scholarly journals On the Qualitative Comparison of Decisions Having Positive and Negative Features

2008 ◽  
Vol 32 ◽  
pp. 385-417 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Dubois ◽  
H. Fargier ◽  
J. Bonnefon

Making a decision is often a matter of listing and comparing positive and negative arguments. In such cases, the evaluation scale for decisions should be considered bipolar, that is, negative and positive values should be explicitly distinguished. That is what is done, for example, in Cumulative Prospect Theory. However, contraryto the latter framework that presupposes genuine numerical assessments, human agents often decide on the basis of an ordinal ranking of the pros and the cons, and by focusing on the most salient arguments. In other terms, the decision process is qualitative as well as bipolar. In this article, based on a bipolar extension of possibility theory, we define and axiomatically characterize several decision rules tailored for the joint handling of positive and negative arguments in an ordinal setting. The simplest rules can be viewed as extensions of the maximin and maximax criteria to the bipolar case, and consequently suffer from poor decisive power. More decisive rules that refine the former are also proposed. These refinements agree both with principles of efficiency and with the spirit of order-of-magnitude reasoning, that prevails in qualitative decision theory. The most refined decision rule uses leximin rankings of the pros and the cons, and the ideas of counting arguments of equal strength and cancelling pros by cons. It is shown to come down to a special case of Cumulative Prospect Theory, and to subsume the ``Take the Best'' heuristic studied by cognitive psychologists.

Author(s):  
Nahla Ben Amor ◽  
Helene Fargier ◽  
Régis Sabbadin

The present paper proposes the first definition of mixed equilibrium for ordinal games. This definition naturally extends possibilistic (single agent) decision theory. This allows us to provide a unifying view of single and multi-agent qualitative decision theory. Our first contribution is to show that ordinal games always admit a possibilistic mixed equilibrium, which can be seen as a qualitative counterpart to mixed (probabilistic) equilibrium.Then, we show that a possibilistic mixed equilibrium can be computed in polynomial time (wrt the size of the game), which contrasts with pure Nash or mixed probabilistic equilibrium computation in cardinal game theory.The definition we propose is thus operational in two ways: (i) it tackles the case when no pure Nash equilibrium exists in an ordinal game; and (ii) it allows an efficient computation of a mixed equilibrium.


Econometrica ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 88 (4) ◽  
pp. 1363-1409
Author(s):  
B. Douglas Bernheim ◽  
Charles Sprenger

Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), the leading behavioral account of decisionmaking under uncertainty, avoids the dominance violations implicit in Prospect Theory (PT) by assuming that the probability weight applied to a given outcome depends on its ranking. We devise a simple and direct nonparametric method for measuring the change in relative probability weights resulting from a change in payoff ranks. We find no evidence that these weights are even modestly sensitive to ranks. Conventional calibrations of CPT preferences imply that the percentage change in probability weights should be an order of magnitude larger than we observe. It follows either that probability weighting is not rank‐dependent, or that the weighting function is nearly linear. Nonparametric measurement of the change in relative probability weights resulting from changes in probabilities rules out the second possibility. Additional tests nevertheless indicate that the dominance patterns predicted by PT do not arise. We reconcile these findings by positing a form of complexity aversion that generalizes the well‐known certainty effect.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas A. Neubauer ◽  
Torsten Hauffe ◽  
Daniele Silvestro ◽  
Jens Schauer ◽  
Dietrich Kadolsky ◽  
...  

AbstractThe Cretaceous–Paleogene mass extinction event 66 million years ago eradicated three quarters of marine and terrestrial species globally. However, previous studies based on vertebrates suggest that freshwater biota were much less affected. Here we assemble a time series of European freshwater gastropod species occurrences and inferred extinction rates covering the past 200 million years. We find that extinction rates increased by more than one order of magnitude during the Cretaceous–Paleogene mass extinction, which resulted in the extinction of 92.5% of all species. The extinction phase lasted 5.4 million years and was followed by a recovery period of 6.9 million years. However, present extinction rates in European freshwater gastropods are three orders of magnitude higher than even these revised estimates for the Cretaceous–Paleogene mass extinction. Our results indicate that, unless substantial conservation effort is directed to freshwater ecosystems, the present extinction crisis will have a severe impact to freshwater biota for millions of years to come.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Ning Tao ◽  
Duan Xiaodong ◽  
An Lu ◽  
Gou Tao

A disruption management method based on cumulative prospect theory is proposed for the urgent with deteriorating effect arrival in flexible job shop scheduling problem (FJSP). First, the mathematical model of problem is established with minimizing the completion time of urgent order, minimizing the total process time of the system and minimizing the total cost as the target. Then, the cumulative prospect theory equation of the urgent arrival in job shop scheduling process is induced designed. Based on the selected model, an optimized multi-phase quantum particle swarm algorithm (MQPSO) is proposed for selecting processing route. Finally, using Solomon example simulation and company Z riveting shop example as the study object, the performance of the proposed method is analyzed. It is compared with the current common rescheduling methods, and the results verify that the method proposed in this paper not only meets the goal of the optimized objects, but improves the practical requirements for the stability of production and processing system during urgent arrival. Lastly, the optimized multiphase quantum particle swarm algorithm is used to solve disruption management of urgent arrival problem. Through instance analysis and comparison, the effectiveness and efficiency of urgent arrival disruption management method with deteriorating effect are verified.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 064101
Author(s):  
Jicheng Liu ◽  
Zhenzhen Wang ◽  
Yu Yin ◽  
Yinghuan Li ◽  
Yunyuan Lu

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