Reassessment of the OCA criteria in the Euro area: the case of Greece

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pantelis Sklias ◽  
George Maris
Keyword(s):  
2016 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 617-637
Author(s):  
Sofia Helena Gouveia

Business cycle synchronisation and the similarity in the sectoral structure of exports are key conditions for the successful implementation of common monetary policy, as shown by the theory of Optimum Currency Areas. This paper examines the degree of correlation between the aggregate euro area and 12 member states’ business cycles and the role of their exports specialisation dynamics vis-à-vis the euro area over the period 1981–2012, focusing in particular on Southern European countries. Overall, we find that since the inception of the European Monetary Union, the business cycles of euro area member states have been increasingly synchronised with the aggregate euro area cycle, with the exception of Greece. We also document that changes in the Greek, Portuguese, and Spanish export structures brought these countries closer to the euro area structure as a whole. Furthermore, we find a positive and significant relationship between the similarity of export structures and GDP cyclical correlations.


Subject The prospects for Greek departure from the euro-area. Significance Since the political crisis of 2012, when the term 'Grexit' -- Greek exit from the euro -- was coined, the risk of such an eventuality has increased. The Greek economy would suffer enormous damage, while the euro-area would incur significant political and economic blows, including a contraction estimated at 1.5% of euro-area GDP, at the very least -- greater than the current contribution of the Greek economy. For Greece, a 20% contraction and a 50% erosion of average per capita income in euro terms are forecast. The new currency would be unlikely to promote exports, because of the high cost of imported machinery and intermediate goods, and the tourism industry would also be exposed to high inputs. Impacts Grexit would profoundly alter the economic and political profile of Greece, isolating it and shutting out external investment. Grexit would highlight persistent structural problems of Europe's monetary union, throwing doubt on its long-term soundness and viability. Membership reversibility implicitly reintroduces the notion of currency risk for the euro-area's most vulnerable peripheral countries. It would also destabilise such neighbours as Albania, Romania, Bulgaria and Serbia, where Greek banks have significant presence.


Author(s):  
Manos Matsaganis

Manos Matsaganis provides an account of the most severe crisis of the Great Recession: that of Greece. He explains the conditions at the start of the crisis and how the situation developed. Greece was the first Euro area member to request a bailout, which was granted in return for massive fiscal consolidation and structural reforms. Matsaganis explains the bailout programme and its conditions, progress, and consequences, particularly the adverse effects of the austerity measures on living standards and poverty. The Greek welfare state was weak before the crisis hit and lacked a minimum income protection scheme. Thus it was incapable of providing shelter against the massive crisis impact, as reflected in the very large increase of financial hardship from 2007 to 2014 in most socio-economic groups. Matsaganis lastly reflects on the politics of welfare and how the crisis has affected the Greek welfare state to date.


2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Giorgio Baruchello

In this paper, 20th-century ethicist Philip Hallie’s research on cruelty is outlined and explained in order to determine and discuss categories of thought that make cruelty attributable to social forms of agency. The semantic ambiguity of “cruelty” and its cognate “cruel” are acknowledged and also discussed, but Hallie’s understanding is upheld nonetheless as technically articulate and, above all, as reasonable. As such, his understanding can be utilised to interpret and assess in ethical terms the recent austerity policies pursued in many countries of the world after the 2008 economic crash, which was induced by unsustainable deregulated trade of financial assets, particularly of toxic assets. The case of Greece is examined as exemplary, referring especially to the Loan Agreements of May 2010 between the representatives of the Greek State and those of the Euro-area Member States under the aegis of the International Monetary Fund.


2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-146
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Wicha

The purpose of this article is to present the instruments and resources used by the International Monetary Fund to support the euro area countries in overcoming the financial crisis on the example of Greece. The article points out types of loan instruments and other measures taken by the IMF to support Greece. The author also indicates the reforms that had to be made at the IMF for a better and more efficient operation of this institution against the challenges of the global crisis. In addition, the specificity of cooperation between the IMF, the European Commission and the European Central Bank is analyzed.


Equilibrium ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 25-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Beck

Further economic and monetary integration in Europe is currently on hold due to the crisis and even questions about the possible exile of Greece. Especially in those conditions, it is important, to see whether integrated Europe can handle future problems and if economic and monetary integration can be helpful or rather more problematic. The main aim of this paper is to check to what degree business cycles are synchronized in the Eurozone and the European Union and what the main determinants of business cycles synchronization are. To achieve this, the following steps have been taken. Firstly, we turn to optimum currency area theory, to see what conditions need to be met, if the European Union and the euro area can use common monetary policy to deal with some economic shocks. Then, all necessary methodological explanations are presented. Later on, the preliminary data analysis is employed to see how business cycles and their determinants were acting during the last 20 years. Finally, panel data analysis is used to check how those determinants actually influence business cycles synchronization. The main finding of the article is that even though business cycles synchronization has been progressing in the European Union and the euro area so does the specialization – divergence in production structure. This may result in less synchronized business cycles in the future.


Author(s):  
Emil Adámek ◽  
Stanislav Kappel

The euro area is the biggest monetary union in the World. In post-crisis time, the possibilities of creation a new monetary union are discussed again. The aim of this article is to evaluate, according to OCA criteria, an appropriateness of selected countries for a membership in a monetary union or for creation new monetary union. The second aim is to confront the existing monetary union – the euro area, with two potential monetary areas – NAFTA and MERCOSUR. The criteria are based on the OCA theory and partly on the so called OCA index. According to the results, there are countries (so called core countries) such as Austria or Luxemburg which reach satisfactory values. On the other hand there are countries such as Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Greece or Italy which reach worse values. Quite surprisingly, the values of most indicators (except for DISSIM) have worsened since the crisis in the euro area. It seems to be convenient for both Canada and Mexico to adopt a common currency with the USA. In case of MERCOSUR we could barely find a pair of countries with better values compare with euro area’s all-time average.


2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Grote
Keyword(s):  

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Grote
Keyword(s):  

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