scholarly journals FORECASTING ONE-DECADE AHEAD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE HUMDITY FOR WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN LOWER NIGER

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Oluwatobi Aiyelokun ◽  
Abdulrahamon Olodo
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Water Resources Management ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
Weather Parameters ◽  
Water Resources Projects ◽  
Best Fit

Water availability is highly influenced by variability of weather parameters. Minimum temperature and relative humidity are important parameters that have been sidelined in many water resources management projects. In this study, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were identified and diagnosed in order to forecast mini-mum temperature and relative humidity of the study area. The findings of the study show that minimum temperature was high during dry season, when relative humidity was low. Furthermore, the multiplicative seasonal models best fit mini-mum temperature and relative humidity represented as ARIMA (5, 1, 0)(2, 0, 0)12 and ARIMA (1, 0, 0)(2, 0, 0)12 respec-tively. While, a ten-year forecast derived from the models would be useful for effective planning and acquisition of water resources projects in the study area.

scholarly journals Time series analysis of reference crop evapotranspiration for Bokaro District, Jharkhand, India

2016 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ratnesh Gautam ◽  
Anand K. Sinha
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resources Management ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Crop Evapotranspiration ◽  
Reference Crop Evapotranspiration ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
Reference Crop

AbstractEvapotranspiration is the one of the major role playing element in water cycle. More accurate measurement and forecasting of Evapotranspiration would enable more efficient water resources management. This study, is therefore, particularly focused on evapotranspiration modelling and forecasting, since forecasting would provide better information for optimal water resources management. There are numerous techniques of evapotranspiration forecasting that include autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA), autoregressive moving average (ARMA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Thomas Feiring, etc. Out of these models ARIMA model has been found to be more suitable for analysis and forecasting of hydrological events. Therefore, in this study ARIMA models have been used for forecasting of mean monthly reference crop evapotranspiration by stochastic analysis. The data series of 102 years i.e. 1224 months of Bokaro District were used for analysis and forecasting. Different order of ARIMA model was selected on the basis of autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation (PACF) of data series. Maximum likelihood method was used for determining the parameters of the models. To see the statistical parameter of model, best fitted model is ARIMA (0, 1, 4) (0, 1, 1)12.

scholarly journals Long-Term Prediction of Emergency Department Revenue and Visitor Volume Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

2011 ◽  
Vol 2011 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chieh-Fan Chen ◽  
Wen-Hsien Ho ◽  
Huei-Yin Chou ◽  
Shu-Mei Yang ◽  
I-Te Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Independent Variable

This study analyzed meteorological, clinical and economic factors in terms of their effects on monthly ED revenue and visitor volume. Monthly data from January 1, 2005 to September 30, 2009 were analyzed. Spearman correlation and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify the correlation between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to quantify the relationship between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. The accuracies were evaluated by comparing model forecasts to actual values with mean absolute percentage of error. Sensitivity of prediction errors to model training time was also evaluated. The ARIMA models indicated that mean maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, non-trauma, and trauma visits may correlate positively with ED revenue, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with ED revenue. Moreover, mean minimum temperature and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature, relative humidity and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with non-trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature and relative humidity may correlate positively with pediatric visitor volume, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with pediatric visitor volume. The model also performed well in forecasting revenue and visitor volume.

ECOLOGY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN LOCAL BUSINESS:SIMULATION OF LOW IMPACT DEVELOPMENT IN SURAKARTA REGENCY

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-38
Author(s):  
Bhimo Rizky Samudro ◽  
Yogi Pasca Pratama
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resources Management ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Low Impact Development ◽  
Development Model ◽  
Business Activity ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Specific Culture ◽  
Central Java Province

This paper will describe the function of water resources to support business activities in Surakarta regency, Central Java province. Surakarta is a business city in Central Java province with small business enterprises and specific culture. This city has a famous river with the name is Bengawan Solo. Bengawan Solo is a River Flow Regional (RFR) to support business activities in Surakarta regency. Concious with the function, societies and local government in Surakarta must to manage the sustainability of River Flow Regional (RFR) Bengawan Solo. It is important to manage the sustainability of business activity in Surakarta regency.   According to the condition in Surakarta regency, this paper will explain how the simulation of Low Impact Development Model in Surakarta regency. Low Impact Development is a model that can manage and evaluate sustainability of water resources in River Flow Regional (RFR). Low Impact Development can analys goals, structures, and process water resources management. The system can also evaluate results and impacts of water resources management. From this study, we hope that Low Impact Development can manage water resources in River Flow Regional (RFR) Bengawan Solo.  

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