter Oilseed Rape ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Ceutorhynchus Pallidactylus

Reducing the use of pesticides in agricultural systems is a prerequisite for sustainable agriculture and, therefore, knowledge on the factors that influence the regional insect pest densities is necessary. Based on multi-site and multi-annual observations of the cabbage stem weevil [Ceutorhynchus pallidactylus (Marsham, 1802)] in winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus Linnaeus) and the corresponding meteorological measurements, a statistical relationship for forecasting the abundance was derived. The model explains 84% of the variation of the data set. The remaining 16% might be explained by the landscape effects and agricultural practices, such as crop protection. Based on the statistical relationship between the mean winter air temperature and the abundance of the cabbage stem weevil in the winter oilseed rape, risk maps were derived as a forecast tool for practical farming.

scholarly journals Web-Enabled Spatial Decision Analysis Using Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claus Rinner ◽  
Jacek Malczewski
Keyword(s):  
Graphical Representation ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Fine Tuning ◽  
Weighted Averaging ◽  
Decision Strategy ◽  
Spatial Decision Support ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Ordered Weighted Averaging ◽  
Exploratory Approach

This paper presents a spatial decision support tool that implements the Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) method. OWA is a family of multicriteria evaluation operators characterised by two sets of weights: criterion importance weights and order weights. We propose a highly interactive way of choosing, modifying, and fine-tuning the decision strategy defined by the order weights. This exploratory approach to OWA is supported by a graphical representation of the operator's behaviour in terms of decision risk and tradeoff/dispersion between criteria. Our prototype implementation is based on the CommonGIS software, and thus, Web-enabled and working with vector data. We successfully demonstrate online, exploratory support of spatial decision strategies using a data set of skiing resorts in Wallis, Switzerland.<div><br></div><div>This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Journal of Geographical Systems. The final authenticated version is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s101090300095 <br></div>

scholarly journals Genetic and nongenetic factors associated with the fate of maiden ewe lambs: slaughtered without ever lambing versus retained for breeding1

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 242-249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noirin McHugh ◽  
Thierry Pabiou ◽  
Kevin McDermott ◽  
Eamon Wall ◽  
Donagh P Berry
Keyword(s):  
Mixed Models ◽  
Variance Components ◽  
Threshold Model ◽  
Genetic Correlations ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Ewe Lambs ◽  
Ewe Lamb ◽  
First Time

Abstract The decision on which ewe lamb to retain versus which to sell is likely to vary by producer based on personal preference. What is not known, however, is if any commonality exists among producers in the characteristics of ewe lambs that influence their eventual fate. The objective of the present study was to determine what genetic and nongenetic factors associate with the fate of maiden ewe lambs. The fate of each ewe lamb born in the present study was defined as either subsequently: 1) having lambed in the flock, or 2) was slaughtered without any recorded lambing event. A total of 9,705 ewe lamb records from 41 crossbred flocks were used. The logit of the odds of the ewe lamb being retained for lambing was modeled using logistic regression. Variance components were then estimated for the binary trait representing the fate of the ewe lamb using animal linear and threshold mixed models. The genetic correlations between fate of the ewe lamb and preweaning, weaning, or postweaning liveweight were also estimated. From the edited data set, 45% of ewe lambs born entered the mature flock as ewes. Ewe lambs reared as singles, with greater levels of heterosis but lower levels of recombination loss, born to dams that lambed for the first time as hoggets, with greater breed proportion of the Belclare, Suffolk, Texel, and Llyen breeds were more likely (P &lt; 0.001) to eventually lamb in the flock than be slaughtered without ever lambing. Irrespective of the age of the animal when weighed, heavier ewe lambs were more likely to eventually lamb (P &lt; 0.001). The genetic SD and direct heritability of fate of the ewe lamb estimated in the univariate linear model was 26.58 percentage units and 0.31 (SE = 0.03), respectively; the heritability was 0.30 when estimated using the threshold model. The corresponding direct heritability of fate of the ewe lamb estimated in the bivariate analyses with liveweight ranged from 0.29 (SE = 0.03; preweaning weight) to 0.35 (SE = 0.04; postweaning weight). The genetic correlations estimated between fate of the ewe lamb and the liveweight traits were weak to moderate but strengthened as the age of the ewe lamb at weighing increased. Results from this study provide an understanding of the factors producers consider when selecting females for retention versus slaughter which may form useful parameters in the development of a decision support tool to identify suitable ewe lambs for retention.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal Distributions and Associations of Cabbage Stem Weevil (Ceutorhynchus Pallidactylus Marsham, 1802) and Pollen Beetle (Brassicogethes Aeneus Fabricius, 1775) in winter oilseed rape

