scholarly journals Impact of contact tracing on COVID-19 mortality: An impact evaluation using surveillance data from Colombia

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0246987
Author(s):  
Andres I. Vecino-Ortiz ◽  
Juliana Villanueva Congote ◽  
Silvana Zapata Bedoya ◽  
Zulma M. Cucunuba
Keyword(s):  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
Surveillance Strategy ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
The Public ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Crucial Part

Background Contact tracing is a crucial part of the public health surveillance toolkit. However, it is labor-intensive and costly to carry it out. Some countries have faced challenges implementing contact tracing, and no impact evaluations using empirical data have assessed its impact on COVID-19 mortality. This study assesses the impact of contact tracing in a middle-income country, providing data to support the expansion and optimization of contact tracing strategies to improve infection control. Methods We obtained publicly available data on all confirmed COVID-19 cases in Colombia between March 2 and June 16, 2020. (N = 54,931 cases over 135 days of observation). As suggested by WHO guidelines, we proxied contact tracing performance as the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing out of all cases identified. We calculated the daily proportion of cases identified through contact tracing across 37 geographical units (32 departments and five districts). Further, we used a sequential log-log fixed-effects model to estimate the 21-days, 28-days, 42-days, and 56-days lagged impact of the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing on daily COVID-19 mortality. Both the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing and the daily number of COVID-19 deaths are smoothed using 7-day moving averages. Models control for the prevalence of active cases, second-degree polynomials, and mobility indices. Robustness checks to include supply-side variables were performed. Results We found that a 10 percent increase in the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing is related to COVID-19 mortality reductions between 0.8% and 3.4%. Our models explain between 47%-70% of the variance in mortality. Results are robust to changes of specification and inclusion of supply-side variables. Conclusion Contact tracing is instrumental in containing infectious diseases. Its prioritization as a surveillance strategy will substantially impact reducing deaths while minimizing the impact on the fragile economic systems of lower and middle-income countries. This study provides lessons for other LMIC.

scholarly journals Impact of contact tracing on COVID-19 mortality: An impact evaluation using surveillance data from Colombia.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andres I. Vecino-Ortiz ◽  
Juliana Villanueva Congote ◽  
Silvana Zapata Bedoya ◽  
Zulma M Cucunuba
Keyword(s):  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
Surveillance Strategy ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Daily Number ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
The Impact

Background Contact tracing is a key part of the public health surveillance toolkit. However, it is labor intensive and costly to carry it out. Some countries have faced challenges implementing contact tracing, and no impact evaluations to our knowledge have assessed its impact on COVID-19 mortality. This study assesses the impact of contact tracing in a middle-income country and provides data to support the expansion of contact tracing strategies with the aim of improving infection control. Methods We obtained publicly available data on all confirmed COVID-19 cases in Colombia between March 2 and June 16, 2020. (N=54,931 cases over 135 days of observation). We proxied contact tracing performance as the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing out of all cases identified, as suggested by WHO guidelines. We calculated the daily proportion of cases identified through contact tracing across 37 geographical units (32 departments and five districts). Further, we used a sequential log-log fixed-effects model to estimate the 21-days, 28-days, 42-days and 56-days lagged impact of the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing on the daily number of COVID-19 deaths. Both the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing and the daily number of COVID-19 deaths are smoothed using 7-day moving averages. Models control for prevalence of active cases, second-degree polynomials, and mobility indices. Robustness checks to include supply-side variables were performed. Results We found that a 10 percent increase in the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing is related to COVID-19 mortality reductions between 0.8% and 3.4%. Our models explain between 47%-70% of the variance in mortality. Results are robust to changes of specification and inclusion of supply-side variables. Conclusion Contact tracing is instrumental to contain infectious diseases and its prioritization as a surveillance strategy will have a substantial impact on reducing deaths while minimizing the impact on the fragile economic systems of lower and middle-income countries. This study provides lessons for other LMIC.

