The Impact of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy and Its Normalization in the Philippines A Capital Flow Perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-162
Author(s):  
Ivy G. Sabuga ◽  
◽  
Jacinta Bernadette Rico Shirakawa ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 429
Author(s):  
Hardik A. Marfatia ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Keagile Lesame

In this paper, we estimate the dynamic impact of unconventional monetary policy in the US on international REITs. Unlike existing studies which are limited to conventional policy tools and undertake a static approach, we use an event study approach and estimate a time-varying parameter model to investigate the dynamic impact of forward guidance (FG) and large-scale asset purchases (LSAP) shocks on the international REIT returns. We also compare the effects of these unconventional tools with the effects of conventional federal funds rate (FFR) shocks. The results show that the response of international REITs to unconventional policy shocks depends on the time under consideration. FG shocks have greater time-variation in the impact on REIT returns compared to LSAP shocks, particularly with Australia, Belgium, and the US REIT markets. Furthermore, FG shocks broadly have a negative impact on REITs while the results for LSAP effects are mixed. We also find that in most countries, REITs time-varying response of FG shocks is related to changes in gold prices and financial conditions.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 145-158
Author(s):  
Silvia Trifonova ◽  
◽  
Svilen Kolev ◽  

This paper is devoted to the unconventional monetary policy measures implemented by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) after the global financial crisis. The objective is to conduct an empirical analysis and econometric study on the effects of the US Fed non-standard monetary policy measures on the US financial market, namely by observing the reaction on the US 10-year government bond yield, the US stock market via the S&P 500 index, and the exchange rate of the US dollar versus the euro (EUR/USD). The observed period spreads from January 2009 to March 2019, with the use of monthly data. It captures the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy measures, the first steps of the then planned gradual termination of quantitative easing (QE) and lifting of the interest rates, which was reverted in the course of 2019 and 2020. The results from the constructed vector error correction model suggest that Fed’s monetary policy stance continues to influence the changes in the bond yields, the S&P 500 index, and the value of the US dollar through the interest rate, the portfolio balance, and the exchange rate channels. The findings show that the process of normalization of the monetary policy regarding the future interest rates path in the US under the Fed’s monetary policy must be carefully guided. It must be consistent with the macroeconomic conditions and the state of the financial sector. The impact on the developed and emerging markets must be considered as well, with the main aim of avoiding potential serious risks.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 165
Author(s):  
Thi Tran ◽  
Hoang Pham

This paper aims to trace the monthly responses of equity prices, long-term interest rates, and exchange rates in Asian developing markets to the US unconventional monetary policy (UMP). The main research question is to explore whether UMP shocks exist in those markets. We also consider the differences in the mean responses of those asset prices between traditional and non-traditional monetary policy phases. To address such concerns, we employ a panel vector autoregression with exogenous variables (Panel VARX) model and estimate the model by the least-squares dummy variable (LSDV) estimator in three different periods spanning from 2004M2 to 2018M4. The first finding is that UMP shocks from the US are associated with a surge in equity prices, a decline in long-term interest rates, and an appreciation of currencies in Asian developing markets. In contrast, the conventional monetary policy shocks from the US seem to exert adverse effects on these recipient countries. These empirical results suggest that the policymakers in Asian developing countries should cautiously take into account the spillover effects from the US unconventional monetary policy once it is executed.


2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 175-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brigitte Young

Unconventional monetary policy was implemented as a result of the financial crisis and resulted in rising asset prices in the stock markets. While the increase in asset prices is not exclusively triggered by unconventional monetary policy, central bankers accept that unconventional monetary policy has resulted in distributional effects on wealth, and that these are not negligible. What is missing are studies analyzing whether these non-standard monetary policies have different distributional effects on women and men. The intent of the paper is to interrogate whether unconventional monetary policy of central banks has a gender bias that operates in favor of men as gender and against women as gender. Relying on insights from feminist economics, the paper uses the results of the ECB Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) of 62,000 household across 15 euro-area countries. While the results are tentative, they show an asymmetric distributional gendered impact. Since the rich own more assets than the poor, and since monetary easing works in part by raising asset prices, these unconventional policies may unintentionally benefit the wealthier quintile (on average more male) at the expense of the poorer strata of society (on average more female).


2015 ◽  
Vol 83 ◽  
pp. 51-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Cloyne ◽  
Ryland Thomas ◽  
Alex Tuckett ◽  
Samuel Wills

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