scholarly journals Models for integrating and identifying the effect of senescence on individual tree survival probability for Norway spruce

Silva Fennica ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jouni Siipilehto ◽  
Harri Mäkinen ◽  
Kjell Andreassen ◽  
Mikko Peltoniemi
Keyword(s):  
Survival Rate ◽  
Norway Spruce ◽  
Survival Probability ◽  
Stem Diameter ◽  
Stand Age ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
Old Growth ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Tree Survival

Ageing and competition reduce trees’ ability to capture resources, which predisposes them to death. In this study, the effect of senescence on the survival probability of Norway spruce ( (L.) Karst.) was analysed by fitting alternative survival probability models. Different model formulations were compared in the dataset, which comprised managed and unmanaged plots in long-term forest experiments in Finland and Norway, as well as old-growth stands in Finland. Stand total age ranged from 19 to 290 years. Two models were formulated without an age variable, such that the negative coefficient for the squared stem diameter described a decreasing survival probability for the largest trees. One of the models included stand age as a separate independent variable, and three models included an interaction term between stem diameter and stand age. According to the model including stand age and its interaction with stem diameter, the survival probability curves could intersect each other in stands with a similar structure but a different mean age. Models that did not include stand age underestimated the survival rate of the largest trees in the managed stands and overestimated their survival rate in the old-growth stands. Models that included stand age produced more plausible predictions, especially for the largest trees. The results supported the hypothesis that the stand age and senescence of trees decreases the survival probability of trees, and that the ageing effect improves survival probability models for Norway spruce.Picea abies

scholarly journals An integrated system for modeling tree and stand survival

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (10) ◽  
pp. 1405-1409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quang V. Cao
Keyword(s):  
Survival Probability ◽  
Mathematical Structure ◽  
Survival Model ◽  
Integrated System ◽  
Survival Models ◽  
Tree Level ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Tree Survival ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
Model Approach

Traditionally, separate models have been used to predict the number of trees per unit area (stand-level survival) and the survival probability of an individual tree (tree-level survival) at a certain age. This study investigated the development of integrated systems in which survival models at different levels of resolution are related in a mathematical structure. Two approaches for modeling tree and stand survival were considered: deriving a stand-level survival model from a tree-level survival model (approach 1) and deriving a tree survival model from a stand survival model (approach 2). Both approaches rely on finding a tree diameter that yields a tree survival probability equal to the stand-level survival probability. The tree and stand survival models from either approach are conceptually compatible with each other but not numerically compatible. Parameters of these models can be estimated either sequentially or simultaneously. Results indicated that approach 2, with parameters estimated sequentially (first from the stand survival model and then from the derived tree survival model), performed best in predicting both tree- and stand-level survival. Although disaggregation did not help improve prediction of tree-level survival, this method can be used when numerical consistency between stand and tree survival is desired.

Carbon pools in a montane old-growth Norway spruce ecosystem in Bohemian Forest: Effects of stand age and elevation

2015 ◽  
Vol 346 ◽  
pp. 106-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meelis Seedre ◽  
Jiří Kopáček ◽  
Pavel Janda ◽  
Radek Bače ◽  
Miroslav Svoboda
Keyword(s):  
Norway Spruce ◽  
Stand Age ◽  
Carbon Pools ◽  
Old Growth ◽  
Bohemian Forest

Modelling survival probability of individual trees in Norway spruce stands under different thinning regimes

2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 113-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kjell Karlsson ◽  
Lennart Norell
Keyword(s):  
Norway Spruce ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Site Index ◽  
Stand Age ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Test ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Thinning Intensity ◽  
Diameter At Breast Height ◽  
Breast Height

The probability that an individual tree will remain in even-aged Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) stands subjected to different thinning programmes was modelled, using data from a thinning experiment established in 25 localities in southern Sweden. A logistic regression approach was used to predict the probability and the Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test to evaluate the fit. Diameter at breast height (DBH), quadratic mean DBH, thinning intensity, thinning quotient, basal area, number of stems per hectare, stand age, number of thinnings, and site index were used as explanatory variables. Separate analyses for stands thinned from below, stands thinned from above, and unthinned stands were performed. The modelled probability graphs for trees not being removed, plotted against their diameter at breast height, had clear S-shapes for both unthinned stands and stands thinned from below. The graph for stands thinned from above was bell-shaped.

