scholarly journals The Importance of Modeling Temporal Dependence of Timing and Quantity in Direct Marketing

2009 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 482-493 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lichung Jen ◽  
Chien-Heng Chou ◽  
Greg M. Allenby
Keyword(s):  
Customer Value ◽  
Rank Order ◽  
Direct Marketing ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Temporal Dependence ◽  
Alternative Models ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Marketing Data ◽  
Differential Action ◽  
Over Time

The analysis of customer value in direct marketing typically combines customer timing and quantity data into a single statistic that is used to compute lifetime values, rank-order customers for differential action, and identify prospects for cross-selling. However, current models assume that purchase timing and quantity decisions are independently realized (i.e., uncorrelated) over time given individual-level parameters. In this article, the authors show that customer value calculations can be severely biased in these models when timing and quantity are dependently related. The authors propose alternative models that lead to substantial gains in profitability in two direct-marketing data sets. The results indicate that the commonly held assumption of independence leads to an overvaluation of customer value.

Personality change and environmental concerns

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher James Hopwood ◽  
Ted Schwaba ◽  
Wiebke Bleidorn
Keyword(s):  
Personality Traits ◽  
Personality Change ◽  
Environmental Concerns ◽  
Big Five Personality ◽  
German Population ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Sustainable Behavior ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Over Time

Personal concerns about climate change and the environment are a powerful motivator of sustainable behavior. People’s level of concern varies as a function of a variety of social and individual factors. Using data from 58,748 participants from a nationally representative German sample, we tested preregistered hypotheses about factors that impact concerns about the environment over time. We found that environmental concerns increased modestly from 2009-2017 in the German population. However, individuals in middle adulthood tended to be more concerned and showed more consistent increases in concern over time than younger or older people. Consistent with previous research, Big Five personality traits were correlated with environmental concerns. We present novel evidence that increases in concern were related to increases in the personality traits neuroticism and openness to experience. Indeed, changes in openness explained roughly 50% of the variance in changes in environmental concerns. These findings highlight the importance of understanding the individual level factors associated with changes in environmental concerns over time, towards the promotion of more sustainable behavior at the individual level.

scholarly journals Examining social determinants by locale to inform community linkages

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
J Davis
Keyword(s):  
Social Determinants ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Rank Order ◽  
Disabled Persons ◽  
Behavioral Risk ◽  
Exploratory Research ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Negative Impacts

Abstract Achieving a long-lasting impact on health outcomes requires focus not just on patient care, but also on community approaches aimed at improving population health through addressing gaps in Social Determinants of Health (SDOH). SDOH have been found to disproportionately affect those in low-income brackets and the disabled to varying degrees based on locale. The purpose of this exploratory research was to determine 1) which SDOH have the greatest negative impact on disabled and elderly populations within four targeted states (Iowa, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin) and 2) if there is a difference in negative SDOH impact between metro and non-metro locales. Individual-level data were obtained from disabled persons aged 65 years or older who responded to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's 2017 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) survey. Utilizing these data, frequency distributions were obtained using SPSS. Rank order variation in SDOH was observed among four Midwestern states and between metro vs. non-metro geographic regions. Frequency distributions assisted in identifying the greatest negative impacting SDOH on elderly disabled populations. An examination of the rank order tables allowed the investigator to accurately assess the rank of negative impacts. There were variabilities in responses to questions with moving two or more times within 12 months having the lowest negative impact. When regrouped based upon SDOH negative impacts, were you able to pay your bills was the most frequent SDOH across all states. Feeling unsafe or extremely unsafe in your neighborhood was the highest negatively impacted SDOH within states. Cited determinants in three categories were highest in Ohio. Ohio also had the highest proportion of negatively impacted SDOH across all states. No money for balanced meals was a close second SDOH across states. Key messages Social Determinants Impacting Elderly Disabled. Impact of Social Determinants by Geography.

scholarly journals Trends in Disability Among Adults 55-64 in the United States and England From 2002 to 2016

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 303-303
Author(s):  
HwaJung Choi ◽  
Robert Schoeni ◽  
Tsai-Chin Cho ◽  
Kenneth Langa
Keyword(s):  
Activities Of Daily Living ◽  
Daily Living ◽  
Income Group ◽  
The United States ◽  
Annual Change ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Income Groups ◽  
The Us ◽  
Disability Prevalence ◽  
Over Time

Abstract The paper’s goal is to assess whether and, if so, the extent to which prevalence in disability of adults near retirement ages in the US increased over time compared to their peers in England and examine income group differences in the relative trends. This study uses 2002-2016 Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) focusing on adults aged 55-64. Annual percent changes over the period of 2002-2016 for limitations in instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) and activities of daily living (ADL) are estimated for each survey (HRS and ELSA) using multivariable logistic regressions to adjust for individual-level characteristics While disability prevalence of adults ages 55-64 in England improved over the years of 2002-2016 (annual % change= -2.01 for IADL; - 2.53 for ADL), disability prevalence of US adults has not improved and in fact even worsened in terms of IADL (annual % change= +1.35). There are substantial variations in the IADL/ADL trends by income groups. In the US, the adverse trends in disability were more pronounced among the lowest income groups (annual % change in IADL=1.76 for bottom 20% vs. -2.08 for top 20%; annual % change in ADL=1.08 for bottom 20% vs. -2.08 for top 20%). In England, the disability status improved over time for all but the lowest income group. We will examine further to identify specific factors contributing to divergent/convergent trends in disability between the US and England.

