scholarly journals Real Wage Dynamics and the Phillips Curve

2000 ◽  
Vol 2000 (02) ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Karl Whelan ◽  
1994 ◽  
Vol 26 (9) ◽  
pp. 865-875 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth Clark ◽  
Derek Leslie
Keyword(s):  

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 65-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergey Slobodyan ◽  
Raf Wouters

This paper evaluates the empirical performance of a medium-scale DSGE model with agents forming expectations using small forecasting models updated by the Kalman filter. The adaptive learning model fits the data better than the rational expectations (RE) model. Beliefs about the inflation persistence explain the observed decline in the mean and the volatility of inflation as well as Phillips curve flattening. Learning about inflation results in lower estimates for the persistence of the exogenous shocks that drive price and wage dynamics in the RE version of the model. Expectations based on small forecasting models are closely related to the survey evidence on inflation expectations. (JEL C53, D83, D84, E13, E17, E31)


2000 ◽  
Vol 39 (4II) ◽  
pp. 1111-1126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Afia Malik ◽  
Ather Maqsood Ahmed

Information on wage levels is essential in evaluating the living standards and conditions of work and life of the workers. Since nominal wage fails to explain the purchasing power of employees, real wage is considered as a major indicator of employees purchasing power and can be used as proxy for their level of income. Any fluctuations in the real wage rate have a significant impact on poverty and the distribution of income. When used in relation with other economic variables, for instance employment or output they are valuable indicators in the analysis of business cycles. There has been a long debate regarding the relationship between real wages and the employment (output). Despite the apparent simplicity, the relationship between real wages and output has remained deceptive both theoretically and empirically. Keynes (1936) viewed cyclical movements in employment along a stable labour demand schedule thus indicating counter cyclical real wages. His deduction is in line with sticky wages and sticky expectations, which augments models like Phillips curve. In these models real wages behaved as counter-cyclical as nominal wages are slow to adjust during recession (decrease in aggregate demand and associated slowdown in price growth). Stickiness of wages or expectations shifts the labour supply over the business cycles [Abraham and Haltiwanger (1995)]. Barro (1990) and Christiano and Eichenbaum (1992) have associated these labour supply shifts with intertemporal labour-leisure substitution. This in response to temporary changes in real interest rates (fiscal policy shocks) could yield counter-cyclical real wages. However, Long and Plosser (1983) and Kydland and Prescott (1982) while studying the real business cycle models highlight on the technology shocks which leads to pro-cyclical real wages.


2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 96-119 ◽  

The paper discusses the real wage elasticity to unemployment and GDP in Russia. An approach based on panel microdata about earnings of individuals has been applied. This methodology helps to avoid a number of difficulties that are created when aggregated analytical data on the average wage dynamics are used. The study has indicated some conclusions. Firstly, a review of estimations from other countries based on the same methodology is provided. The results confirm the conclusion about higher wage elasticity to unemployment in Russia than in many developed countries. However, the real wage elasticity to GDP in Russia is comparable with the same elasticity in other countries. Secondly, the use of microdata facilitates the evaluation of real wage flexibility for particular groups of workers and for different types of jobs: in other words, the heterogeneity of wage flexibility. As shown by calculations, wage flexibility is higher for young men living in the city and working in the private or informal sector of the economy. Moreover, it was found that wage flexibility of workers who have changed jobs during the year is higher than that of those who have remained with the same employer. Thus, interfirm mobility contributes to high wage flexibility in Russia: during economic growth employees, on average, newly start better paid jobs, whereas during crises they switch to low-paid jobs.


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