scholarly journals Species distribution modelling of the genus Equisetum subgenus Equisetum for the territory of Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 333-338
Author(s):  
D. S. Feoktistov ◽  
E. Zh. Baiakhmetov
Keyword(s):  
Global Climate ◽  
Test Sample ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Entropy Method ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Annual Range ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Systematic Group ◽  
Temperature Seasonality

Horsetails are a complex taxonomic and systematic group. Therefore, the study of the geographical distribution of these species is necessary for a better understanding of the phylogeny of this family. We concluded an analysis of the distribution of 5 species of horsetail of the subgenus Equisetum (Equisetum, Equisetaceae): E. arvense L., E. fluviatile L., E. palustre L., E. pratense Ehrh., E. sylvaticum L. using the maximum entropy method implemented in the MaxEnt program. Modeling was carried out using climate variables from the WorldClim global climate base. Simulation results show good simulation quality. In 3 out of 5 species, the AUC of the test sample was in the range of 0.9–1, and in 2 species — 0.8–0.9. In general, for most species, a plausible picture of their intended distribution has developed. The obtained models suggest that the territory of Russia is favorable enough for the growth of horsetails. Analysis of the contribution of 14 bioclimatic variables to the distribution of the studied species revealed that the most important variables are: annual mean temperature, isotermality, temperature seasonality, max temperature of warmest month, temperature annual range, mean temperature of warmest quarter, mean temperature of driest quarter, mean temperature of coldest quarter, annual precipitation, precipitation of wettest month, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of driest quarter, precipitation of warmest quarter, and precipitation of coldest quarter.

scholarly journals Contrasting Evolution Patterns of Endorheic and Exorheic Lakes on the Central Tibetan Plateau and Climate Cause Analysis during 1988–2017

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 1962
Author(s):  
Zhilong Zhao ◽  
Yue Zhang ◽  
Zengzeng Hu ◽  
Xuanhua Nie
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Lake Area ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Mean Temperature

The alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are indicators of climate change. The assessment of lake dynamics on the TP is an important component of global climate change research. With a focus on lakes in the 33° N zone of the central TP, this study investigates the temporal evolution patterns of the lake areas of different types of lakes, i.e., non-glacier-fed endorheic lakes and non-glacier-fed exorheic lakes, during 1988–2017, and examines their relationship with changes in climatic factors. From 1988 to 2017, two endorheic lakes (Lake Yagenco and Lake Zhamcomaqiong) in the study area expanded significantly, i.e., by more than 50%. Over the same period, two exorheic lakes within the study area also exhibited spatio-temporal variability: Lake Gaeencuonama increased by 5.48%, and the change in Lake Zhamuco was not significant. The 2000s was a period of rapid expansion of both the closed lakes (endorheic lakes) and open lakes (exorheic lakes) in the study area. However, the endorheic lakes maintained the increase in lake area after the period of rapid expansion, while the exorheic lakes decreased after significant expansion. During 1988–2017, the annual mean temperature significantly increased at a rate of 0.04 °C/a, while the annual precipitation slightly increased at a rate of 2.23 mm/a. Furthermore, the annual precipitation significantly increased at a rate of 14.28 mm/a during 1995–2008. The results of this study demonstrate that the change in precipitation was responsible for the observed changes in the lake areas of the two exorheic lakes within the study area, while the changes in the lake areas of the two endorheic lakes were more sensitive to the annual mean temperature between 1988 and 2017. Given the importance of lakes to the TP, these are not trivial issues, and we now need accelerated research based on long-term and continuous remote sensing data.

scholarly journals Analysis of Air Mean Temperature Anomalies by Using Horizontal Visibility Graphs

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 207
Author(s):  
Javier Gómez-Gómez ◽  
Rafael Carmona-Cabezas ◽  
Elena Sánchez-López ◽  
Eduardo Gutiérrez de Ravé ◽  
Francisco José Jiménez-Hornero
Keyword(s):  
Complex Networks ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Spatial Relation ◽  
Clustering Coefficient ◽  
Horizontal Visibility ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Intrinsic Nature ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Mean Temperature

The last decades have been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface. An increasing interest in climate variability is appearing, and many research works have investigated the main effects on different climate variables. Some of them apply complex networks approaches to explore the spatial relation between distinct grid points or stations. In this work, the authors investigate whether topological properties change over several years. To this aim, we explore the application of the horizontal visibility graph (HVG) approach which maps a time series into a complex network. Data used in this study include a 60-year period of daily mean temperature anomalies in several stations over the Iberian Peninsula (Spain). Average degree, degree distribution exponent, and global clustering coefficient were analyzed. Interestingly, results show that they agree on a lack of significant trends, unlike annual mean values of anomalies, which present a characteristic upward trend. The main conclusions obtained are that complex networks structures and nonlinear features, such as weak correlations, appear not to be affected by rising temperatures derived from global climate conditions. Furthermore, different locations present a similar behavior and the intrinsic nature of these signals seems to be well described by network parameters.

