Climate change and shifting arrival date of migratory birds over a century in the northern Great Plains

2015 ◽  
Vol 127 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven E. Travers ◽  
Bryan Marquardt ◽  
Nicole J. Zerr ◽  
James B. Finch ◽  
Mikayla J. Boche ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Migratory Birds ◽  
Northern Great Plains ◽  
Arrival Date

scholarly journals Phenology of two interdependent traits in migratory birds in response to climate change

2015 ◽  
Vol 282 (1807) ◽  
pp. 20150288 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadiah Pardede Kristensen ◽  
Jacob Johansson ◽  
Jörgen Ripa ◽  
Niclas Jonzén
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Resource Availability ◽  
Migratory Birds ◽  
Egg Laying ◽  
The Other ◽  
Sufficient Evidence ◽  
Hatching Date ◽  
Arrival Date ◽  
Body Of Knowledge ◽  
Asynchronous Hatching

In migratory birds, arrival date and hatching date are two key phenological markers that have responded to global warming. A body of knowledge exists relating these traits to evolutionary pressures. In this study, we formalize this knowledge into general mathematical assumptions, and use them in an ecoevolutionary model. In contrast to previous models, this study novelty accounts for both traits—arrival date and hatching date—and the interdependence between them, revealing when one, the other or both will respond to climate. For all models sharing the assumptions, the following phenological responses will occur. First, if the nestling-prey peak is late enough, hatching is synchronous with, and arrival date evolves independently of, prey phenology. Second, when resource availability constrains the length of the pre-laying period, hatching is adaptively asynchronous with prey phenology. Predictions for both traits compare well with empirical observations. In response to advancing prey phenology, arrival date may advance, remain unchanged, or even become delayed; the latter occurring when egg-laying resources are only available relatively late in the season. The model shows that asynchronous hatching and unresponsive arrival date are not sufficient evidence that phenological adaptation is constrained. The work provides a framework for exploring microevolution of interdependent phenological traits.

scholarly journals Climate Change Perceptions and Observations of Agricultural Stakeholders in the Northern Great Plains

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 1687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruna Grimberg ◽  
Selena Ahmed ◽  
Colter Ellis ◽  
Zachariah Miller ◽  
Fabian Menalled
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Northern Great Plains ◽  
Change Perceptions

scholarly journals Model-based scenario planning to inform climate change adaptation in the Northern Great Plains—Final report

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy J. Symstad ◽  
Brian W. Miller ◽  
Jonathan M. Friedman ◽  
Nicholas A. Fisichelli ◽  
Andrea J. Ray ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Northern Great Plains ◽  
Final Report ◽  
Model Based

scholarly journals Burrowing Owl (Athene cunicularia) nest phenology influenced by drought on nonbreeding grounds

The Auk ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 137 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Catie M Porro ◽  
Martha J Desmond ◽  
Julie A Savidge ◽  
Fitsum Abadi ◽  
Kirsten K Cruz-McDonnell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Migratory Birds ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Athene Cunicularia ◽  
Breeding Sites ◽  
Burrowing Owl ◽  
Nest Initiation

Abstract Migratory birds are demonstrating changes in phenology linked to climate change. Understanding these changes requires connecting events that occur over the multiple regions occupied during their annual cycle. The Burrowing Owl (Athene cunicularia) is a species of concern in North America, with pronounced declines in regions of the Great Plains. Using a dataset that spanned 10 breeding sites from South Dakota to northern Mexico in various years during 1989–2017, we observed both advances and delays in nesting along with increasing variation in nest initiation dates. We examined the effects of a large-scale climate system (El Niño Southern Oscillation), drought, and local weather patterns throughout the annual cycle as potential predictors of early and late nesting. Moisture conditions during the winter and spring migratory period had the greatest influence on nest phenology. Years with more intense drought on winter and migratory grounds increased the probability of nests initiating late relative to early. Correspondingly, wet conditions were associated with an increased probability of early nest initiation. Drought likely has cascading ecological effects that negatively influence food abundance for Burrowing Owls, resulting in delays in the ability of individuals to meet energetic demands required for migration. How climate change will impact Burrowing Owl phenology is important considering a projected increase in the magnitude and frequency of drought and declining owl population trends.

scholarly journals Climate change and the optimal arrival of migratory birds

2006 ◽  
Vol 274 (1607) ◽  
pp. 269-274 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niclas Jonzén ◽  
Anders Hedenström ◽  
Per Lundberg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Arrival Time ◽  
Migratory Birds ◽  
Life History Evolution ◽  
Food Distribution ◽  
Arrival Date ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Mean And Variance ◽  
The Mean

Recent climate change has sparked an interest in the timing of biological events, which is a general problem in life-history evolution. Reproduction in many organisms breeding in seasonal environments, e.g. migratory birds, is dependent on the exploitation of a short but rich food supply. If the seasonal timing of the food peak advances owing to climate change, then one would expect the bird to track those changes, hence, initiate migration and breeding earlier. However, when there is competition for territories and a risk of pre-breeding mortality, the optimal response to a shifting food distribution is no longer obvious. We develop a theoretical model to study how the optimal arrival time depends on the mean and variance of the food distribution, the degree of competition for territories and the risk of mortality. In general, the optimal shift in arrival date should never be as extreme as the shift in food peak date. Our results also show that we should expect the high variation of trends in arrival date observed among migratory birds, even if migration and information about climate change were unconstrained.

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