Response to “Comments on ‘Failure Probability of Axially Cracked Steam Generator Tubes: A Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Model’”

Stress corrosion cracking (SCC) has been observed at some piping joints made by Austenitic stainless steel in BWR plants. In JAEA, we have been developing probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) analysis methods for aged piping based on latest aging knowledge and an analytical code, PASCAL-SP. PASCAL-SP evaluates the failure probability of piping at aged welded joints under SCC by a Monte Carlo method. We proposes a simplified probabilistic model which can be applied to the failure probability analysis based on PFM for welded joint of piping considering the uncertainty of welding residual stress. And the probabilistic evaluation model is introduced to PASCAL-SP. A parametric PFM analysis concerning uncertainties of residual stress distribution using PASCAL-SP was performed. The PFM analysis showed that the uncertainties of residual stress distribution largely influenced break probability. The break probability increased with increasing the uncertainties of residual stress.

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Accounting for Constraint in Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Analysis of Welds in Floating Production, Storage and Off-Loading (FPSO) Vessels

Volume 3: Materials Technology; Ocean Engineering; Polar and Arctic Sciences and Technology; Workshops ◽

10.1115/omae2003-37440 ◽

2003 ◽

Author(s):

Jens P. Tronskar

Keyword(s):

Residual Stress ◽

Stress Distribution ◽

Fracture Mechanics ◽

Crack Growth ◽

North Sea ◽

Failure Probability ◽

Crack Tip ◽

Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics ◽

Crack Tip Constraint

Revision 4 of the British Energy R6 document: “Assessment of the integrity of structures containing defects” provides methods to allow for loss of crack tip constraint for shallow weld flaws. The document also provides methods to estimate upper-bound values of the through thickness residual stress distribution for a range of common weld joint configurations. The present paper presents results of analyses where approaches to modify the R6 Option 1 or 2 failure assessment diagrams (FADs) for loss of crack tip constraint pertaining to primary and non-uniform residual stress have been applied. The modified FAD were formulated for probabilistic fracture mechanics analyses of semi-elliptical surface cracks located at transverse deck welds of Floating Production, Storage and Off-loading (FPSO) vessels designed to operate in the North Sea. The objective was to study the influence on the failure probability of modifying the FAD for constraint and allowing for non-uniform residual stress. Another objective was to study the influence of constraint correction on the combined fatigue and fracture failure probability for the vessels subjected to wave loading. Material and weld tensile properties and fracture toughness distributions for input to the probabilistic fracture mechanics analyses were obtained from testing of welded panels prepared using welding procedures for actual FPSO fabrication. The loading conditions were derived based on North Sea wave data pertaining to the offshore field where the FPSO is operating. The stresses were obtained from global FE analysis and fitted Weibull long-term and extreme value distributions. The results of the analyses demonstrate clearly the importance of correcting for crack tip constraint pertaining to both primary and secondary stress and to allow for non-uniform residual stress for shallow surface flaws of known crack heights. However, in combination with fatigue crack growth the effects become less prominent as the failure probability is governed by the uncertainty in the parameters of the crack growth relationship and the long-term stress distribution.

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Failure Probability Analysis of Aged Piping Using Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Methodology Considering Seismic Loads

Volume 6B: Materials and Fabrication ◽

10.1115/pvp2016-63801 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Yoshihito Yamaguchi ◽

Jinya Katsuyama ◽

Yinsheng Li

Keyword(s):

Fracture Mechanics ◽

Failure Probability ◽

Power Plants ◽

Fragility Curves ◽

Safety Margin ◽

Probability Analysis ◽

Seismic Loads ◽

Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics ◽

Age Related ◽

Piping Systems

Several nuclear power plants in Japan have been operating for more than 30 years and cracks due to age-related degradations have been detected in some piping systems during in-service inspections. Furthermore, several of them have experienced severe earthquakes in recent years. Therefore, failure probability analysis and fragility evaluation for piping systems, taking both age-related degradations and seismic loads into consideration, has become increasingly important for the structural integrity evaluation and the seismic probabilistic risk assessment. Probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) is recognized as a rational methodology for failure probability analysis and fragility evaluation of aged piping, because it can take the scatters and uncertainties of influence parameters into account. In our Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), a PFM analysis code PASCAL-SP was developed for aged piping considering age-related degradations. In this study, we improved PASCAL-SP for the fragility evaluation taking both age-related degradations and seismic loads into account. The details of the improvement of PASCAL-SP are explained and some example analysis results of failure probabilities, fragility curves and a preliminary investigation on seismic safety margin are presented in this paper.

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