scholarly journals From Substitutive to Supplementary: Institutional Interplay between Public and Occupational Sickness Benefits in Finland, 1947-2016

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-80
Author(s):  
Laura Järvi
Keyword(s):  
Welfare State ◽  
Institutional Development ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Sickness Benefit ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Public ◽  
Blue Collar Workers ◽  
Sickness Benefits ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Benefit System

In the context of the Finnish welfare state, this article examines the role of occupational welfare in the interplay between public and occupational sickness benefits from 1947 to 2016, to analyse how the two sickness benefits have interacted over time and the role occupational welfare has played in sickness provision. Previous research has noted that occupational benefits may support or compensate for the much-debated declining welfare state. Hence, it is important to acquire greater knowledge about the public-occupational interplay. The study uses in-depth individual-level analysis from a retrospective point of view, which has been rare in previous research, and examines the public-occupational interplay in the Finnish sickness benefit system from the first national collective agreements to 2016. Based on the reforms made to the public system, the article identifies and utilises six different phases of the Finnish sickness allowance system in the main analysis. The institutional development of sickness provision is investigated by analysing the compensation rate and benefit period, using metalworkers as a representative example of blue-collar workers. The results indicate that occupational benefits are strongly institutionalised in the Finnish sickness benefit system. The interplay between statutory and occupational sickness benefits has taken different forms over time, and occupational benefits have been re-negotiated as the statutory system has been reformed. The article provides valuable information on the historical development and relevance of occupational welfare, in terms of not only understanding its significance for individuals but also comprehending the logic of the interplay in the public-private mix of welfare provision.

Belief Movement, Uncertainty Reduction, and Rational Updating*

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ned Augenblick ◽  
Matthew Rabin
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Uncertainty Reduction ◽  
The State ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
New Information ◽  
The World ◽  
Core Concepts ◽  
Market Beliefs ◽  
Over Time

Abstract When a Bayesian learns new information and changes her beliefs, she must on average become concomitantly more certain about the state of the world. Consequently, it is rare for a Bayesian to frequently shift beliefs substantially while remaining relatively uncertain, or, conversely, become very confident with relatively little belief movement. We formalize this intuition by developing specific measures of movement and uncertainty reduction given a Bayesian’s changing beliefs over time, showing that these measures are equal in expectation and creating consequent statistical tests for Bayesianess. We then show connections between these two core concepts and four common psychological biases, suggesting that the test might be particularly good at detecting these biases. We provide support for this conclusion by simulating the performance of our test and other martingale tests. Finally, we apply our test to data sets of individual, algorithmic, and market beliefs.

Canada’s changing innovation landscape

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Razib Alam ◽  
Bonwoo Koo ◽  
Brian Paul Cozzarin
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Destination Country ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Patent Classification ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The University ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Our objective is to study Canada’s patenting activity over time in aggregate terms by destination country, by assignee and destination country, and by diversification by country of destination. We collect bibliographic patent data from the Canadian Intellectual Property Office and the United States Patent and Trademark Office. We identify 19,957 matched Canada–US patents, 34,032 Canada-only patents, and 43,656 US-only patents from 1980 to 2014. Telecommunications dominates in terms of International Patent Classification technologies for US-only and Canada–US patents. At the firm level, the greatest number of matched Canada–US patents were granted in the field of telecommunications, at the university level in pharmaceuticals, at the government level in control and instrumentation technology, and at the individual level in civil engineering. We use entropy to quantify technological diversification and find that diversification indices decline over time for Canada and the USA; however, all US indices decline at a faster rate.

Disparities Across Time: Exploring Absenteeism Patterns between Cohorts of Students with Disabilities

2020 ◽  
Vol 122 (11) ◽  
pp. 1-32
Author(s):  
Michael A. Gottfried ◽  
Vi-Nhuan Le ◽  
J. Jacob Kirksey
Keyword(s):  
Students With Disabilities ◽  
Social Needs ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Chronic Absenteeism ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Full Day Kindergarten ◽  
Effective Interventions ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Single Data ◽  
Over Time

