PRICE DISCOVERY AND MARKET EFFICIENCY IN MALAYSIA PROPERTY MARKET

Purpose Market efficiency leads to transparent and fair price discovery of commodity markets, thus enhancing the value chain for competitive benefit. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the market efficiency of Indian agricultural commodities at spot, futures and mandi markets apart from exploring price risk management in these markets. Design/methodology/approach This study uses Johansen co-integration, vector error correction model and granger causality for analyzing market efficiency of the nine most liquid agricultural commodities across three markets, namely, spot, futures and mandi. All these nine commodities are traded on National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange. Findings The statistical results indicate price discovery exists in the mandi market and spot market leading to futures prices. Mandi price returns are seen to negatively influence futures returns in the case of cotton seed, guar seed and spot returns in the case of jeera, coriander and chana. For castor seed, the three markets are seen to have no long run relationship. The results of Granger causality reveal short run relationship between all the three markets in the case of soybean seed and coriander. In these commodities, prices in all three markets are capable of predicting the prices in the other markets. For the case of cottonseed, Rape Mustard seed, jeera, guar seed, the results indicate unidirectional causality between the mandi markets and the other two markets. Research limitations/implications These results shall facilitate policymakers to explore intervention through integrated agri-platform (IAP) in price discovery and market efficiency. Practical implications The results of this study are useful in understanding the price discovery of mandi markets and its role in the spot and futures market. Agricultural commodities price discovery depends upon the integration of all these three markets. Introduction of IAP as described in the paper shall facilitate price risk management apart from improving the efficiency of price discovery. Originality/value To the best of the knowledge, this is the first study considering mandi, spot and futures prices in the price discovery process in India. In addition, this study found the role of mandi markets in serving the economic function of price discovery and price risk management. Hence, suggests for policy intervention for Indian agricultural commodities to manage price risk.

Download Full-text

Local investors, price discovery, and market efficiency

Journal of Financial Economics ◽

10.1016/j.jfineco.2011.12.003 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 104 (1) ◽

pp. 145-161 ◽

Cited By ~ 31

Author(s):

Sophie Shive

Keyword(s):

Market Efficiency ◽

Price Discovery

Download Full-text

Property Market Efficiency: An Institutional Economics Perspective

Urban Studies ◽

10.1080/0042098992485 ◽

1999 ◽

Vol 36 (13) ◽

pp. 2401-2414 ◽

Cited By ~ 63

Author(s):

Geoffrey Keogh ◽

Eamonn D'Arcy

Keyword(s):

Market Efficiency ◽

Institutional Economics ◽

Property Market

Download Full-text

Price discovery and market efficiency of cardamom in India

Vilakshan - XIMB Journal of Management ◽

10.1108/xjm-11-2020-0215 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

A.N. Vijayakumar

Keyword(s):

Risk Management ◽

Market Efficiency ◽

Price Discovery ◽

Market Mechanism ◽

Price Risk ◽

Content Type ◽

Futures Contract ◽

Forward Market ◽

Day Of The Week ◽

Price Risk Management

Purpose Transparent and fair price discovery is essential to commodity market participants in the trade value chain for competitive benefit. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the price discovery of Indian cardamom at e-auction, spot and futures markets in addition to the existence of the day of the week effect at e-auction apart from exploring a novel price risk management framework. Design/methodology/approach This study used Johansen co-integration, vector error correction model, Granger causality and regression with dummy variables to understand a day of the week effect in high-value agri-commodity of cardamom e-auction prices. These price data were based on authenticated sources of Spices Board India and Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. Findings The statistical results indicate price discovery exists in the e-auction market and it leads to spot and futures prices. cardamom e-auction prices are negatively related to cardamom futures and positively related to spot prices. It also finds the non-existence of the day of the week effect in the high-value cardamom e-auction system in India. The study revealed that a cardamom e-auction is more active in price discovery than a cardamom futures contract. Research limitations/implications These results shall facilitate policymakers to explore intervention of online forward market mechanism at the national level to ensure price discovery and market efficiency. However, the study did not explore reasons for the non-equilibrium of a cardamom futures contract with spot and e-auction market. Practical implications The results of this study are useful in understanding the price discovery of cardamom e-auction and its role in the spot and futures market. Cardamom price discovery depends upon the e-auction system; any change of auction policy shall be binding on Indian cardamom prices. The introduction of an online forward market mechanism as described in the paper shall facilitate price risk management apart from improving the efficiency of price discovery. Originality/value This is the first study considering cardamom e-auction, spot and futures prices in the price discovery process in India. Statistical results of a day of the week effect clearly show no significant volatility of cardamom prices during the week. Besides, this study did not find the role of cardamom futures contracts intended to serve the economic function of price discovery and price risk management. Hence, suggests policy intervention for implementing an online Forward Market mechanism for Indian cardamom to ensure market efficiency and manage price risk.

Download Full-text