scholarly journals A Bioclimate-Based Maximum Entropy Model for Comperiella calauanica Barrion, Almarinez and Amalin (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) in the Philippines

Insects ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 26
Author(s):  
Billy Joel M. Almarinez ◽  
Mary Jane A. Fadri ◽  
Richard Lasina ◽  
Mary Angelique A. Tavera ◽  
Thaddeus M. Carvajal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Entropy ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Biological Control Agent ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Field Surveys ◽  
Probability Of Occurrence ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables

Comperiella calauanica is a host-specific endoparasitoid and effective biological control agent of the diaspidid Aspidiotus rigidus, whose outbreak from 2010 to 2015 severely threatened the coconut industry in the Philippines. Using the maximum entropy (Maxent) algorithm, we developed a species distribution model (SDM) for C. calauanica based on 19 bioclimatic variables, using occurrence data obtained mostly from field surveys conducted in A. rigidus-infested areas in Luzon Island from 2014 to 2016. The calculated the area under the ROC curve (AUC) values for the model were very high (0.966, standard deviation = 0.005), indicating the model’s high predictive power. Precipitation seasonality was found to have the highest relative contribution to model development. Response curves produced by Maxent suggested the positive influence of mean temperature of the driest quarter, and negative influence of precipitation of the driest and coldest quarters on habitat suitability. Given that C. calauanica has been found to always occur with A. rigidus in Luzon Island due to high host-specificity, the SDM for the parasitoid may also be considered and used as a predictive model for its host. This was confirmed through field surveys conducted between late 2016 and early 2018, which found and confirmed the occurrence of A. rigidus in three areas predicted by the SDM to have moderate to high habitat suitability or probability of occurrence of C. calauanica: Zamboanga City in Mindanao; Isabela City in Basilan Island; and Tablas Island in Romblon. This validation in the field demonstrated the utility of the bioclimate-based SDM for C. calauanica in predicting habitat suitability or probability of occurrence of A. rigidus in the Philippines.

scholarly journals Predicted Future Benefits for an Endemic Rodent in the Irano-Turanian Region

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Suzanna Meeussen ◽  
Anouschka Hof
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Ranges ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is expected to have an impact on the geographical distribution ranges of species. Endemic species and those with a restricted geographic range may be especially vulnerable. The Persian jird (Meriones persicus) is an endemic rodent inhabiting the mountainous areas of the Irano-Turanian region, where future desertification may form a threat to the species. In this study, the species distribution modelling algorithm MaxEnt was used to assess the impact of future climate change on the geographic distribution range of the Persian jird. Predictions were made under two Representative Concentration Pathways and five different climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. It was found that both bioclimatic variables and land use variables were important in determining potential suitability of the region for the species to occur. In most cases, the future predictions showed an expansion of the geographic range of the Persian jird which indicates that the species is not under immediate threat. There are however uncertainties with regards to its current range. Predictions may therefore be an over or underestimation of the total suitable area. Further research is thus needed to confirm the current geographic range of the Persian jird to be able to improve assessments of the impact of future climate change.

scholarly journals Development of the first georeferenced map of Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) spp. in Mexico from 1970 to date and prediction of its spatial distribution

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yazmin Alcala-Canto ◽  
Juan Antonio Figueroa-Castillo ◽  
Froylán Ibarra-Velarde ◽  
Yolanda Vera-Montenegro ◽  
María Eugenia Cervantes-Valencia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Integrated Control ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Entropy Method ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Epidemiological Risk

The tick genus Ripicephalus (Boophilus), particularly R. microplus, is one of the most important ectoparasites that affects livestock health and considered an epidemiological risk because it causes significant economic losses due, mainly, to restrictions in the export of infested animals to several countries. Its spatial distribution has been tied to environmental factors, mainly warm temperatures and high relative humidity. In this work, we integrated a dataset consisting of 5843 records of Rhipicephalus spp., in Mexico covering close to 50 years to know which environmental variables mostly influence this ticks’ distribution. Occurrences were georeferenced using the software DIVA-GIS and the potential current distribution was modelled using the maximum entropy method (Maxent). The algorithm generated a map of high predictive capability (Area under the curve = 0.942), providing the various contribution and permutation importance of the tested variables. Precipitation seasonality, particularly in March, and isothermality were found to be the most significant climate variables in determining the probability of spatial distribution of Rhipicephalus spp. in Mexico (15.7%, 36.0% and 11.1%, respectively). Our findings demonstrate that Rhipicephalus has colonized Mexico widely, including areas characterized by different types of climate. We conclude that the Maxent distribution model using Rhipicephalus records and a set of environmental variables can predict the extent of the tick range in this country, information that should support the development of integrated control strategies.