scholarly journals A Model Based Analysis for COVID-19 Pandemic in India: Implications for Health Systems and Policy for Low- and Middle-Income Countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shankar Prinja ◽  
Pankaj Bahuguna ◽  
Yashika Chugh ◽  
Anna Vassall ◽  
Arvind Pandey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health System ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
System Response ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBackgroundOur analysis aims to model COVID-19 pandemic in India, potential impact of various measures, along with assessment of health system preparedness and cost to manage the epidemic.MethodsWe developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) mathematical model to predict the health outcomes under an unmitigated scenario which comprises of air travel restrictions alone, and the current scenario consisting of air travel restrictions along with 8-week lockdown. In addition, we also evaluate the effectiveness of 8-week lockdown along with intensified public health measures at varying level of effectiveness. We assessed the impact of these interventions on COVID-19 related health outcomes in comparison to the unmitigated scenario. Next, we ascertain the need for augmenting infrastructure and the costs of COVID-19 management in India.FindingsIn the event of a lockdown for 8 weeks, the peak of the epidemic shifts by 34-76 days, and the number of cases at the end of 8-week lockdown reduces by 69% to 97% with varying effectiveness of lockdown. However, the cumulative long-term cases remain the same. Intensification of public health surveillance measures with 60% effectiveness is estimated to reduce the cases at peak and cumulative number of infections by 70% and 26.6% respectively. The requirement of ICU beds and ventilators would reduce by 83% with intensified public health measures. The cost of managing COVID-19 in India is nearly 4.5% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the absence of any intervention which increases to 6.2% with intensified public health measures for COVID-19 response.ConclusionLockdown measures delay the onset of peak, and give much needed time to health system to prepare. Strengthening the public health system response in terms of testing, isolation treatment of cases, and contact tracing needs would lead to significant gains in terms of case load, and meeting health system needs.SummaryWhat is already known?A few studies have been carried out in Indian context to model the epidemic. These models explored the impact of lockdowns and social distancing measures focusing more on the course of the epidemic but none of these evaluated the impact on health system’s response needed as well as the economic impact of COVID-19 management in India. The findings from these studies are limited in a sense that either these studies evaluated the hypothetical scenarios of strategies implemented or focusing to smaller geographical regions in India.What are the new findings?Evidence pertaining to health economic impact of COVID-19 management, in context to Low- and Middle-Income countries, is very limited. To address this, we used the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to assess:the health system preparedness challenge in terms of hospital beds for isolation, intensive care and ventilators which would be required to manage the epidemic and the economic implications of managing the COVID-19 pandemic in India.the incremental cost of intensified public health measures per infection and per death averted.What do the new finding imply?In India, measures such as lockdowns would certainly delays the onset of peak of COVID-19 epidemic. This would help delay the surge of cases, which would buy time for the health system to prepare. Strengthening the health system response in terms of enhanced testing, isolation of cases, treatment and contact tracing, as is being done currently, would have to be the mainstay to reduce the impact of the pandemic in terms of reduction in infected population and COID-19 deaths in India until vaccine becomes available.

scholarly journals Cities drifting apart: Heterogeneous outcomes of decentralizing public education

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zelda Brutti
Keyword(s):  
Public Education ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Local Development ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Performance Trends ◽  
Inequality In Education ◽  
Education Performance ◽  
The Impact

AbstractLooking at the decentralized provision of public education in a middle-income country, this paper estimates the impact of local autonomy on service quality, finding large heterogeneity in the effect across different levels of local development. In the year 2002, Colombian municipalities were entrusted with autonomous management of their local public education based solely on a population threshold. I estimate the impact that autonomy has had on education performance across the territory, using a municipality and time fixed-effects model. I find a quality gap arising between highly developed and low-developed autonomous municipalities, in a trend that reinforces over time: the reform has induced regional inequality in education quality. I am able to support the hypothesis that autonomous and nonautonomous municipalities were on similar performance trends before decentralization was implemented, even when looking within different local development ranges. Based on the analysis of detailed municipal balance sheet data and administration indicators, I argue that local administration capacity represents the most likely explanation of why the autonomy-related discrepancies have been arising.

scholarly journals Respiratory epidemics and older people

2020 ◽  
Vol 49 (6) ◽  
pp. 896-900
Author(s):  
Sathyanarayanan Doraiswamy ◽  
Ravinder Mamtani ◽  
Marco Ameduri ◽  
Amit Abraham ◽  
Sohaila Cheema
Keyword(s):  
Older People ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Global Epidemic ◽  
The Public ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Low Middle Income Countries ◽  
Full Participation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Urgent Action

Abstract Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been particularly severe on older people. Past coronavirus epidemics namely Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome have also been severe on older people. These epidemics lasted for only a limited period, however, and have proven short lived in the memories of both the public and public health systems. No lessons were learnt to mitigate the impact of future epidemics of such nature, on older people. This complacency we feel has claimed the lives of many older people during the current COVID-19 global epidemic. The nature of risks associated with acquiring infections and associated mortality among older people in respiratory epidemic situations are varied and of serious concern. Our commentary identifies demographic, biological, behavioural, social and healthcare-related determinants, which increase the vulnerability of older people to respiratory epidemics. We acknowledge that these determinants will likely vary between older people in high- and low-middle income countries. Notwithstanding these variations, we call for urgent action to mitigate the impact of epidemics on older people and preserve their health and dignity. Intersectoral programmes that recognise the special needs of older people and in unique contexts such as care homes must be developed and implemented, with the full participation and agreement of older people. COVID-19 has created upheaval, challenging humanity and threatening the lives, rights, and well-being of older people. We must ensure that we remain an age-friendly society and make the world a better place for all including older people.