A new method for evaluating forest thinning: growth dominance in managed Pinus resinosa stands

2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (5) ◽  
pp. 843-849 ◽  
Author(s):  
John B. Bradford ◽  
Anthony W. D’Amato ◽  
Brian J. Palik ◽  
Shawn Fraver
Keyword(s):  
Tree Growth ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Pinus Resinosa ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Red Pine ◽  
New Method ◽  
Stand Age ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Individual Tree Growth

Growth dominance is a relatively new, simple, quantitative metric of within-stand individual tree growth patterns, and is defined as positive when larger trees in the stand display proportionally greater growth than smaller trees, and negative when smaller trees display proportionally greater growth than larger trees. We examined long-term silvicultural experiments in red pine ( Pinus resinosa Ait.) to characterize how stand age, thinning treatments (thinned from above, below, or both), and stocking levels (residual basal area) influence stand-level growth dominance through time. In stands thinned from below or from both above and below, growth dominance was not significantly different from zero at any age or stocking level. Growth dominance in stands thinned from above trended from negative at low stocking levels to positive at high stocking levels and was positive in young stands. Growth dominance in unthinned stands was positive and increased with age. These results suggest that growth dominance provides a useful tool for assessing the efficacy of thinning treatments designed to reduce competition between trees and promote high levels of productivity across a population, particularly among crop trees.

Wood density in Norway spruce: changes with thinning intensity and tree age

2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (7) ◽  
pp. 1767-1778 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tuula Jaakkola ◽  
Harri Mäkinen ◽  
Pekka Saranpää
Keyword(s):  
Norway Spruce ◽  
Wood Density ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Tree Age ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Thinning Intensity ◽  
Individual Tree Growth ◽  
Spruce Stands ◽  
Individual Trees

The effect of thinning intensity on growth and wood density in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) was investigated in two long-term thinning experiments in southeastern Finland. The stands were approaching maturity, and their development had already been studied for 30 years. The intensities of thinning were low, normal, and high (i.e., the stand basal area after the thinning was, on average, 40, 27, and 24 m2·ha–1, respectively, in Heinola, and 30, 28, and 17 m2·ha–1 in Punkaharju, respectively). Compared with the low thinning intensity, the normal and high thinning intensities increased the basal-area increment of individual trees by 52% and 68%, respectively. Normal and high thinning intensities resulted in a relatively small reduction (1%–4%) of mean ring density compared with low thinning intensity. The random variation in wood density between and within trees was large. About 27% of the total variation in wood density was related to variation between rings. Our results indicate that the prevailing thinning intensities in Norway spruce stands in Fennoscandia cause no marked changes in wood density. At least, the possible reduction in wood density is low compared with the increase in individual tree growth.

scholarly journals Evaluating the long-term influence of alternative commercial thinning regimes and harvesting systems on projected net present value of precommercially thinned spruce–fir stands in northern Maine

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-214 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Hiesl ◽  
Mindy S. Crandall ◽  
Aaron Weiskittel ◽  
Jeffrey G. Benjamin ◽  
Robert G. Wagner
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Stand Age ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Yield Model ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Commercial Thinning ◽  
Harvesting Systems ◽  
Timing Of Entry

Commercial thinning (CT) is an important silvicultural practice in the northeastern United States. Relatively little is known, however, about the interaction of harvest system and treatment (removal intensity or timing of entry) on the overall profitability of CT. To address this question, 10-year measurements from a controlled CT experiment across six sites in Maine were used to project the long-term effect of removal intensity (33% and 50% relative density reduction) and timing of entry (no delay, 5-year delay, 10-year delay) on (i) maximum net present value (NPV), (ii) timing of maximum NPV, and (iii) the effect of three harvesting systems (cut-to-length, whole-tree, hybrid systems) on maximum NPV. A regional growth and yield model was used to project individual-tree growth and mortality into the future. Harvest costs for the harvesting systems were estimated using regional cycle-time equations. No difference was found in maximum NPV between the CT and non-CT areas or the timing of CT entry. Stand age at time of maximum NPV differed between delays but not between the two removal intensities. Our results indicate that there is no economic benefit in delaying a CT or removing more volume at the time of thinning for the range of stand conditions evaluated.

scholarly journals Opportunities and limitations of exotic Pinus radiata as a facilitative nurse for New Zealand indigenous forest restoration

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam S. Forbes ◽  
David A. Norton ◽  
Fiona E. Carswell
Keyword(s):  
Pinus Radiata ◽  
Natural Forest ◽  
Forest Community ◽  
Stand Age ◽  
Native Forest ◽  
Forest Species ◽  
Old Growth ◽  
Indigenous Forest ◽  
The Relationship