2017 ◽  
Vol 65 (3) ◽  
pp. 839-847
Author(s):  
Vojtěch Hlavjenka ◽  
Marek Seidenglanz ◽  
Jaroslav Šafář
Keyword(s):  
Oilseed Rape ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Winter Oilseed Rape ◽  
High Tendency ◽  
Pollen Beetle ◽  
Brassicogethes Aeneus ◽  
Males And Females ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Ceutorhynchus Pallidactylus

From 2013 to 2015 the within-field spatio-temporal distributions and interactions between Ceutorhynchus pallidactylus and Brassicogethes aeneus in winter oilseed rape crops were assessed using SADIE analysis (Spatial Analysis by Distance IndicEs) and Quick association analysis. A significant tendency for aggregation was recorded in C. pallidactylus males in the crop in both 2013 and 2015. Females showed a high tendency towards aggregation only in 2013. Both sexes were significantly associated in crops in 2013 and 2015. B. aeneus adults showed a high tendency towards aggregation in all three years. From the three seasons the cumulative distributions (based on the sums of insect catches in traps for the individual dates) of males and females of C. pallidactylus were significantly associated with the cumulative distribution of B. aeneus adults only in 2013. Contrary to this, an almost significant dissociation between cumulative distributions of C. pallidactylus males and B. aeneus adults was recorded in 2014.

scholarly journals The Potential of Intercropping for Multifunctional Crop Protection in Oilseed Rape (Brassica napus L.)

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara E. Emery ◽  
Peter Anderson ◽  
Georg Carlsson ◽  
Hanna Friberg ◽  
Mattias C. Larsson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Brassica Napus ◽  
Oilseed Rape ◽  
Faba Bean ◽  
Crop Protection ◽  
Grain Legumes ◽  
Weed Suppression ◽  
Winter Oilseed Rape ◽  
Brassica Napus L ◽  
Pest Damage

Oilseed rape (OSR; Brassica napus) is a globally important crop which is increasingly under pressure from pests, pathogens and weeds. We investigated the potential of achieving multifunctional crop protection benefits by intercropping oilseed rape with legumes. A field experiment was conducted in which winter oilseed rape was intercropped with the annual frost sensitive legumes berseem clover (Trifolium alexandrinum) or spring faba bean (Vicia faba), or with the winter grain legumes winter faba bean or winter peas (Pisum sativum). We tracked damage to winter oilseed rape by autumn and spring pests (slugs and insects), pathogens, weed biomass, as well as oilseed rape and intercrop yield in each treatment. Intercropping treatments resulted in pest damage that was equivalent or lower than in oilseed rape alone. Follow up field and lab assessments for the frost sensitive legume intercrops provided evidence for a reduction in autumn pest damage to OSR. Each legume intercrop had its own benefits and drawbacks in relation to pest, pathogen and weed suppression, suggesting that the plant species selected for intercropping with oilseed rape should be based on the pests, pathogens and weeds of greatest concern locally to achieve relevant multifunctional benefits. Our study provides a framework for further experiments in which the multifunctional effects of intercropping on pests, pathogens and weeds can be quantified.

scholarly journals Web-Enabled Spatial Decision Analysis Using Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claus Rinner ◽  
Jacek Malczewski
Keyword(s):  
Graphical Representation ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Fine Tuning ◽  
Weighted Averaging ◽  
Decision Strategy ◽  
Spatial Decision Support ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Ordered Weighted Averaging ◽  
Exploratory Approach

This paper presents a spatial decision support tool that implements the Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) method. OWA is a family of multicriteria evaluation operators characterised by two sets of weights: criterion importance weights and order weights. We propose a highly interactive way of choosing, modifying, and fine-tuning the decision strategy defined by the order weights. This exploratory approach to OWA is supported by a graphical representation of the operator's behaviour in terms of decision risk and tradeoff/dispersion between criteria. Our prototype implementation is based on the CommonGIS software, and thus, Web-enabled and working with vector data. We successfully demonstrate online, exploratory support of spatial decision strategies using a data set of skiing resorts in Wallis, Switzerland.<div><br></div><div>This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Journal of Geographical Systems. The final authenticated version is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s101090300095 <br></div>