scholarly journals Grassland fire ecology has roots in the late Miocene

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (48) ◽  
pp. 12130-12135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Allison T. Karp ◽  
Anna K. Behrensmeyer ◽  
Katherine H. Freeman
Keyword(s):  
Late Miocene ◽  
Fire Ecology ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Strong Association ◽  
Feedback System ◽  
Terrestrial Vegetation ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Seasonal Extremes

That fire facilitated the late Miocene C4grassland expansion is widely suspected but poorly documented. Fire potentially tied global climate to this profound biosphere transition by serving as a regional-to-local driver of vegetation change. In modern environments, seasonal extremes in moisture amplify the occurrence of fire, disturbing forest ecosystems to create niche space for flammable grasses, which in turn provide fuel for frequent fires. On the Indian subcontinent, C4expansion was accompanied by increased seasonal extremes in rainfall (evidenced by δ18Ocarbonate), which set the stage for fuel accumulation and fire-linked clearance during wet-to-dry seasonal transitions. Here, we test the role of fire directly by examining the abundance and distribution patterns of fire-derived polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and terrestrial vegetation signatures inn-alkane carbon isotopes from paleosol samples of the Siwalik Group (Pakistan). Two million years before the C4grassland transition, fire-derived PAH concentrations increased as conifer vegetation declined, as indicated by a decrease in retene. This early increase in molecular fire signatures suggests a transition to more fire-prone vegetation such as a C3grassland and/or dry deciduous woodland. Between 8.0 and 6.0 million years ago, fire, precipitation seasonality, and C4-grass dominance increased simultaneously (within resolution) as marked by sharp increases in fire-derived PAHs, δ18Ocarbonate, and13C enrichment inn-alkanes diagnostic of C4grasses. The strong association of evidence for fire occurrence, vegetation change, and landscape opening indicates that a dynamic fire–grassland feedback system was both a necessary precondition and a driver for grassland ecology during the first emergence of C4grasslands.

scholarly journals Global distribution of soapberries (Sapindus L.) habitats under current and future climate scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiming Liu ◽  
Lianchun Wang ◽  
Caowen Sun ◽  
Benye Xi ◽  
Doudou Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
Large Scale Cultivation

AbstractSapindus (Sapindus L.) is a widely distributed economically important tree genus that provides biodiesel, biomedical and biochemical products. However, with climate change, deforestation, and economic development, the diversity of Sapindus germplasms may face the risk of destruction. Therefore, utilising historical environmental data and future climate projections from the BCC-CSM2-MR global climate database, we simulated the current and future global distributions of suitable habitats for Sapindus using a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. The estimated ecological thresholds for critical environmental factors were: a minimum temperature of 0–20 °C in the coldest month, soil moisture levels of 40–140 mm, a mean temperature of 2–25 °C in the driest quarter, a mean temperature of 19–28 °C in the wettest quarter, and a soil pH of 5.6–7.6. The total suitable habitat area was 6059.97 × 104 km2, which was unevenly distributed across six continents. As greenhouse gas emissions increased over time, the area of suitable habitats contracted in lower latitudes and expanded in higher latitudes. Consequently, surveys and conservation should be prioritised in southern hemisphere areas which are in danger of becoming unsuitable. In contrast, other areas in northern and central America, China, and India can be used for conservation and large-scale cultivation in the future.

scholarly journals Rapid range expansion predicted for the Common Grackle (Quiscalus quiscula) in the near future under climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Capainolo ◽  
Utku Perktaş ◽  
Mark D. E. Fellowes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Biogeographic Patterns ◽  
Range Distribution ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Common ◽  
Quiscalus Quiscula

Abstract Background Climate change due to anthropogenic global warming is the most important factor that will affect future range distribution of species and will shape future biogeographic patterns. While much effort has been expended in understanding how climate change will affect rare and declining species we have less of an understanding of the likely consequences for some abundant species. The Common Grackle (Quiscalus quiscula; Linnaeus 1758), though declining in portions of its range, is a widespread blackbird (Icteridae) species in North America east of the Rocky Mountains. This study examined how climate change might affect the future range distribution of Common Grackles. Methods We used the R package Wallace and six general climate models (ACCESS1-0, BCC-CSM1-1, CESM1-CAM5-1-FV2, CNRM-CM5, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR) available for the future (2070) to identify climatically suitable areas, with an ecological niche modelling approach that includes the use of environmental conditions. Results Future projections suggested a significant expansion from the current range into northern parts of North America and Alaska, even under more optimistic climate change scenarios. Additionally, there is evidence of possible future colonization of islands in the Caribbean as well as coastal regions in eastern Central America. The most important bioclimatic variables for model predictions were Annual Mean Temperature, Temperature Seasonality, Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter and Annual Precipitation. Conclusions The results suggest that the Common Grackle could continue to expand its range in North America over the next 50 years. This research is important in helping us understand how climate change will affect future range patterns of widespread, common bird species.

