scholarly journals A counterfactual analysis of regulatory changes in Hungary: Could the FX lending crisis have been avoided?

2016 ◽  
Vol 66 (2) ◽  
pp. 233-259
Author(s):  
Dóra Siklós
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Regulatory Capital ◽  
Regulatory Changes ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Run Up ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

The main purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it aims to estimate the effect of the tightening of regulatory capital requirements on the real economy in periods of credit upswing. Second, it intends to show whether applying a counter-cyclical capital buffer measure as set down in the Basel III rules could have helped to reduce the pace of FX lending growth in Hungary, mitigating the buildup of vulnerabilities in the run-up to the global financial crisis. In order to answer these questions, we use a Vector Autoregression-based approach with the aim of understanding the impact of shocks to capital adequacy in the pre-crisis period. Our results suggest that although regulatory authorities could have slowed down the increase in lending temporarily, they would not have been able to avoid the upswing of FX lending by requiring counter-cyclical capital buffers even if such a tool had been available and even if they had reacted quickly to accelerating credit growth. Our results also suggest that a more pronounced tightening might have reduced FX lending substantially, but at the expense of real GDP growth. The reason is that unsustainable fiscal policy led to a trade-off between economic growth and the build-up of new vulnerabilities in the form of FX lending.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Procyclicality of Chinese Banking and the Countercyclical Buffer of Basel III

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Yufeng Li ◽  
Zhongfei Li
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Basel Iii ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Regulatory Capital ◽  
Economy Growth ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Chinese Banking

Since the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, the importance of the procyclicality in the banking sector has been highlighted. One of the Basel III objectives is to promote countercyclical buffers and reduce procyclicality. We apply time-varying copula combined with GARCH model to test the existence of asymmetric procyclicality of Chinese banking. The results show that the procyclicality of Chinese banking is asymmetric, where the dependence between loan and economy growth is more correlated during the decline stage than the rise stage of economy. Based on this asymmetry, we suggest that the authority can use high frequent index for signalling the start point of releasing countercyclical buffer and accelerate the releasing pace to avoid the supply of credit being constrained by regulatory capital requirements in downturns.

scholarly journals Developing “best practices” for bankers’ pay in line with Basel III.

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 7-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peiyi Yu ◽  
Jessica Hong Yang ◽  
Nada Kakabadse
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Incentive Compensation ◽  
Basel Iii ◽  
Bank Capital ◽  
Bank Executives ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This paper proposes hybrid capital securities as a significant part of senior bank executive incentive compensation in light of Basel III, a new global regulatory standard on bank capital adequacy and liquidity agreed by the members of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. The committee developed Basel III in a response to the deficiencies in financial regulation brought about by the global financial crisis. Basel III strengthens bank capital requirements and introduces new regulatory requirements on bank liquidity and bank leverage. The hybrid bank capital securities we propose for bank executives’ compensation are preferred shares and subordinated debt that the June 2004 Basel II regulatory framework recognised as other admissible forms of capital. The past two decades have witnessed dramatic increase in performance-related pay in the banking industry. Stakeholders such as shareholders, debtholders and regulators criticise traditional cash and equity-based compensation for encouraging bank executives’ excessive risk taking and short-termism, which has resulted in the failure of risk management in high profile banks during the global financial crisis. Paying compensation in the form of hybrid bank capital securities may align the interests of executives with those of stakeholders and help banks regain their reputation for prudence after years of aggressive risk-taking. Additionally, banks are desperately seeking to raise capital in order to bolster balance sheets damaged by the ongoing credit crisis. Tapping their own senior employees with large incentive compensation packages may be a viable additional source of capital that is politically acceptable in times of large-scale bailouts of the financial sector and economically wise as it aligns the interests of the executives with the need for a stable financial system.

scholarly journals The Determinants of Credit Risk: An Evidence from ASEAN and GCC Islamic Banks

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Faridah Najuna Misman ◽  
M. Ishaq Bhatti
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Generalized Least Squares ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Regulatory Capital ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

In less than a decade, the Islamic Banking (IB) industry has become an essential part of the global financial system. During the last ten years, the IB industry has witnessed changes in economic conditions and proved to be resilient during the periods of financial crisis. This paper aims to examine the important issues related to credit risk in selected Islamic banks in nine countries from Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) regions. It employs the generalized least squares panel data regression, to estimate the ratio of non-performance financing to total financing as dependent variables and bank specific variables (BSV) to determine the credit risk. It uses 12 years of unbalanced panel data from 40 different Islamic banks. The overall findings show that financing quality has a significant positive effect on credit risk. It is observed that the larger IBs owned more assets with lower credit risk compared to smaller banks. The bank’s age is also an important factor influencing the credit risk level. Moreover, regulatory capital significantly reduces the credit risk exposure adherence to the minimum regulatory capital requirements which help IBs to manage their credit risk exposures. It was also observed that IBs were not affected by the global financial crisis due to less credit risk compared to the conventional banks.

scholarly journals Investors’ expectations around quantitative easing: does liquidity injection affect European banks equally?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Longo ◽  
Antonio Parbonetti ◽  
Amedeo Pugliese
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Regulatory Capital ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Asset Portfolio ◽  
European Banks ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

AbstractThe role of liquidity in the banking industry is increasingly under the spotlight since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2007. Prior evidence offers contrasting findings on the role played by liquidity in banks: whilst it ensures systemic financial stability, at the same time it raises agency costs. Notwithstanding this, European banks benefited from a generous liquidity injection following the launch of the Quantitative Easing (QE) programme by the European Central Bank (ECB) in 2015–2016. We leverage on the release of the QE and investigate whether investors’ reactions to the announcements of new liquidity injections vary according to bank-level characteristics of the European banks: namely, their financial soundness, asset portfolio quality and the level of transparency. Our findings document an overall negative market reaction to the QE announcements; at a more fine-grained level of analysis we highlight that banks falling short of the regulatory requirements are not expected to benefit from additional liquidity. This study contributes to the literature on the role of liquidity in banks by showing important boundary conditions to the beneficial role of liquidity in banks, that is—because of the regulatory capital requirements—liquidity is only valuable to investors if it can be reinvested once constraints are overcome.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Effects of Loan Supply Shocks: Empirical Evidence for Peru

