scholarly journals Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve

2000 ◽  
Vol 2000 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
George A. Akerlof ◽  
William T. Dickens ◽  
George L. Perry
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Price Setting ◽  
Long Run

scholarly journals Inflation and Unemployment Trade-off: Is Phillips Curve True for African Developing Countries? Evidence from Sudan

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Omer Allagabo Omer Mustafa
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Economic Thought ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Wage Inflation ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between wage inflation and unemployment (Phillips Curve) is controversial in economic thought, and the controversy is centered around whether there is always a trade-off or not. If this relationship is negative it is called The short-run Fillips Curve. However, in the long run, this relationship may probable not exist. The matter of how inflation and unemployment influence economic growth, is debatably among macroeconomic policymakers. This study examines the behavior of the Phillips Curve in Sudan and its effect on economic growth.

An Agent-Based Model to Forecast the Inflation Rate in the Eurozone

2017 ◽  
pp. 72-92
Author(s):  
Juan Luis Santos ◽  
Jagoda Anna Kaszowska ◽  
Tomás Mancha Navarro
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Single Agent ◽  
Market Equilibrium ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Inflation Rates

The aim of the agent-based model presented in this chapter is to explain the determinants of inflation and to forecast the inflation rate in the Eurozone for the next five years. The behaviors of agents and their expectations are interrelated and explained by macroeconomic models applied to heterogeneous agents of three classes: individuals, companies and financial institutions. In addition, the behavior of public sector and central bank is also modeled with a single agent of each kind. Once the quantitative easing policy is implemented, the quantitative theory of money expects higher inflation rates in the long run. Inflation should remain low taking into account the Phillips-Curve. Last, according to the Aggregated Supply and Demand as well as to the Money Market equilibrium, the behaviors modeled allow forecasting low inflation. However, an external shock, as it would be an increase in the price of important commodities, can alter the inflation rate to a great extent.

scholarly journals A STICKY–DISPERSED INFORMATION PHILLIPS CURVE: A MODEL WITH PARTIAL AND DELAYED INFORMATION

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 747-773
Author(s):  
Marta B. M. Areosa ◽  
Waldyr D. Areosa ◽  
Vinicius Carrasco
Keyword(s):  
Standard Model ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
The State ◽  
Price Setting ◽  
Unique Equilibrium ◽  
Sticky Information ◽  
Pricing Decisions ◽  
Delayed Information ◽  
Main Effect ◽  
Noisy Signals

We study the interaction between dispersed and sticky information by assuming that firms receive private noisy signals about the state in an otherwise standard model of price setting with sticky information. We compute the unique equilibrium of the game induced by the firms’ pricing decisions and derive the resulting Phillips curve. The main effect of dispersion is to magnify the immediate impact of a given shock when the degree of stickiness is small. Its effect on persistence is minor: even when information is largely dispersed, a substantial amount of informational stickiness is needed to generate persistence in aggregate prices and inflation.

scholarly journals Can Agents with Causal Misperceptions be Systematically Fooled?

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 583-617 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ran Spiegler
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Directed Acyclic Graph ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Causal Model ◽  
Expected Value ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Acyclic Graph ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Individual Variables

Abstract An agent forms estimates (or forecasts) of individual variables conditional on some observed signal. His estimates are based on fitting a subjective causal model—formalized as a directed acyclic graph, following the “Bayesian networks” literature—to objective long-run data. I show that the agent’s average estimates coincide with the variables’ true expected value (for any underlying objective distribution) if and only if the agent’s graph is perfect—that is, it directly links every pair of variables that it perceives as causes of some third variable. This result identifies neglect of direct correlation between perceived causes as the kind of causal misperception that can generate systematic prediction errors. I demonstrate the relevance of this result for economic applications: speculative trade, manipulation of a firm’s reputation, and a stylized “monetary policy” example in which the inflation-output relation obeys an expectational Phillips Curve.