Background It is of grave concern that kindergartners are missing more school than students in any other year of elementary school; therefore, documenting which students are absent and for how long is of upmost importance. Yet, doing so for students with disabilities (SWDs) has received little attention. This study addresses this gap by examining two cohorts of SWDs, separated by more than a decade, to document changes in attendance patterns. Research Questions First, for SWDs, has the number of school days missed or chronic absenteeism rates changed over time? Second, how are changes in the number of school days missed and chronic absenteeism rates related to changes in academic emphasis, presence of teacher aides, SWD-specific teacher training, and preschool participation? Subjects This study uses data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study (ECLS), a nationally representative data set of children in kindergarten. We rely on both ECLS data sets— the kindergarten classes of 1998–1999 and 2010–2011. Measures were identical in both data sets, making it feasible to compare children across the two cohorts. Given identical measures, we combined the data sets into a single data set with an indicator for being in the older cohort. Research Design This study examined two sets of outcomes: The first was number of days absent, and the second was likelihood of being chronically absent. These outcomes were regressed on a measure for being in the older cohort (our key measure for changes over time) and numerous control variables. The error term was clustered by classroom. Findings We found that SWDs are absent more often now than they were a decade earlier, and this growth in absenteeism was larger than what students without disabilities experienced. Absenteeism among SWDs was higher for those enrolled in full-day kindergarten, although having attended center-based care mitigates this disparity over time. Implications are discussed. Conclusions Our study calls for additional attention and supports to combat the increasing rates of absenteeism for SWDs over time. Understanding contextual shifts and trends in rates of absenteeism for SWDs in kindergarten is pertinent to crafting effective interventions and research geared toward supporting the academic and social needs of these students.

scholarly journals Automated tracking of S. pombe spindle elongation dynamics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Sofía M. Uzsoy ◽  
Parsa Zareiesfandabadi ◽  
Jamie Jennings ◽  
Alexander F. Kemper ◽  
Mary Williard Elting
Keyword(s):  
Principal Axis ◽  
Model Organism ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Mitotic Progression ◽  
Automated Tracking ◽  
Spindle Elongation ◽  
Microscopy Data ◽  
Spindle Structure ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Imagej Plugin

The mitotic spindle is a microtubule-based machine that pulls the two identical sets of chromosomes to opposite ends of the cell during cell division. The fission yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe is an important model organism for studying mitosis due to its simple, stereotyped spindle structure and well-established genetic toolset. S. pombe spindle length is a useful metric for mitotic progression, but manually tracking spindle ends in each frame to measure spindle length over time is laborious and can limit experimental throughput. We have developed an ImageJ plugin that can automatically track S. pombe spindle length over time and replace manual or semi-automated tracking of spindle elongation dynamics. Using an algorithm that detects the principal axis of the spindle and then finds its ends, we reliably track the length and angle of the spindle as the cell divides. The plugin integrates with existing ImageJ features, exports its data for further analysis outside of ImageJ, and does not require any programming by the user. Thus, the plugin provides an accessible tool for quantification of S. pombe spindle length that will allow automatic analysis of large microscopy data sets and facilitate screening for effects of cell biological perturbations on mitotic progression.

scholarly journals The truth revisited: Bayesian analysis of individual differences in the truth effect

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Schnuerch ◽  
Lena Nadarevic ◽  
Jeffrey Rouder
Keyword(s):  
Individual Differences ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Bayes Factor ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Cognitive Task ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Truth Effect ◽  
Negative Truth ◽  
Positive Truth

The repetition-induced truth effect refers to a phenomenon where people rate repeated statements as more likely true than novel statements. In this paper we document qualitative individual differences in the effect. While the overwhelming majority of participants display the usual positive truth effect, a minority are the opposite – they reliably discount the validity of repeated statements, what we refer to as negative truth effect. We examine 8 truth-effect data sets where individual-level data are curated. These sets are composed of 1,105 individuals performing 38,904 judgments. Through Bayes factor model comparison, we show that reliable negative truth effects occur in 5 of the 8 data sets. The negative truth effect is informative because it seems unreasonable that the mechanisms mediating the positive truth effect are the same that lead to a discounting of repeated statements' validity. Moreover, the presence of qualitative differences motivates a different type of analysis of individual differences based on ordinal (i.e., Which sign does the effect have?) rather than metric measures. To our knowledge, this paper reports the first such reliable qualitative differences in a cognitive task.

ANALYSIS OF POSTPARTUM LACTATIONAL AMENORRHOEA IN RELATION TO BREAST-FEEDING: SOME METHODOLOGICAL AND PRACTICAL ASPECTS

2001 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 529-549 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. LE STRAT ◽  
J. C. THALABARD
Keyword(s):  
Breast Feeding ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Inhibitory Effect ◽  
Precise Determination ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Reproductive Axis ◽  
Discrete Nature ◽  
Programming Skills ◽  
Over Time

A large multicentre epidemiological study was carried out by WHO between 1991 and 1995 to analyse the duration of lactational amenorrhoea in relation to breast-feeding. The main results of this analysis, which used classical statistical modelling, have been already published. However, some specific aspects of the postpartum fertility amenorrhoea and breast-feeding covariates, and more specifically the observed progressive exhaustion of the breast-feeding inhibitory effect on the reproductive axis, may justify a closer look at the validity of the statistical tools. Indeed, as has already been emphasized, analysis of large longitudinal data sets in reproduction often faces three difficulties: (i) the precise determination of the event of interest, (ii) the way to handle the time evolution of both the studied variables and their effect on the event of interest and (iii) the often discrete nature of the data and the associated problem of tied events. The first objective of the present work was to give additional insights into the estimation and quantification of the dynamics of the effect of breast-feeding over time, considering this covariate either as fixed or time-dependent. The second objective was to show how to perform the analyses using corresponding adapted procedures in widely available statistical packages, without the need for acquiring particular programming skills.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document