scholarly journals Adversarial Risk Analysis for Enhancing Combat Simulation Models

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 82-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juho Roponen ◽  
Ahti Salo
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
The Past ◽  
Combat Simulation ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Game Theoretic ◽  
Statistical Risk ◽  
Military Combat

Abstract Adversarial Risk Analysis (ARA) builds on statistical risk analysis and game theory to analyze decision situations involving two or more intelligent opponents who make decisions under uncertainty. During the past few years, the ARA approach-which is based on the explicit modelling of the decision making processes of a rational opponent-has been applied extensively in areas such as counterterrorism and corporate competition. In the context of military combat modelling, however, ARA has not been used systematically, even if there have been attempts to predict the opponent’s decisions based on wargaming, application of game theoretic equilibria, and the use of expert judgements. Against this backdrop, we argue that combining ARA with military combat modelling holds promise for enhancing the capabilities of combat modelling tools. We identify ways of combining ARA with combat modelling and give an illustrative example of how ARA can provide insights into a problem where the defender needs to estimate the utility gained from hiding its troop movements from the attacker. Even if the ARA approach can be challenging to apply, it can be instructive in that relevant assumptions about the resources, expectations and goals that guide the adversary’s decisions must be explicated.

scholarly journals Therapeutic Abortion and Psychiatric Disturbance in Canadian Women

1976 ◽  
Vol 21 (7) ◽  
pp. 453-460 ◽  
Author(s):  
Esther R. Greenglass
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Suicide Attempts ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Psychiatric History ◽  
Legal Abortion ◽  
Therapeutic Abortion ◽  
Psychiatric Disturbance ◽  
The Past ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Psychiatric Problems

Summary The majority of one hundred and eighty-eight women interviewed after having legal, therapeutic abortions did not experience psychiatric disturbance. While women with a psychiatric history were more likely than their more mentally healthy counterparts to experience some psychiatric disturbance afterwards, the majority of those with psychiatric problems in the past appeared to be coping reasonably well afterwards. It was pointed out that factors and circumstances other than the abortion itself, but occurring around the same time, may constitute reasons for the subsequent appearance of psychiatric disturbance, such as suicide attempts. Finally, the grounds for legal abortion in Canada were questioned — particularly the artificial practice of compartmentalizing and labeling reasons for abortion as psychiatric and non-psychiatric. While such practices may facilitate the decision-making processes involved in reviewing applications for abortion, they do not take account of the full range of human and social need.

Development of Game Theoretic Protocols for Multilevel Design

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayan Sinha ◽  
Farrokh Mistree ◽  
Janet K. Allen
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Geometric Modeling ◽  
Underwater Vehicle ◽  
Design Problems ◽  
Single Level ◽  
Engineering Teams ◽  
Game Theoretic ◽  
Multiple Levels ◽  
The Relationship

The effectiveness of the use of game theory in addressing multi-objective design problems has been illustrated. For the most part, researchers have focused on design problems at single level. In this paper, we illustrate the efficacy of using game theoretic protocols to model the relationship between multidisciplinary engineering teams and facilitate decision making at multiple levels. We will illustrate the protocols in the context of an underwater vehicle with three levels that span material and geometric modeling associated with microstructure mediated design of the material and vehicle.

Marshmallows and Braking Systems

2021 ◽  
pp. 105-122
Author(s):  
Craig J. Bryan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Mental Illness ◽  
Suicide Attempt ◽  
Social Influence ◽  
Emotional Distress ◽  
Basic Concept ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
The Past ◽  
Internal States ◽  
Decision Making Processes

This chapter argues that suicide can be more usefully understood as a consequence of decision-making processes that are vulnerable to environmental and social influence rather than a consequence of internal states or traits such as mental illness. Mental illness and emotional distress more generally are better understood as one particular context within which the decision to make a suicide attempt or not often presents itself, but this does not mean that mental illness is the only context within which this choice is considered. This also does not mean that mental illness causes suicide. The basic concept involved in the marshmallow experiment—decision-making under different conditions—has received increased attention in the past decade among suicide researchers. Studies reveal that the decision-making process of someone who almost died as a result of a suicide attempt was no different from the decision-making process of someone who had never attempted suicide, was not currently suicidal, and did not have a mental illness. This finding lines up with the idea that there can be multiple pathways to suicide.

Territorial Changes to Municipalities and Inter-Municipal Cooperation: A Comparative Overview and Orientations for Slovenia

2014 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 731-748 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iztok Rakar ◽  
Bojan Tičar ◽  
Maja Klun
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
Democratic Legitimacy ◽  
Local Democracy ◽  
The Past ◽  
The People ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Public Decision

Local self-government has faced a number of challenges over the past decade. The financial crisis has revealed new dimensions of the eternal question of financing self-governing local communities, while distrust and a lack of interest in participation in local democracy among the people have led to considerations of different approaches to public decision-making concerning local issues. A comparative overview shows that the question of the “perfect size” of municipalities is currently very relevant and aimed at finding dimensions that would enable the municipality to ensure both local-level democracy and identity and economic efficiency in the delivery of public services. The most popular tool for achieving this goal is the merger of municipalities, although other approaches also exist, including various forms of inter-municipal cooperation. Some forms of inter-municipal cooperation have already taken firm hold in Slovenia, although the question of the potential impacts of alternative forms of inter-municipal cooperation on the democratic legitimacy of decision-making processes and the potential of these processes for the developmental breakthrough of Slovenian municipalities has yet to receive adequate attention.