Phillips curve and long-run inflation under commitment

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-35
Author(s):  
Dario Pontiggia
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Monetary Authority ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rule Of Thumb ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Forward Looking

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to study the optimal long-run rate of inflation in the presence of a hybrid Phillips curve, which nests a purely backward-looking Phillips curve and the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) as special limiting cases.Design/methodology/approachThis paper derives the long-run rate of inflation in a basic New Keynesian (NK) model, characterized by sticky prices and rule-of-thumb behavior by price setters. The monetary authority possesses commitment and its objective function stems from an approximation to the utility of the representative household.FindingsCommitment solution for the monetary authority leads to steady-state outcomes in which inflation, albeit small, is positive. Rising from zero under the purely forward-looking NKPC, the optimal long-run rate of inflation reaches its maximum under the purely backward-looking Phillips curve. In this case, inflation bias arises, while, under the hybrid Phillips curve, positive long-run inflation is associated with an output gain.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper serves as a clarification against the misperception that log-linearized models take as given the steady-state inflation rate rather than being capable of determining it. Analysis is sensitive to the basic NK setting, with the assumed rule-of-thumb behavior by price setters and price staggering.Originality/valueThe results are the first to quantify the optimal long-run rate of inflation in a fully microfounded model that nests different Phillips curves.

scholarly journals IS BUSINESS CYCLE ASYMMETRY INTRINSIC IN INDUSTRIALIZED ECONOMIES?

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 1403-1436 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Morley ◽  
Irina B. Panovska
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Capacity Utilization ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Underlying Structure ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Cycle Asymmetry ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Intrinsic Characteristic

We consider a model-averaged forecast-based estimate of the output gap to measure economic slack in 10 industrialized economies. Our measure takes changes in the long-run growth rate into account and, by addressing model uncertainty using equal weights on different forecast-based estimates, is robust to different assumptions about the underlying structure of the economy. For all 10 countries in the sample, we find that the estimated output gap has much larger negative movements during recessions than positive movements in expansions, suggesting business cycle asymmetry is an intrinsic characteristic of industrialized economies. Furthermore, the estimated output gap is always strongly negatively correlated with future output growth and unemployment and positively correlated with capacity utilization. It also implies a convex Phillips Curve in many cases. The model-averaged output gap is reliable in real time in the sense of being subject to relatively small revisions.

scholarly journals The wrong track also leads someplace: Milton Friedman's presidential address at 50

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 517-532 ◽  
Author(s):  
Servaas Storm
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Presidential Address ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Financial Fragility ◽  
American Economic Association ◽  
Structural Forces ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Economic Association ◽  
The Right ◽  
Do So

Milton Friedman's presidential address to the American Economic Association holds a mythical status as the harbinger of the supply-side counter-revolution in macroeconomics – centred on the rejection of the long-run Phillips-curve inflation–unemployment trade-off. Friedman (seconded by Edmund Phelps) argued that the long run is determined by ‘structural’ forces, not demand, and his view swept the profession and dominated academic economics and macro policymaking for four decades. Friedman, tragically, put macroeconomics on the wrong track which led to disaster: secular stagnation, rising inequality, mounting indebtedness, financial fragility, a banking catastrophe and recession – and no free lunches. This is Friedman's legacy. We have to unlearn the wrong lessons and return macroeconomics to the right track. To do so, this paper shows that Friedman's (and Phelps's) conclusions break down in a general model of the long run in which productivity growth is endogenous – aggregate demand is driving everything again, short and long.

Die Trägheit von Zinssätzen und Kreditrationierung in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland / The Sluggishness of Interest Rates and Credit Rationing in the Federal Republic of Germany

1995 ◽  
Vol 214 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Winker
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Republic ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Credit Rationing ◽  
Price Setting ◽  
Federal Republic Of Germany ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Marginal Price

SummaryCredit rationing is often considered as the outcome of asymmetric information between lenders and borrowers. The paper combines this aspect with a marginal price setting behavior of the banks. The resulting model describes adjustment processes between interbank rates, interest rates on deposits and on loans. Due to the non stationarity of the data, the model is estimated in error correction form allowing for distinguishing between short run dynamics and long run equilibrium. The derived hypothesis of a delayed adjustment of loan rates to changes in the interbank rates cannot be rejected with monthly data covering the sample 1975 to 1989.

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