PROMETHEE

2011 ◽  
pp. 743-750
Author(s):  
Malcolm J. Beynon
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Rank Order ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Computational Procedure ◽  
Preference Ranking ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Pairwise Preference ◽  
Ranking Of Alternatives

PROMETHEE (preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation) introduced in Brans, Mareschal, and Vincke (1984) and Brans, Vincke, and Mareschal (1986), is a multi-criteria decision support tool for the ranking of alternatives based on their values over different criteria. As an outranking method, it quantifies a ranking through the pairwise preference comparison (differences) between the criterion values describing the alternatives. The main initial goal of PROMETHEE was to offer a means of multi-criteria decision support characterised by simplicity and clearness to the decision maker (Brans et al., 1986). PROMETHEE is also considered to have a transparent computational procedure (Georgopoulou, Sarafidis, & Diakoulaki, 1998). These characteristics of PROMETHEE have made it a versatile methodology in many areas of study, including in particular energy management (Pohekar & Ramachandran, 2004; Simon, Brüggemann, & Pudenz, 2004), but also more diverse areas such as decision making in stock trading (Albadvi, Chaharsooghi, & Esfahanipour, 2006) and authentication of food products (Zhang, Ni, Churchill, & Kokot, 2006). Developments on the original PROMETHEE include: an interval version (Le Téno & Mareschal, 1998), a fuzzy version (Radojevic & Petrovic, 1997), and a stochastic version (Marinoni, 2005), as well as its utilisation to elucidate rank uncertainty (Hyde, Maier, & Colby, 2003). These developments have been undertaken to take into account the possible imprecision and distribution of the concomitant criteria values considered. The graphical bi-plot representation called GAIA (geometrical analysis for interactive aid), based on a special type of principal component analysis, was developed to identify the principal criteria that contribute to the rank order of the alternatives when using PROMETHEE (Keller, Massart, & Brans, 1991). Recently, the use of constellation plots has also enabled a visual representation of the preference contribution of the criteria (Beynon, 2008). Concerns and consequences on the use of PROMETHEE were succinctly outlined in De Keyser and Peeters (1996), including how the importance weights of criteria should be interpreted and the effect of adding or deleting an alternative from consideration. A small example data set of alternatives is considered here to illustrate the operational rudiments of PROMETHEE. The acknowledgement of uncertainty in an identified ranking, when employing PROMETHEE, is also demonstrated, using the approach of Hyde et al. (2003) and Hyde and Maier (2006).

The separation of two hymenopteran parasitoids, Tersilochus obscurator and Tersilochus microgaster (Ichneumonidae), of stem-mining pests of winter oilseed rape using DNA, morphometric and ecological data

2005 ◽  
Vol 95 (4) ◽  
pp. 299-307 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Barari ◽  
A.W. Ferguson ◽  
R.W. Piper ◽  
E. Smith ◽  
D.L.J. Quicke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Oilseed Rape ◽  
Taxonomic Status ◽  
Molecular Techniques ◽  
Coi Gene ◽  
Ecological Data ◽  
Winter Oilseed Rape ◽  
Morphometric Characters ◽  
Ceutorhynchus Pallidactylus ◽  
Psylliodes Chrysocephala ◽  
The Uk

AbstractTersilochus obscurator Aubert and Tersilochus microgaster (Szépligeti) are larval endoparasitoids of economically-important stem-mining pests of winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) in Europe. They are difficult to separate morphologically. Their hosts are Ceutorhynchus pallidactylus (Marsham) and Psylliodes chrysocephala Linnaeus, respectively. The parasitoids' taxonomic status, identification, host range and phenology were studied using genetic, morphometric and ecological data. The study used 527 female parasitoids from the UK and Germany, either field-collected in emergence traps or reared from field-collected host larvae. Two morphometric characters, the ovipositor sheath to first metasomal tergite ratio and the percentage of the mesopleuron spanned by the sternaulus, were measured. A 440 bp section of mitochondrial DNA cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) gene was sequenced from 35 parasitoids reared from C. pallidactylus, 20 reared from P. chrysocephala and individuals from two outgroups, Tersilochus heterocerus Thomson and Phradis interstitialis Thomson. Distinct and invariable COI sequences corresponded exclusively to each parasitoid group, confirming that T. obscurator and T. microgaster are discrete species. Measurements of host-reared and COI-sequenced specimens indicated that the ranges of both morphometric characters overlapped between species. Using these ranges as criteria, all but 3.6% of UK specimens and 2% of German specimens were identifiable to species without reference to host or phenology. There were differences in emergence phenology in the UK, adult T. microgaster emerging from winter diapause by 29 March 2000, T. obscurator emerging between 12 April and 24 May 2000. The value of molecular techniques in the identification of closely-related parasitoid species is discussed.