Background: We investigated the long-term potential of non-harvest Pinus radiata plantations for the facilitation and restoration of a natural forest community dominated by indigenous woody species. We investigated the relationship between indigenous regeneration and light levels and the hypothesis that proximity to indigenous seed sources is critical. We studied nine Pinus radiata stands of different ages located within Kinleith Forest, which is a large (ca. 66 000 ha) commercial exotic plantation forest located in New Zealand’s central North Island. Methods: We constructed a chronosequence of P. radiata plantation stands aged 2–89 years to represent long-term natural forest regeneration following plantation establishment. We surveyed structural, compositional and contextual aspects of this secondary succession and compared these results with an old-growth indigenous forest reference site located within the study area. Results: The exotic P. radiata canopy facilitated a regeneration trajectory characterised by shade-tolerant indigenous forest species. We found that the structure and composition of P. radiata understories were strongly influenced by stand age and proximity to indigenous forest. Stand age was important from the perspective of creating shaded conditions for the establishment of shade-tolerant woody forest species. Our results suggest that proximal indigenous forest was required for the consistent natural establishment of larger-fruited, bird-dispersed mature forest canopy species in P. radiata plantations. Conclusions: Our results showed that, even at ecologically isolated sites, the microclimate conditions created by plantation Pinus radiata stands supported a suite of readily-dispersed indigenous forest plants. Based on these results we suggest that non-harvest P. radiata stands provide an important opportunity for the restoration of indigenous forest communities in New Zealand’s production landscapes. Where restoration of forest composition similar to old-growth is the restoration objective, however, interventions might be necessary to direct and accelerate the secondary forest succession. Further replicated study is required into the relationship between native forest proximity and understorey regeneration patterns.

Relationships between growth, quality, and stocking within managed old-growth northern hardwoods

2012 ◽  
Vol 42 (6) ◽  
pp. 1115-1125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Gronewold ◽  
Anthony W. D’Amato ◽  
Brian J. Palik
Keyword(s):  
Growth Dynamics ◽  
Quality Development ◽  
Old Growth ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Upper Peninsula ◽  
Northern Hardwood ◽  
Tree Quality ◽  
Upper Peninsula Of Michigan ◽  
Level Production

An understanding of long-term growth dynamics is central to the development of sustainable uneven-aged silvicultural systems for northern hardwood forests in eastern North America. Of particular importance are quantitative assessments of the relationships between stocking control and long-term growth and quality development. This study examined these relationships in a long-term silviculture experiment established in northern hardwood stands in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA. Stands were old growth at the onset of the experiment and were maintained at three residual stocking levels (11.5, 16.1, and 20.7 m2·ha–1) over a 57-year period. Several aspects of long-term stocking control were evaluated, including the effects of residual stocking on tree quality development and the relationships between stand stocking and individual tree growth and stand-level production. Results suggest that residual stocking had little impact on quality development, likely due to the initial old-growth condition of the stands examined. In contrast, our results indicate that a range of stand densities will maintain acceptable rates of stand-level production in selection systems and that growth can be shifted between diameter classes depending on desired future stand conditions.

Modern Possibilities of Organ-Preserving Treatment in Children with Intraocular Retinoblastoma

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 175-187 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. V. Gorovtsova ◽  
T. L. Ushakova ◽  
V. G. Polyakov
Keyword(s):  
Drug Delivery ◽  
Survival Rate ◽  
Cancer Therapy ◽  
Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy ◽  
Patient Survival ◽  
Focal Therapy ◽  
Local Drug Delivery ◽  
Large Size ◽  
Intraocular Retinoblastoma

Retinoblastoma is one of highly curable diseases; today the total 5-year survival rate in patients with retinoblastoma exceeds 95%. The article summarizes the current world experience on treatment of patients with intraocular retinoblastoma. The treating skills of intraocular malignant tumor in children are a balance between the patient’s life and the preservation of an eye and its visual functions. The complex and challenging task is the treatment of common intraocular retinoblastoma groups «C», «D», «E» when the large size or localization of the tumor does not allow performing the local (focal) destruction of the tumor. As a rule, in such cases neoadjuvant chemotherapy (CT) is performed at the first stage in order to reduce the size of the tumor for further focal therapy. However, the analysed data on the effectiveness of neoadjuvant CT in combination with focal or radiotherapy demonstrated the limited possibilities of the proposed therapy. Local drug delivery in cancer therapy became a real breakthrough in the organ-preserving treatment of children with large intraocular retinoblastoma. The most widely used current methods of local drug delivery are intravitreal (IVitC) and selective intra-arterial chemotherapy (SIAC) as monotherapy or in combination with neoadjuvant CT and focal therapy which significantly increased the percentage of preserved eyes without radiotherapy administration or damage to the patient survival. The review discusses the different IVitC and SIAC techniques, chemotherapy schemes, dosages of chemotherapy, immediate and long-term complications of treatment.

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