scholarly journals IMPACT OF UNCERTAINTY ON EUROPEAN MARKET INDICES QUANTILE REGRESSION APPROACH

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 57-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mária Bohdalová ◽  
Michal Greguš
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
European Market ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Asymmetric Dependence ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Regression Approach ◽  
The Impact

Contemporary Europe needs to make important collective economic and foreign-policy decisions. Many authors argue that uncertainty has influence on the markets’ behavior. Therefore, we have decided to analyze the impact of the uncertainty on the returns and the volatility of two major European market indices Germany (DAX) and the U.K. (FTSE 100) across selected quantiles. We present results for the time-period from January 3, 2000 to December 30, 2016. As influential factors, we consider the Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Europe, the United Kingdom, Brexit and low prices of the crude oil. In our paper, we have found an asymmetric dependence of the analyzed market indices on the selected factors. EPU Brexit had no or weak impact on the analyzed data. Our conclusion shows to investors how sensitive German and English markets are to the uncertainty in Europe.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Induced Economic Uncertainty: A Comparison between the United Kingdom and the United States

Ekonomika ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 99 (2) ◽  
pp. 104-115
Author(s):  
Ugur Korkut Pata
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Significant Finding ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic policy uncertainty in the US and the UK. The impact of the increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths in the country and the increase in the number of cases and deaths outside the country may vary. To examine this, the study employs the bootstrap ARDL cointegration approach from March 8, 2020 to May 24, 2020. According to the bootstrap ARDL results, a long-run equilibrium relationship is confirmed for five out of the ten models. The long-term coefficients obtained from the ARDL models suggest that an increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths outside of the UK and the US has a significant effect on economic policy uncertainty. The US is more affected by the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases. The UK, on the other hand, is more negatively affected by the increase in the number of COVID-19 deaths outside the country than the increase in the number of cases. Moreover, another significant finding from the study demonstrates that COVID-19 is a factor of great uncertainty for both countries in the short-term.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Induced Economic Uncertainty: A Comparison between the United Kingdom and the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ugur Korkut Pata
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic policy uncertainty in the US and the UK. The impact of the increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths in the country, and the increase in the number of cases and deaths outside the country may vary. To examine this, the study employs bootstrap ARDL cointegration approach from March 8, 2020 to May 24, 2020. According to the bootstrap ARDL results, a long-run equilibrium relationship is confirmed for five out of the 10 models. The long-term coefficients obtained from the ARDL models suggest that an increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths outside of the UK and the US has a significant effect on economic policy uncertainty. The US is more affected by the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases. The UK, on the other hand, is more negatively affected by the increase in the number of COVID-19 deaths outside the country than the increase in the number of cases. Moreover, another important finding from the study demonstrates that COVID-19 is a factor of great uncertainty for both countries in the short-term.

scholarly journals The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Financial Stress in the United Kingdom on Bilateral Exports of Goods: Pre-Brexit Evidence

2021 ◽  
pp. 27-49
Author(s):  
Dejan Romih ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
Financial Stress ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Systemic Stress ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Bilateral Exports ◽  
The Impact

Brexit was a wake-up call for the UK and the EU. There is a growing body of evidence that the referendum results contributed to an increase in economic policy uncertainty and financial stress (including systemic stress) in the UK. In this chapter, I present the findings of a panel study designed to estimate the impact of economic policy uncertainty and financial stress in the UK on bilateral exports of goods. Using the panel data gravity model of international trade, I found that economic policy uncertainty in the UK negatively affects bilateral exports of goods, which is consistent with my expectations. The results for financial and systemic stress are not statistically significant.

scholarly journals Do Economic Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk Lead to Environmental Degradation? Evidence from Emerging Economies

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 5866
Author(s):  
Muhammad Khalid Anser ◽  
Qasim Raza Syed ◽  
Hooi Hooi Lean ◽  
Andrew Adewale Alola ◽  
Munir Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Ecological Footprint ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

Since the turn of twenty first century, economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR) have escalated across the globe. These two factors have both economic and environmental impacts. However, there exists dearth of literature that expounds the impact of EPU and GPR on environmental degradation. This study, therefore, probes the impact of EPU and GPR on ecological footprint (proxy for environmental degradation) in selected emerging economies. Cross-sectional dependence test, slope heterogeneity test, Westerlund co-integration test, fully modified least ordinary least square estimator, dynamic OLS estimator, and augmented mean group estimator are employed to conduct the robust analyses. The findings reveal that EPU and non-renewable energy consumption escalate ecological footprint, whereas GPR and renewable energy plunge ecological footprint. In addition, findings from the causality test reveal both uni-directional and bi-directional causality between a few variables. Based on the findings, we deduce several policy implications to accomplish the sustainable development goals in emerging economies.

Economic Policy Uncertainty in the Euro Area: Cross-Country Spillovers and Macroeconomic Impact

2019 ◽  
Vol 239 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 957-981 ◽  
Author(s):  
Volker Clausen ◽  
Alexander Schlösser ◽  
Christopher Thiem
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Financial Firms ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
Variance Decompositions ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Uncertainty Indices ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper analyzes spillovers and the macroeconomic effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in Europe over the last two decades. Drawing on the newspaper-based uncertainty indices by Baker et al. (2016, Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. Quarterly Journal of Economics 131 (4): 1593–1636), we first use the Diebold and Yilmaz (2014 On the Network Topology of Variance Decompositions: Measuring the Connectedness of Financial Firms. Journal of Econometrics 182 (1): 119–134) connectedness index methodology to investigate the static and dynamic patterns of EPU spillovers. We find substantial spillovers across the European countries. Over time, Germany in particular has become increasingly connected to the other economies. In a second step, we investigate the economic impact of EPU shocks using a structural VAR. The detrimental influence of uncertainty turns out to be regime-dependent. We identify a pre-crisis, a crisis and a post-crisis regime, and the effect is only significant in the former two. Finally, the impact of EPU shocks is also heterogeneous across the monetary union’s most important members.

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