scholarly journals Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand in the U.S. Before, During and Following the Great Recession

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 (061) ◽  
Author(s):  
David Cashin ◽  
◽  
Jamie Lenney ◽  
Byron Lutz ◽  
William Peterman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The U.S

Fiscal policy and aggregate demand in the USA before, during, and following the Great Recession

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 1519-1558 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Cashin ◽  
Jamie Lenney ◽  
Byron Lutz ◽  
William Peterman
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Usa

scholarly journals Recent Trends in U.S. Childbearing Intentions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caroline Sten Hartnett ◽  
Alison Gemmill
Keyword(s):  
National Survey ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Population Composition ◽  
Important Contributor ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Childbearing Intentions ◽  
Family Growth ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
Shed Light ◽  
The U.S

The U.S. period TFR has declined steadily since the Great Recession, to 1.73 children in 2018, the lowest level since the 1970s. This pattern could mean that current childbearing cohorts will end up with fewer children than previous cohorts or this same pattern could be an artifact of a tempo distortion if individuals are simply postponing births they plan to eventually have. In this research note, we use data on current parity and future intended births from the 2006-2017 National Survey of Family Growth to shed light on this issue. We find that total intended parity declined (from 2.26 in 2006-2010 to 2.16 children in 2013-2017), and the proportion of women intending to remain childless increased slightly. Decomposition indicated that the decline was not due to changes in population composition, but rather changes in the subgroup rates themselves. The decline in intended parity is particularly notable at young ages and among Latinxs. These results indicate that although tempo distortion is likely an important contributor to the decline in TFR, it is not the sole explanation: U.S. individuals are intending to have fewer children than their immediate predecessors, which may translate into a decline in cohort completed parity. However, the change in intended parity is modest and average intended parity remains above two children.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Effects of the Home Affordable Modification Program

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Cóndor
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Heterogeneous Agents ◽  
Idiosyncratic Risk ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Heterogeneous Agents Model ◽  
The U.S

The Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) was a loan modification program introduced in 2009, in the U.S., to assist highly indebted homeowners with avoiding foreclosure. This program also encouraged private lenders to offer more sustainable modifications. This paper studies the role of HAMP in preventing higher foreclosures rates during and after the Great Recession, in the context of a general-equilibrium heterogeneous-agents model with two types of households (Borrowers and Savers), uninsurable idiosyncratic risk, and both private and HAMP modifications. The main result is that, without HAMP, the peak in the foreclosure rate could have been 50% larger (3.2 percent vs 2.2 percent in data).

Resolving a Workforce Crisis in the U.S. Roofing Industry

2020 ◽  
pp. 191-207
Author(s):  
John G. Schehl
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Research Study ◽  
Trade Association ◽  
State University ◽  
Arizona State University ◽  
Workforce Shortage ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Labor Statistics ◽  
Bureau Of Labor Statistics ◽  
The U.S

The National Roofing Contractors Association (NRCA), a nonprofit construction trade association established in 1886, was challenged to find a solution to overcome a severe industry workforce shortage that emerged as the economy recovered from the great recession. The NRCA leadership, staff, and other industry stakeholders focused on developing strategies to address the workforce crisis head-on and committed resources to develop a series of performance-based programs to overcome the crisis. The new initiatives relied on limited U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data to support development decisions. Aware that the available BLS data was insufficient, NRCA commissioned the Arizona State University (ASU) to conduct the roofing industry's first ever comprehensive demographics research study. New data gleaned from the research changed not only NRCA's approach to resolving the workforce crisis, but it may potentially change how the entire roofing industry operates.

scholarly journals The Aggregate Implications of Regional Business Cycles

Econometrica ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 87 (6) ◽  
pp. 1789-1833 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Beraja ◽  
Erik Hurst ◽  
Juan Ospina
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Aggregate Data ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
Wage Dynamics ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Wage Stickiness

Making inferences about aggregate business cycles from regional variation alone is difficult because of economic channels and shocks that differ between regional and aggregate economies. However, we argue that regional business cycles contain valuable information that can help discipline models of aggregate fluctuations. We begin by documenting a strong relationship across U.S. states between local employment and wage growth during the Great Recession. This relationship is much weaker in U.S. aggregates. Then, we present a methodology that combines such regional and aggregate data in order to estimate a medium‐scale New Keynesian DSGE model. We find that aggregate demand shocks were important drivers of aggregate employment during the Great Recession, but the wage stickiness necessary for them to account for the slow employment recovery and the modest fall in aggregate wages is inconsistent with the flexibility of wages we observe across U.S. states. Finally, we show that our methodology yields different conclusions about the causes of aggregate employment and wage dynamics between 2007 and 2014 than either estimating our model with aggregate data alone or performing back‐of‐the‐envelope calculations that directly extrapolate from well‐identified regional elasticities.

scholarly journals Debt Constraints and the Labor Wedge

2016 ◽  
Vol 106 (5) ◽  
pp. 548-553 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Kehoe ◽  
Virgiliu Midrigan ◽  
Elena Pastorino
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Household Debt ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Labor Wedge ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
The U.S

Changes in household debt and employment across regions of the U.S. during the Great Recession are highly correlated: regions where the decrease in household debt was most pronounced were also regions where the decline in employment was most severe. We show that the drop in employment in the regions that have experienced the largest decrease in household debt is mostly accounted for by changes in the labor wedge (deviations from a static consumption-leisure choice) as opposed to changes in real wages. We argue that such a pattern is consistent with fluctuations in debt constrain01/2ts in a standard Bewley-Aiyagari model.

Failing the Test? The Flexible U.S. Job Market in the Great Recession

2013 ◽  
Vol 650 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard B. Freeman
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Full Employment ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Job Market ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Duration Of Unemployment ◽  
Market Driven ◽  
Labor Institutions ◽  
The U.S ◽  
American Labor

The Great Recession tested the ability of the “great U.S. jobs machine” to limit the severity of unemployment in a major economic downturn and to restore full employment quickly afterward. In the crisis the American labor market failed to live up to expectations. The level and duration of unemployment increased substantially in the downturn, and the growth of jobs was slow and anemic in the recovery. This article documents these failures and their consequences for workers. The U.S. performance in the Great Recession contravenes conventional views of the virtues of market-driven flexibility compared to institution-driven labor adjustments and the notion that weak labor institutions and greater market flexibility offer the best road to economic success in a modern capitalist economy.

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