An Empirical Analysis of The Effect of Monetary Policy on Inflation in Nigeria; 1970 – 2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 841-859
Author(s):  
Nazifi Abdullahi Darma ◽  
Ozovehe Abdulsalami
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy

This study empirically analysed the effect of monetary policy on inflation in Nigeria; 1970 – 2018. The objective is to determine the effectiveness of monetary policy instruments on inflation in Nigeria. In doing this, relevant literature was reviewed and theoretical relationship between monetary policy and inflation was established following the quantity theory of money by Irving Fisher. The study employed time series data sourced from the statistical bulletin of Central bank of Nigeria (CBN) 2018. Stationarity test was also conducted on the time series data to determine the order of integration using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test. The unit root test revealed that inflation rate was stationary at level i.e. I(0) while monetary policy rate, treasury bill rate and cash reserve ratio were stationary at first difference i.e. I(1). The estimated results showed that there is cointegration between monetary policy variables and inflation rate in Nigeria. The results revealed that Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) was statistically significant in the short run after first difference, which indicates that monetary policy rate (MPR) exerts significant effect on inflation in Nigeria in the short run. Based on these findings, the study concluded that monetary policy variables alone are not sufficient enough in maintaining price stability in Nigeria. Therefore, the Federal government, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and policy makers should simultaneously use monetary and fiscal policy instruments to maintain price stability in Nigeria.

scholarly journals THE OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY INSTRUMENTS: THE CASE OF INDONESIA

2003 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 56-70
Author(s):  
Yoga Affandi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Optimal Monetary Policy ◽  
Monetary Target

In 1999, the central bank of Indonesia, Bank Indonesia, gained its independence. The new Central Bank Act has established a more explicit foundation for Bank Indonesia’s independence. Firstly, goal independence, in which Bank Indonesia sets its own monetary target. Secondly, instrument independence, in which Bank Indonesia implements various policy instruments to achieve that target. The primary objective of Bank Indonesia (henceforth BI) is to achieve and maintain price stability reflected in a low and stable inflation rate.

CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH – A CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-164
Author(s):  
Saddam Hussain ◽  
Chunjiao Yu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Relationship Of

This paper explores the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Pakistan, applying techniques of co-integration and Hsiao’s version of Granger causality, using time series data over the period 1965-2019. Time series data of macroeconomic determi-nants – i.e. energy growth, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) growth and population growth shows a positive correlation with economic growth while there is no correlation founded be-tween economic growth and inflation rate or Consumer Price Index (CPI). The general conclu-sion of empirical results is that economic growth causes energy consumption.

scholarly journals ANALISIS KAUSALITAS KEBIJAKAN FISKAL EKSPANSIF, KEBIJAKAN MONETER EKSPANSIF DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 55
Author(s):  
Fadhliah Yuniwinsah ◽  
Ali Anis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregression Model ◽  
Autoregression Model

This study examined the causality between expansionary fiscal policy, expansionary monetary policy and economic growth in Indonesia’s using a time series data with vector autoregression model (VAR) in the period of 1969-2018. The results of this study showed that are there is no causality between expansionary fiscal policy and expansionary monetary policy but there one-way relationship between them, it is the expansionary monetary policy gives influence to expansionary fiscal policy. There is no causality between expansionary fiscal policy and economic growth but there one-way relationship between them, It is economic growth gives influence to expansionary fiscal policy. And there is no causality between expansionary monetary policy and economic growth but there one-way relationship between them, it is economic growth gives influence to expansionary monetary policy.

scholarly journals Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-282
Author(s):  
Majid Hussain Phul ◽  
Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽  
Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used,  and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

Asset Quality and Deposit Money Banks Performance in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-47
Author(s):  
Mbatabbey Joy Ogboru
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Deposit Insurance ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bank Performance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asset Quality

This study investigate the relationship between asset quality and deposit money banks performance in Nigeria over a period of 30 years ranging from 1986 to 2016, utilizing time series data collected from the Nigeria deposit insurance corporation annual reports and accounts, CBN financial stability report and CBN statistically bulletin for various years. The variables of study includes return on asset (ROA) proxy for Deposit Money Bank performance in Nigeria, ratio of non-performing loan to total loan (NPL), ratio of liquid assets to total assets (LAT) and ratio of liquid assets to short term liabilities (LAS) as measures of asset quality. The study utilizes both the descriptive and econometric techniques to analyze the time series data. The result shows that there is a short run relationship between asset quality and deposit money bank performance in Nigeria. Also, the co-integration result reveals the presence of a long run relationship between asset quality and deposit money bank performance in Nigeria while the granger causality result shows evidence of causality between asset quality and deposit money bank performance in Nigeria. Based on this we conclude by saying that maintaining sound assets quality position is critical to the long term performance, survival and sustainability of DMBs in Nigeria.