Predicting the potential distribution ofVexillata(Nematoda: Ornithostrongylidae) and its hosts (Mammalia: Rodentia) within America

2012 ◽  
Vol 87 (4) ◽  
pp. 400-408 ◽  
Author(s):  
E.A. Martínez-Salazar ◽  
T. Escalante ◽  
M. Linaje ◽  
J. Falcón-Ordaz
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Factor ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Host Species ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Distributional Patterns ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
Temperature Seasonality ◽  
Host Parasite

AbstractSpecies distribution modelling has been a powerful tool to explore the potential distribution of parasites in wildlife, being the basis of studies on biogeography.Vexillataspp. are intestinal nematodes found in several species of mammalian hosts, such as rodents (Geomyoidea) and hares (Leporidae) in the Nearctic and northern Neotropical regions. In the present study, we modelled the potential distribution ofVexillataspp. and their hosts, using exclusively species from the Geomyidae and Heteromyidae families, in order to identify their distributional patterns. Bioclimatic and topographic variables were used to identify and predict suitable habitats forVexillataand its hosts. Using these models, we identified that temperature seasonality is a significant environmental factor that influences the distribution of the parasite genus and its host. In particular, the geographical distribution is estimated to be larger than that predicted for its hosts. This suggests that the nematode has the potential to extend its geographical range and also its spectrum of host species. Increasing sample size and geographical coverage will contribute to recommendations for conservation of this host–parasite system.

Continental temperature seasonality from Eocene Warmhouse to Oligocene Coolhouse — A model-data comparison

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agathe Toumoulin ◽  
Yannick Donnadieu ◽  
Delphine Tardif ◽  
Jean-Baptiste Ladant ◽  
Alexis Licht ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Middle Eocene ◽  
Late Eocene ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Annual Range ◽  
Temperature Seasonality

<p>At the junction of warmhouse and coolhouse climate phases, the Eocene Oligocene Transition (EOT) is a key moment in the history of the Cenozoic climate. Yet, while it is accompanied by severe extinctions and biodiversity turnovers, terrestrial climate evolution remains poorly resolved. On lands, some fossil and geochemistry records suggest a particularly marked cooling in winter, which would have led to the development of more pronounced seasons (higher Mean Annual Range of Temperatures, MATR) in certain regions of the Northern Hemisphere. This type of climate change should have had consequences on biodiversity and an implication in some of the fauna and flora renewals described at the EOT. However, this season strengthening has been studied only superficially by model studies, and questions remain about the geographical extent of this phenomenon and the associated climatic processes. Although other components of the climate system vary seasonally (e.g., precipitation, wind), we therefore focus on the seasonality of temperatures only.</p><p>In order to better understand and describe temperature seasonality change patterns from the middle Eocene to the early Oligocene, we use the Earth System Model IPSL-CM5A2 and a set of simulations reconstructing the EOT through three major climate forcings: pCO2 decrease (1120/840 to 560 ppm), the Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) formation, and the associated sea-level decrease (-70 m). </p><p>Our results suggest that seasonality changes across the EOT rely on the combined effects of the different tested mechanisms which result in zonal to regional climate responses. Sea-level changes associated with the earliest stage of the AIS formation may have also contributed to middle to late Eocene MATR reinforcement. We reconstruct strong and heterogeneous patterns of seasonality changes across the EOT. Broad continental areas of increased MATR reflect a strengthening of seasonality (from 4°C to > 10°C increase of the MATR) in agreement with MATR and Coldest Month Mean Temperatures (CMMT) changes indicated by a review of existing proxies. pCO2 decrease induces a zonal pattern with alternating increasing and decreasing seasonality bands. In the northern high-latitudes, it results in sea-ice and surface albedo feedback, driving a strong increase in seasonality (up to 8°C MATR increase). Conversely, the onset of the AIS is responsible for a more constant surface albedo, which leads to a strong decrease in seasonality in the southern mid- to high-latitudes (> 40°S). Finally, continental areas emerged due to the sea level lowering cause the largest increase in seasonality and explain most of the global heterogeneity in MATR changes patterns. The seasonality change patterns we reconstruct are consistent with the variability of the EOT biotic crisis intensity across the Northern Hemisphere.</p>

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