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
Jefferson Martínez ◽  
Gabriel Rodríguez
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Growth Variability ◽  
Identification Schemes ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Sign Restrictions ◽  
Loan Supply ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

This paper quantifies and assesses the impact of an adverse loan supply (LS) shock on Peru's main macroeconomic aggregates using a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model in combination with an identification scheme with sign restrictions. The main results indicate that an adverse LS shock: (i) reduces credit and real GDP growth by 372 and 75 basis points in the impact period, respectively; (ii) explains 11.2% of real GDP growth variability on average over the following 20 quarters; and (iii) explained a 180-basis point fall in real GDP growth on average during 2009Q1-2010Q1 in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Additionally, the sensitivity analysis shows that the results are robust to alternative identification schemes with sign restrictions; and that an adverse LS shock has a greater impact on non-primary real GDP growth.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS ON CURRENT ACCOUNT SUSTAINABILITY IN LITHUANIA

Ekonomika ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 93 (2) ◽  
pp. 24-44
Author(s):  
Rokas Grajauskas
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Current Account Sustainability ◽  
Run Up ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Intertemporal Optimisation ◽  
The Current Account

Abstract. The paper deals with the dynamics of Lithuania’s current account in two distinct periods – the period in the run-up to the 2008–2009 financial crisis and the period since the crisis. The two main goals of the paper are: 1) to assess the sustainability of the level of Lithuania’s current account in the period 1995–2015 using an empirical model based on the intertemporal optimisation approach, and 2) to identify the factors behind the observed trends in Lithuania’s current account in the two periods in question. The research has been conducted using the methods of empirical (regression) analysis, theoretical explanations, and descriptive analysis. The paper finds that the current account in Lithuania has been sustainable since 1995, except for two brief periods – the 1999 Russian crisis and in 2009 when Lithuania’s economy contracted by more than 15% in real terms due to the global financial crisis. The empirical research has also revealed a shift in the level of the sustainable current account in the post-crisis period but shows an existing gap between the sustainable and the actual current account in Lithuania. Considering the characteristics of Lithuania’s economy, the paper concludes that the actual level of the current account in Lithuania is not optimal from the intertemporal point of view.Key words: intertemporal optimisation, current account, deleveraging, rebalancing, capital flight

On the formation of a New Paradigm of fiscal Policy

2013 ◽  
pp. 152-158 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Senchagov
Keyword(s):  
Public Finance ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
New Paradigm ◽  
Monetary Aggregate ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Due to Russia’s exit from the global financial crisis, the fiscal policy of withdrawing windfall spending has exhausted its potential. It is important to refocus public finance to the real economy and the expansion of domestic demand. For this goal there is sufficient, but not realized financial potential. The increase in fiscal spending in these areas is unlikely to lead to higher inflation, given its actual trend in the past decade relative to M2 monetary aggregate, but will directly affect the investment component of many underdeveloped sectors, as well as the volume of domestic production and consumer demand.

The IMF and the Politics of Austerity in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben Clift
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Full Employment ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Public Power ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Regulatory Interventions ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Imf

The IMF uses crisis-defining economic ideas, and crisis legacy-defining ideas, to construct interpretations of economic crises in ways which prioritize particular policy or institutional responses, and rule out or marginalize others. The post-crash IMF enjoyed scope to shift the boundaries of ‘legitimate’ policy, involving heightened appreciation of ‘non-linear’ threats from losses of confidence, prolonged weak demand, and financial system fragilities and contagion. The policy corollaries of this Fund rethink were that economic stability has to be actively pursued through a wider range of policy and regulatory interventions by governments, central banks, the IMF, and other forms of authority and public power. In the context of the Great Recession, the Fund no longer considered it safe to assume an inherent tendency on the part of unfettered market forces in finance and the real economy to deliver the stability and full employment at the heart of its mandate.

scholarly journals Income Distribution in Turkey during the Global Financial Crisis

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 91
Author(s):  
Sinem Sefil-Tansever
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Income Source ◽  
Labor Earnings ◽  
Income Sources ◽  
Gini Decomposition ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Earning Inequality

The aim of this study is to examine mechanism responsible for the behavior of the income and earning inequality in Turkey during the global financial crisis based on data from the 2006 to 2014 Income and Living Conditions Survey. Gini decomposition by income source is employed in order to provide an analysis of the contribution of the various income sources to the evolution of income inequality and to assess the impact of a marginal percentage change in the income from a particular source on income inequality. For examining the contributions of specific variables (education, position in occupation, economic sector) to the interpretation of labor earnings inequality in terms of their gross and marginal contribution, we use static decomposition of Theil T index.

scholarly journals Russia and the CIS in 2008: Axis of Authoritarianism??

Asian Survey ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 135-145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles E. Ziegler
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Great Power ◽  
The Caucasus ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Presidential Succession ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

Russia's seamless presidential succession produced no major changes in domestic politics or foreign policy. Ties with Asia remained strong, though several key relationships——with China, Japan, and the Central Asian states——frayed under the impact of Russia's military action in Georgia. Impressive economic performance in the first half of the year boosted Russian confidence as a great power, but its vulnerability to the global financial crisis together with the heavy-handed operation in the Caucasus undermined Moscow's standing with both Asia and Europe by the end of the year.

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