Best-Estimate Model Calibration and Prediction through Experimental Data Assimilation—I: Mathematical Framework

2010 ◽  
Vol 165 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan G. Cacuci ◽  
Mihaela Ionescu-Bujor
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Model Calibration ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
Best Estimate

scholarly journals Best-Estimate for System Codes (BeSYC): A New Software to Perform Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty Analyses with Thermal-Hydraulic and Safety System Codes for Both Fusion and Fission Scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 311
Author(s):  
Bruno Gonfiotti ◽  
Michela Angelucci ◽  
Bradut-Eugen Ghidersa ◽  
Xue Zhou Jin ◽  
Mihaela Ionescu-Bujor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Graphical User Interface ◽  
Model Calibration ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
Specific System ◽  
Best Estimate ◽  
Uncertainty Analyses ◽  
Institute Of Technology ◽  
Fission Reactors ◽  
Karlsruhe Institute

The development and the validation of old and new software in relevant DEMO reactor conditions have been exploited in the latest years within the EUROfusion Consortium. The aim was to use—if possible—the software already validated for fission reactors and to fill the gaps with new ad-hoc software. As contribution to this effort, the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) developed and tested a novel software to apply the Best-Estimate Model Calibration and Prediction through Experimental Data Assimilation methodology to the system codes RELAP5-3D, MELCOR 1.8.6, and MELCOR 2.2. This software is called Best-estimate for SYstem Codes (BeSYC), and it is developed as a MATLAB App. The application is in charge of applying the mathematical framework of the methodology, writing and executing the code runs required by the methodology, and printing the obtained results. The main goal of BeSYC is to wrap up the methodology in a software suitable to be used by any user through a simple graphical user interface. Albeit developed in the fusion research context, BeSYC can be applied to any reactor/scenario type supported by the specific system code. The goals of BeSYC, the mathematical framework, the main characteristics, and the performed verification and validation activities are described in this paper.

Microemulsion Phase Behavior Observations, Thermodynamic Essentials, Mathematical Simulation

1981 ◽  
Vol 21 (06) ◽  
pp. 747-762 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karl E. Bennett ◽  
Craig H.K. Phelps ◽  
H. Ted Davis ◽  
L.E. Scriven
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Phase Behavior ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
Alkyl Aryl Sulfonate ◽  
Phase Volume ◽  
Displacement Efficiency ◽  
Alkyl Aryl ◽  
Theoretical Understanding ◽  
Tie Lines

Abstract The phase behavior of microemulsions of brine, hydrocarbon, alcohol, and a pure alkyl aryl sulfonate-sodium 4-(1-heptylnonyl) benzenesulfonate (SHBS or Texas 1) was investigated as a function of the concentration of salt (NaCl, MgCl2, or CaCl2), the hydrocarbon (n-alkanes, octane to hexadecane), the alcohol (butyl and amyl isomers), the concentration of surfactant, and temperature. The phase behavior mimics that of similar systems with the commercial surfactant Witco TRS 10–80. The phase volumes follow published trends, though with exceptions.A mathematical framework is presented for modeling phase behavior in a manner consistent with the thermodynamically required critical tie lines and plait point progressions from the critical endpoints. Hand's scheme for modeling binodals and Pope and Nelson's approach to modeling the evolution of the surfactant-rich third phase are extended to satisfy these requirements.An examination of model-generated progressions of ternary phase diagrams enhances understanding of the experimental data and reveals correlations of relative phase volumes (volume uptakes) with location of the mixing point (overall composition) relative to the height of the three-phase region and the locations of the critical tie lines (critical endpoints and conjugate phases). The correlations account, on thermodynamic grounds, for cases in which the surfactant is present in more than one phase or the phase volumes change discontinuously, both cases being observed in the experimental study. Introduction The phase behavior of a surfactant-based micellar formulation is one of the major factors governing the displacement efficiency of any chemical flooding process employing that formulation. Knowledge of phase behavior is, thus, important for the interpretation of laboratory core floods, the design of flooding processes, and the evaluation of field tests. Phase behavior is connected intimately with other determinants of the flooding process, such as interfacial tension and viscosity. Since the number of equilibrium phases and their volumes and appearances are easier to measure and observe than phase compositions, viscosities, and interfacial tensions, there is great interest in understanding the phase-volume/phase-property relationships. Commercial surfactants, such as Witco TRS 10-80, are sulfonates of crude or partially refined oil. While they seem to be the most economically practicable surfactants for micellar flooding, their behavior, particularly with crude oils and reservoir brines, can be difficult to interpret, the phases varying with time and from batch to batch. Phase behavior studies with a small number of components, in conjunction with a theoretical understanding of phase behavior progressions, can aid in understanding more complex behavior. In particular, one can begin to appreciate which seemingly abnormal experimental observations (e.g., surfactant present in more than one phase or a discontinuity in phase volume trends) are merely features of certain regions of any phase diagram and which are peculiar to the specific crude oil or commercial surfactant used in the study.We report here experimental studies of the phase behavior of microemulsions of a pure sulfonate surfactant (Texas 1), a single normal alkane hydrocarbon, a simple brine, and a small amount of a suitable alcohol as cosurfactant or cosolvent. The controlled variables are hydrocarbon chain length, alcohol, salinity, salt type (NaCl, MgCl2, or CaCl2), surfactant purity, surfactant concentration, and temperature. Many of these experimental data were presented earlier. SPEJ P. 747^

Information content of data with respect to models

1983 ◽  
Vol 245 (5) ◽  
pp. R620-R623
Author(s):  
M. Berman ◽  
P. Van Eerdewegh
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
Information Content ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
Statistical Measures ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Collection Strategies

A measure is proposed for the information content of data with respect to models. A model, defined by a set of parameter values in a mathematical framework, is considered a point in a hyperspace. The proposed measure expresses the information content of experimental data as the contribution they make, in units of information bits, in defining a model to within a desired region of the hyperspace. This measure is then normalized to conventional statistical measures of uncertainty. It is shown how the measure can be used to estimate the information of newly planned experiments and help in decisions on data collection strategies.

scholarly journals The predictability of the "Voyager" accident

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 533-537 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Bertotti ◽  
L. Cavaleri
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Measured Data ◽  
Balearic Islands ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Best Estimate ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Local Wave ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Wave Conditions

Abstract. On 14 February 2005 a severe mistral storm caused substantial damage to the passenger cruiser "Voyager" between Balearic Islands and Sardinia. The storm had been well predicted. However, the ship was hit by one or more, apparently unexpected, large waves. Our aim was to understand if this was a freak event or it was within the expectable probability. At this aim we use our best estimate of the local wave conditions, obtained combining modelling and measured data. Starting from these we derive the probability of large waves, considering both linear and non-linear cases. Notwithstanding a correction towards the worse of the, otherwise inconsistent, available reports, on the basis of the data at disposal we conclude that, given the local conditions, the event was within the range of the potentially expectable wave heights. This turns out to be even more the case on the basis of recent results based on theoretical and experimental data.

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