A RESEARCH PAPER ON MONETARY POLICY AND INFRASTRUCTURAL GROWTH: FURTHER EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA.

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 467-484
Author(s):  
Sunday Osahon Igbinedion
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Affordable Housing ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Single Digit ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
The Face

Extant economic literature has acknowledged monetary policy as a key factor influencing infrastructural growth through different channels, such as affordable housing and efficient transportation, among others. However, in recent times, the Nigeria’s experience suggests a conflicting position on the above supposition. It is against this backdrop that this study set out to investigate the nexus between monetary policy and infrastructural growth within the Nigerian context, time series data from 1981 to 2018, and utilizing the Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) estimation technique. The results show that both real interest rate and inflation rate exerted negative and statistically significant impact on infrastructural growth, while federal government capital expenditure and net official development assistance impacted positively on the level of infrastructural growth in the period under assessment. In the light of the study’s findings, the study recommends that, the monetary authority should carefully review existing lending interest rate downward to a single digit that will be investment driven particularly in the face of current global economic uncertainties occasioned by the COVID-19 pandemic that has led to the collapse of many economies across the world.

scholarly journals WHICH VARIABLES PREDICT INDONESIA'S INFLATION?

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan Sunila Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Predictor Variables ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Monthly Time Series ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Exhaustive List

We use an exhaustive list of Indonesia’s macroeconomic variables in a comparative analysis to determine which predictor variables are most important in forecasting Indonesia’s inflation rate. We use monthly time-series data for 30 macroeconomic variables. Using both in-sample and out-of-sample predictability evaluations, we report consistent evidence of inflation rate predictability using 11 out of 30 macroeconomic variables.

scholarly journals Relationship between Crime and Economic Conditions in Sindh: A Time Series Approach from 1984-2015

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. p1
Author(s):  
Irfan Hussain Khan ◽  
Khan Alyas ◽  
Nighat Hanif ◽  
Ansa Zaiba
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formation ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Productive Capacity ◽  
Statistical Process ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Reported Crime

Using the time series data from 1984 to 2015, this study attempts to explore Sindh economic situation and the relationship between criminal activities. Three Variables are used for economic conditions, such as crime rate, dropout ratio and unemployment. We check their relationship with the reported crime. Enhanced Dicky Fuller test for unit root process indicates that all variables are stationary at the first level. For long-term relationships, Johanson-Cointegration technology has been applied. The results of the statistical process show that dropout ratio and unemployment are closely related to crime.VCM has been applied to check the short-run relationship between the variables. VCM results suggested that the model we estimate is divergent. Divergent model mean that there is no adjustment from long-run to short-run between variables as they are going away, if we increase the lag length, the model can become divergent but due to crime data unavailability it was difficult to increase the observations and the lags as well. Study gives evidence that economic conditions have significant impact on crimes and increasing dropout which is Positive related with crime in Sindh. It is also shown that the crime is influenced by economic condition. Government is capable to reduce that threat through effective target policies and legislation. The empirical results of this study will enhance understanding of the role of public sector policy formation in promoting national productive capacity by uplifting the positive effect of the Sindh economy.

scholarly journals Total Imports and Its Components Influence on Inflation in Kenya

2020 ◽  
pp. 54-62
Author(s):  
Evans Ovamba Kiganda ◽  
Margaret Atieno Omondi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests

Aim: The purpose of this study was to analyze the influence of total imports (TIMP) and its components of commercial imports (CIMP) and government imports (GIMP) on inflation in           Kenya. Study Design: Quantitative approach was employed to analyze the influence of imports on inflation in Kenya. Methodology: Monthly time series data from Central Bank of Kenya for the period 2005 to 2018 was used for analysis involving correlation analysis, variance decomposition, impulse response and Granger causality tests. Results: Results indicated that total imports and commercial imports had negative influence on inflation while government imports did not significantly influence inflation in Kenya. Unidirectional causality from total imports and commercial imports to inflation was noted while there was no causality between government imports and inflation. Conclusion: The study concluded that imports influence inflation in Kenya but commercial imports highly determined total imports influence on inflation in Kenya.

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