Prediction of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity via Bayesian variable selection and Bayesian model averaging

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xun Li
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Variable Selection ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Bayesian Variable Selection ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

scholarly journals Dynamical Simulations of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Using Observed Low-Frequency SST Oscillation Imposed on CMIP5 Model RCP4.5 SST Projections

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (21) ◽  
pp. 8055-8069 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy E. LaRow ◽  
Lydia Stefanova ◽  
Chana Seitz
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
First Century ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

Abstract The effects on early and late twenty-first-century North Atlantic tropical cyclone statistics resulting from imposing the patterns of maximum/minimum phases of the observed Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) onto projected sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from two climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are examined using a 100-km resolution global atmospheric model. By imposing the observed maximum positive and negative phases of the AMO onto two CMIP5 SST projections from the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, this study places bounds on future North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during the early (2020–39) and late (2080–99) twenty-first century. Averaging over both time periods and both AMO phases, the mean named tropical cyclones (NTCs) count increases by 35% when compared to simulations using observed SSTs from 1982 to 2009. The positive AMO simulations produce approximately a 68% increase in mean NTC count, while the negative AMO simulations are statistically indistinguishable from the mean NTC count determined from the 1995–2009 simulations—a period of observed positive AMO phase. Examination of the tropical cyclone track densities shows a statistically significant increase in the tracks along the East Coast of the United States in the future simulations compared to the models’ 1982–2009 climate simulations. The increase occurs regardless of AMO phase, although the negative phase produces higher track densities. The maximum wind speeds increase by 6%, in agreement with other climate change studies. Finally, the NTC-related precipitation is found to increase (approximately by 13%) compared to the 1982–2009 simulations.

Multi-model ensemble forecasting of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity

2016 ◽  
Vol 53 (12) ◽  
pp. 7461-7477 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriele Villarini ◽  
Beda Luitel ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
Joyee Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

scholarly journals Atlantic tropical cyclones downscaled from climate reanalyses show increasing activity over past 150 years

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerry Emanuel
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Model Driven ◽  
Early Portion ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

AbstractHistorical records of Atlantic hurricane activity, extending back to 1851, show increasing activity over time, but much or all of this trend has been attributed to lack of observations in the early portion of the record. Here we use a tropical cyclone downscaling model driven by three global climate analyses that are based mostly on sea surface temperature and surface pressure data. The results support earlier statistically-based inferences that storms were undercounted in the 19th century, but in contrast to earlier work, show increasing tropical cyclone activity through the period, interrupted by a prominent hurricane drought in the 1970s and 80 s that we attribute to anthropogenic aerosols. In agreement with earlier work, we show that most of the variability of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity over the last century was directly related to regional rather than global climate change. Most metrics of tropical cyclones downscaled over all the tropics show weak and/or insignificant trends over the last century, illustrating the special nature of North Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology.

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