scholarly journals The Influence of Synthetic Insecticides on the Dynamics of Cabbage Stem Weevil (Ceutorhynchus pallidactylus Marsh.) and Cabbage Pod Weevil (Ceutorhynchus obstrictus Marsh.) in Winter Oilseed Rape

2013 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingrida Grantina ◽  
Inara Turka
Keyword(s):  
Oilseed Rape ◽  
Pest Control ◽  
Large Range ◽  
Development Stage ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Biological Efficiency ◽  
Pest Species ◽  
Winter Oilseed Rape ◽  
Current Application ◽  
Ceutorhynchus Pallidactylus

Abstract Oilseed rape is affected by a complex of different crucifer pests. Cruciferous stem weevils (Ceuthorhynchus spp.) are relatively new oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) pests in Latvia. Although currently brassica pest control is performed according to the appearance of first specimens of Ceutorhynchus or other brassica pests, for a large number of insecticide treatments a positive biological efficiency is observed (however, within a large range – 8–98%). The current application of brassica pest control may be described as preventive, which is not permitted in the integrated pest management system. The present research estimates biological efficiency and application time of synthetic pyrethroid (PIR) and combined pyrethroid+neonicotonoid (PIR+NNI) to control winter oilseed rape pest species, as well as stimulates discussion about their use. Evaluation of the monitoring data of Ceutorhynchus spp. showed that C. typhae and C. sulcicollis emerge first, but damaging species C. pallidactylus – a week later. Consequently it is not only necessary to monitor the weevils but also to identify their species in order to decide on the control measures. The combined PIR+NNI insecticide proved to have the highest biological efficiency for cabbage stem weevil control. Both classes of synthetic insecticides revealed a considerable biological efficiency for weevil control. The research suggests that effectiveness of insecticide is affected by many factors: plant development stage during the spray, agroclimatic conditions, spray quality, field location and size, distribution of pests, and crop rotation.

scholarly journals A Multivariable Prediction Model to Select Colorectal Surgical Patients for Co-Management

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (13) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Bayão Horta ◽  
Carlos Geraldes ◽  
Cátia Salgado ◽  
Susana Vieira ◽  
Miguel Xavier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Clinical Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Clinical Decision ◽  
Surgical Patients ◽  
Outcome Variable ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Clinical Decision Support Tool

Introduction: Increased life expectancy leads to older and frailer surgical patients. Co-management between medical and surgical specialities has proven favourable in complex situations. Selection of patients for co-management is full of difficulties. The aim of this study was to develop a clinical decision support tool to select surgical patients for co-management.Material and Methods: Clinical data was collected from patient electronic health records with an ICD-9 code for colorectal surgery from January 2012 to December 2015 at a hospital in Lisbon. The outcome variable consists in co-management signalling. A dataset from 344 patients was used to develop the prediction model and a second data set from 168 patients was used for external validation.Results: Using logistic regression modelling the authors built a five variable (age, burden of comorbidities, ASA-PS status, surgical risk and recovery time) predictive referral model for co-management. This model has an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.81 - 0.90), a predictive Brier score of 0.11, a sensitivity of 0.80, a specificity of 0.82 and an accuracy of 81.3%.Discussion: Early referral of high-risk patients may be valuable to guide the decision on the best level of post-operative clinical care. We developed a simple bedside decision tool with a good discriminatory and predictive performance in order to select patients for comanagement.Conclusion: A simple bed-side clinical decision support tool of patients for co-management is viable, leading to potential improvement in early recognition and management of postoperative complications and reducing the ‘failure to rescue’. Generalizability to other clinical settings requires adequate customization and validation.

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