scholarly journals CEE’s export instability toward East Asian markets: Evidence from panel ARDL models

2017 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-115
Author(s):  
Shoiw-Mei Tseng
Keyword(s):  
Debt Crisis ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Geographic Concentration ◽  
Dynamic Economy ◽  
Panel Ardl ◽  
Export Policy ◽  
Catching Up ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Exports play a significant role in the economic catching-up transition in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The East Asian market has emerged for CEE’s exports not only because of its dynamic economy, but also because of the European debt crisis, the political tension between Ukraine and Russia, and the recent threat of terrorism. This study utilises panel ARDL models to estimate the long-run and short-run relationships between export instability and commodity concentration and geographic concentration. The datasets cover the 2004–2014 period for the trade of all the CEE countries with 10 East Asian marketplaces. The results of the causal relationships show significance in the long-run, but not in the short-run. This study suggests that the CEE export policy toward East Asia is likely to consider the impact of trade concentrations on export instability.

scholarly journals R&D Expenditure R&D Expenditure as an Accelerator of Economic Growth with Special Reference to Developing Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tariq Mahmood Ali ◽  
Adiqa Kausar Kiani ◽  
Tariq Bashir ◽  
Talah Numan Khan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Panel Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
D Investment

Purpose: In this network age, among the other factors which increase economic growth, the R&D activities, a pivotal and effective factor, carried out by a country. The present study attempts to investigate the empirical R&D expenditure-economic growth nexus in developing and developed economies, and also provides useful insight about how R&D investment works to enhance the economic growth of a country. Design/Methodology/Approach: In this regard, 21 years data of top 100 economies of the world from 1995 to 2015 has been utilized. The Panel ARD Model approach has been preferred to explore the impact of R&D investment on economic growth (GDP). For construction of the estimation model, five different variables are used. In order to accomplish the results, along with analysing the data of 100 countries a whole, analysis has also been made by dividing countries into different categories and groups. Overall, the Panel ARDL test has been performed on nine different groups of countries. Findings: The results reveal that, ceteris paribus, there is a strong positive association between R&D expenditure and economic growth (GDP) in the long-run; 1% increase in GERD leads to 0.07% increase in GDP. However, the impact in the developing countries (0.043%) is lower compared to the developed OECD countries (0.27%). No impact of the R&D expenditure on economic growth is observed in the short-run. Implications/Originality/Value: The study presents some thought-provoking ideas, policy recommendations and implications for the policy makers, planners and researchers, especially in the context of developing economies.  

scholarly journals Do Non-Traditional Income, Size, and Growth Affect the Performance of the Banks?

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 58-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramzan Ali ◽  
Zahir Zahid Butt ◽  
Sami Ullah Butt
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Technique ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Panel Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Purpose- The aim of this study is to examine the impact of non-traditional income, size and growth on the performance of the banks in big three economies of South Asia, as in the modern banking, non-traditional income plays a vital role by acting as a link between bank and its customers. Design- This study utilized the annual data over the period from 1996 to 2015, data were obtained from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). This study examines the long-run as well as the short-run relationship among variables through the statistical technique of Panel ARDL. Findings- The findings of this study showed a significant and positive relationship between non-traditional income and return on assets as well as bank size and return on assets. While the association among the growth and return on assets is negative but significant. Policy Implications- Policy recommendation of this study suggests that banks should also explore new avenues of non-interest valued added services to their customers which will not only facilitate their customers also attract new customers which ultimately enhance the performance of the banks as well as the country.

scholarly journals The role of military expenditure and arms imports in the Greek debt crisis

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eftychia Nikolaidou
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Interesting Case ◽  
Military Expenditure ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Despite the vast amount of empirical work performed on the defense–growth relationship, the impact of military expenditure on public debt is a largely neglected topic. The recent Greek debt crisis brought to the forefront the role of military expenditure as well as the inefficiencies and the inability of the EU to deal with the European debt crisis. This article investigates the role of military expenditure (among other factors) in the evolution of the Greek debt over the period 1970-2011. Greece is a particularly interesting case in this regard, given its high military burden since 1974 and the recent debt crisis that led the country to sign a bail-out package presented by the European Union, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund, which involves extreme austerity measures and cuts in public spending. Employing the ARDL approach to cointegration, this article concludes that military expenditure and arms imports have had an adverse (i.e., increasing) effect on Greek public debt in the short-run, while investment has helped to reduce debt both in the short- and the long-run.

scholarly journals Impact of Investment in Tourism Infrastructure Development on Attracting International Visitors: A Nonlinear Panel ARDL Approach Using Vietnam’s Data

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 131
Author(s):  
Quang Hai Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Panel Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
International Visitors ◽  
The Impact

Investment in tourism infrastructure development to make destinations and services increasingly attractive is considered a key measure in developing a country’s tourist destinations. This paper investigates the impact of investment in tourism infrastructure components on international visitor attraction using data from Vietnam for the period 1995–2019. The results of analyzing panel data by the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach show that, in the long-run, investing in the three components of tourism infrastructure, namely transport and communications infrastructure, the hotel and restaurant industry, and recreation facilities, has a strong and positive impact on international visitor attraction. In addition, different short-run impacts of the three tourism infrastructure components on the whole market and each major international visitor market are also found.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