Dampak Kebijakan Moneter Pada Output Di Negara-Negara ASEAN Tahun 1980-2014

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-70
Author(s):  
Nur Widiastuti
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
State Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
The Impact

The Impact of monetary Policy on Ouput is an ambiguous. The results of previous empirical studies indicate that the impact can be a positive or negative relationship. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of monetary policy on Output more detail. The variables to estimatate monetery poicy are used state and board interest rate andrate. This research is conducted by Ordinary Least Square or Instrumental Variabel, method for 5 countries ASEAN. The state data are estimated for the period of 1980 – 2014. Based on the results, it can be concluded that the impact of monetary policy on Output shown are varied.Keyword: Monetary Policy, Output, Panel Data, Fixed Effects Model

The Impact of Covid 19 on Pregnant Women and Child Health

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 1367-1373
Author(s):  
Nikhil Sanjay Mujbaile ◽  
Smita Damke
Keyword(s):  
Social Issues ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Low Middle Income Countries ◽  
The Social ◽  
Social Separation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
And Child Health ◽  
General Wellbeing

The Covid illness (COVID-19) pandemic has spread rapidly all through the world and has had a drawn-out impact. The Pandemic has done incredible damage to society and made genuine mental injury to numerous individuals. Mental emergencies frequently cause youngsters to deliver sentiments of relinquishment, despondency, insufficiency, and fatigue and even raise the danger of self-destruction. Youngsters with psychological instabilities are particularly powerless during the isolate and colonial removing period. Convenient and proper assurances are expected to forestall the event of mental and social issues. The rising advanced applications and wellbeing administrations, for example, telehealth, web-based media, versatile wellbeing, and far off intuitive online instruction can connect the social separation and backing mental and conduct wellbeing for youngsters. Because of the mental advancement qualities of youngsters, this investigation additionally outlines intercessions on the mental effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Further difficulties in Low Middle-Income Countries incorporate the failure to actualize successful general wellbeing estimates, for example, social separating, hand cleanliness, definitive distinguishing proof of contaminated individuals with self-disconnection and widespread utilization of covers The aberrant impacts of the Pandemic on youngster wellbeing are of extensive concern, including expanding neediness levels, upset tutoring, absence of admittance to the class taking care of plans, decreased admittance to wellbeing offices and breaks in inoculation and other kid wellbeing programs. Kept tutoring is critical for kids in Low Middle-Income Countries. Arrangement of safe situations is mainly testing in packed asset obliged schools. 

scholarly journals Cultural and Creative Cities and Regional Economic Efficiency: Context Conditions as Catalyzers of Cultural Vibrancy and Creative Economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 7150
Author(s):  
Silvia Cerisola ◽  
Elisa Panzera
Keyword(s):  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Local Context ◽  
Creative Economy ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
Creative Cities ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Innovative Methodology ◽  
Holistic Conception ◽  
Panel Fixed Effects ◽  
The Impact

Following the hype that has been given to culture and creativity as triggers and enhancers of local economic performance in the last 20 years, this work originally contributes to the literature with the objective of assessing the impact of cultural and creative cities (CCCs) on the economic output of their regions. In this sense, the cultural and creative character of cities is considered a strategic strength and opportunity that can spillover, favoring the economic system of the entire regions in which the cities are located. Through an innovative methodology that exploits a regional production function estimated by a panel fixed effects model, the effect of cities’ cultural vibrancy and creative economy on the output of their regions is econometrically explored. The data source is the Cultural and Creative Cities Monitor (CCCM) provided by the JRC, which also allows the investigation of the possible role played by the enabling environment in catalyzing the action of cultural vibrancy and creative economy. The results are thoroughly examined: especially through cultural vibrancy, CCCs strategically support the output of their region. This is particularly the case when local context conditions—such as human capital and education, openness, tolerance and trust, and quality of governance—catalyze their effect. Overall, CCCs contribute to feeding a long-term self-supporting system, interpreted according to a holistic conception that includes economic, social, cultural, and environmental domains.

Defining Preterm Birth and Stillbirth in the Western Pacific: A Systematic Review

2021 ◽  
pp. 101053952110260
Author(s):  
Mairead Connolly ◽  
Laura Phung ◽  
Elise Farrington ◽  
Michelle J. L. Scoullar ◽  
Alyce N. Wilson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Preterm Birth ◽  
National Level ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
World Health ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

Preterm birth and stillbirth are important global perinatal health indicators. Definitions of these indicators can differ between countries, affecting comparability of preterm birth and stillbirth rates across countries. This study aimed to document national-level adherence to World Health Organization (WHO) definitions of preterm birth and stillbirth in the WHO Western Pacific region. A systematic search of government health websites and 4 electronic databases was conducted. Any official report or published study describing the national definition of preterm birth or stillbirth published between 2000 and 2020 was eligible for inclusion. A total of 58 data sources from 21 countries were identified. There was considerable variation in how preterm birth and stillbirth was defined across the region. The most frequently used lower gestational age threshold for viability of preterm birth was 28 weeks gestation (range 20-28 weeks), and stillbirth was most frequently classified from 20 weeks gestation (range 12-28 weeks). High-income countries more frequently used earlier gestational ages for preterm birth and stillbirth compared with low- to middle-income countries. The findings highlight the importance of clear, standardized, internationally comparable definitions for perinatal indicators. Further research is needed to determine the impact on regional preterm birth and stillbirth rates.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document