Resisting Displacement amid Armed Conflict: Community-Level Conditions that Make People More Likely to Stay

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 68-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Krakowski
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Social Resources ◽  
Collective Decision ◽  
Collective Decision Making ◽  
Community Members ◽  
Dual Effect ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Game Theoretic

The paper examines conditions under which communities threatened by armed groups amid the Colombian civil war are most likely to resist displacement. Using a game-theoretic framework and quantitative data, the paper shows that the threatened communities which expect rescue from an armed actor are more likely to resist displacement than those communities which expect no help. Community cohesion has a dual effect on displacement. The amount of peer support among community members reduces their chances to resist displacement, but the extent to which community members are involved in collective decision-making processes makes them less likely to displace. These findings reveal that both displaced communities and those that resisted displacement possess crucial social resources for their post-conflict recovery and development, such as cohesion and strong bonds of solidarity. The paper stresses the importance of local-level organisation coordinating collective decision-making to guarantee the most efficient use of these resources.

scholarly journals Every Adolescent Deserves a Parent

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dale Margolin Cecka
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Foster Care ◽  
Child Welfare ◽  
Young Person ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Foster Child ◽  
Foster Care System ◽  
The Past ◽  
Child Welfare Professionals ◽  
Decision Making Processes

This article argues that all adolescents, indeed all human beings, deserve at least one parent�one person who takes the good with the bad because that person�s life is intertwined with the child�s. The child matters to the parent in a way that a friend, nephew, or foster child may not. Child welfare professionals must never lose sight of this principle when they recruit, train, and maintain parents for adolescents. The parent can be someone who is already in the young person�s life or someone who has been unable to parent in the past, but is now ready to secure that bond. True parents are attainable for teenagers in foster care as long as child welfare professionals remember what they are looking for and are steadfast and creative in their efforts to find and nurture these relationships. Section Two of this article details the issues that adolescents face when they age out 5 of the foster care system. Next, Section Three discusses the obstacles adolescents face in attaining familial permanency. Section Four examines the aspects of successful adoptions, including the recruitment and decision making processes, in an effort to apply those principals to developing and maintaining adolescent permanency. Finally, Section Five concludes with the keys to successful adolescent permanency.

scholarly journals EFFECT OF RISK ANALYSIS ON PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS IN KUWAIT

2021 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rashid Aldaiyat
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Descriptive Study ◽  
Significant Positive Effect ◽  
Performance Indices ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
High Range

Since construction projects are usually associated with high range of risks, risk analysis is an essential part within the decision-making processes in this industry. This study aims at finding the effect of appropriate risk analysis on enhancing the performance of the construction projects in Kuwait. Through this correlational descriptive study, a questionnaire was used to collect the main data where it was distributed on a sample of (150) engineers working in the construction projects in Kuwait. The results showed that risks analysis aspects are highly implemented in Kuwait and that the performance indices for the construction projects are high. Moreover, it was found that there is a statistically significant positive effect of risk analysis on the performance of the construction projects in Kuwait. Finally, the results showed that there were statistically significant differences in the effect of risk analysis on the performance of the construction projects attributed to the project type in favor of the private projects.            

scholarly journals Decision-Making Rationales among Quebec VET Student Aged 25 and Older

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 226-248
Author(s):  
Louis Cournoyer ◽  
Frédéric Deschenaux
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Vocational Training ◽  
Life Experiences ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Return To Education ◽  
Career Decision Making ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
The Past ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Adjustment Strategies

Each year, a large number of students aged 25 years and over take part in vocational and education training (VET) programs in the Province of Quebec, Canada. The life experiences of many of these adults are marked by complex psychosocial and professional events, which may have influenced their career decision-making processes. This paper aimed to identify key rationales guiding the decisions of adults aged 25 years and older to return to education based on a thematic analysis of 30 semi-structured interviews with students enrolled in a VET program. The analysis focused on two theoretical axes: one biographical and the other interactionist. The first involved personal life courses and professional projects undertaken by the student in the past. The second examined tensions and conflicts between context forces and adjustment strategies adopted by the student. The results revealed five decision-making rationales that characterized the vast majority of the students’ experiences: 1) get out of a socioprofessional and economic slump; 2) know yourself better, personally and socially; 3) value the concrete and the practical; 4) take advantage of supporting conditions; and 5) reconcile proximity and the known. The relevance and implications of these findings for professionals and decision makers in vocational training are discussed.

Questioning Media Responsibility during Terrorism

2016 ◽  
pp. 441-454
Author(s):  
Mahmoud Eid
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Severe Stress ◽  
Socially Responsible ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Media Performance ◽  
Media Responsibility ◽  
Choice Approach ◽  
Terrorist Events

The media's dual role during times of terrorism can be as useful as the most effective security and political counterterrorism measures and can be as harmful as exacerbating terrorist events to the worst humanitarian disasters. Media decision-making processes, therefore, are integral to achieving more desired outcomes. This chapter questions the effectiveness of media performance during times of terrorism through the examination of their decision-making processes in terms of rationality and responsibility. The numerous media decisions that are usually made under severe stress during times of terrorism require adherence to both ethical standards and rational thinking. Strategic and goal-directed decision-making that is based on rational choice approach and game theory can help enhance the quality of media decisions. Ethical and socially responsible media performance is fundamental for effective communication. Interweaved, responsible and rational media decision-making are integral to the effectiveness of media decision-making during times of terrorism towards achieving more desired outcomes.

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