An Econometric Analysis on the Relationship between Globalisation and Inequality in South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-89
Author(s):  
Jacques de Jongh
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Global Integration ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Distribution Of Resources ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Globalisation has had an unprecedented impact on the development and well-being of societies across the globe. Whilst the process has been lauded for bringing about greater trade specialisation and factor mobility many have also come to raise concerns on its impact in the distribution of resources. For South Africa in particular this has been somewhat of a contentious issue given the country's controversial past and idiosyncratic socio-economic structure. Since 1994 though, considerable progress towards its global integration has been made, however this has largely coincided with the establishment of, arguably, the highest levels of income inequality the world has ever seen. This all has raised several questions as to whether a more financially open and technologically integrated economy has induced greater within-country inequality (WCI). This study therefore has the objective to analyse the impact of the various dimensions of globalisation (economic, social and political) on inequality in South Africa. Secondary annual time series from 1990 to 2018 were used sourced from the World Bank Development indicators database, KOF Swiss Economic Institute and the World Inequality database. By using different measures of inequality (Palma ratios and distribution figures), the study employed two ARDL models to test the long-run relationships with the purpose to ensure the robustness of the results. Likewise, two error correction models (ECM) were used to analyse the short-run dynamics between the variables. As a means of identifying the casual effects between the variables, a Toda-Yamamoto granger causality analysis was utilised. Keywords: ARDL, Inequality, Economic Globalisation; Social Globalisation; South Africa

The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on the Stock Market in the United States (U.S); Evidence from Linear ARDL Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-132
Author(s):  
Aref Emamian
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the stock market in the United States (US), were used. By employing the method of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Annual data from the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, from 1986 to 2017 pertaining to the American economy, the results show that both policies play a significant role in the stock market. We find a significant positive effect of real Gross Domestic Product and the interest rate on the US stock market in the long run and significant negative relationship effect of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and broad money on the US stock market both in the short run and long run. On the other hand, this study only could support the significant positive impact of tax revenue and significant negative impact of real effective exchange rate on the US stock market in the short run while in the long run are insignificant. Keywords: ARDL, monetary policy, fiscal policy, stock market, United States

scholarly journals Economic Development, CO2 Emissions and Energy Use Nexus-Evidence from the Danube Region Countries

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3165
Author(s):  
Eva Litavcová ◽  
Jana Chovancová
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Mutual Cooperation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Danube Region ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study is to examine the empirical cointegration, long-run and short-run dynamics and causal relationships between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in 14 Danube region countries over the period of 1990–2019. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing methodology was applied for each of the examined variables as a dependent variable. Limited by the length of the time series, we excluded two countries from the analysis and obtained valid results for the others for 26 of 36 ARDL models. The ARDL bounds reliably confirmed long-run cointegration between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, and Slovenia. Economic growth and energy consumption have a significant impact on carbon emissions in the long-run in all of these four countries; in the short-run, the impact of economic growth is significant in Austria. Likewise, when examining cointegration between energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in the short-run, a significant contribution of CO2 emissions on energy consumptions for seven countries was found as a result of nine valid models. The results contribute to the information base essential for making responsible and informed decisions by policymakers and other stakeholders in individual countries. Moreover, they can serve as a platform for mutual cooperation and cohesion among countries in this region.

scholarly journals Mobile Money Use: The Impact of Macroeconomic Policy and Regulation

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Lorna Katusiime
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Mobile Money ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the effects of macroeconomic policy and regulatory environment on mobile money usage. Specifically, we develop an autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the effect of key macroeconomic variables and mobile money tax on mobile money usage in Uganda. Using monthly data spanning the period March 2009 to September 2020, we find that in the short run, mobile money usage is positively affected by inflation while financial innovation, exchange rate, interest rates and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage in Uganda. In the long run, mobile money usage is positively affected by economic activity, inflation and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis while mobile money customer balances, interest rate, exchange rate, financial innovation and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage.

scholarly journals Do Erratic Rainfalls Hamper Grain Production? Analysis of Supply Response of Rice to Price and Non-Price Factors

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1463
Author(s):  
Ghulam Mustafa ◽  
Azhar Abbas ◽  
Bader Alhafi Alotaibi ◽  
Fahd O. Aldosri
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Supply Response ◽  
Target Time ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Increasing rice production has become one of the ultimate goals for South Asian countries. The yield and area under rice production are also facing threats due to the consequences of climate change such as erratic rainfall and seasonal variation. Thus, the main aim of this work was to find out the supply response of rice in Malaysia in relation to both price and non-price factors. To achieve this target, time series analysis was conducted on data from 1970 to 2014 using cointegration, unit root test, and the vector error correction model. The results showed that the planted area and rainfall have a significant effect on rice production; however, the magnitude of the impact of rainfall is less conspicuous for off-season (season 2) rice as compared to main-season rice (season 1). The speed of adjustment from short-run to long-run for season-1 rice production is almost two-and-a-half years (five production seasons), while for season-2 production, it is only about one-and-a-half year (three production seasons). Consequently, the study findings imply the supply of water to be enhanced through better water infrastructure for both seasons. Moreover, the area under season 2 is continuously declining to the point where the government has to make sure that farmers are able to cultivate the same area for rice production by providing uninterrupted supply of critical inputs, particularly water, seed and fertilizers.

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