scholarly journals Climate Change Projection In Kashmir Valley (J&K)

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 107-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saqib Parvaze ◽  
Latief Ahmad ◽  
Sabah Parvaze ◽  
Raihana Kanth
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Kashmir Valley ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Period Increase

The decision support tool viz. SDSM (Statistical Downscaling Model) was used to downscale climate data of future years for Kashmir province of Jammu & Kashmir state. The 21st century projected data for the A1B scenario was adjusted by using observed climatic data recorded during the period 1985-2015 for the region. The data from the same period was taken as the baseline for the analysis. This data was thereon analyzed for monthly, seasonal, cropping season and annual periods to enumerate the variation of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation in Kashmir valley of Jammu & Kashmir state in the 21st century. The modelled data obtained exhibited no significant change in maximum and minimum temperature for the period 2021-2050 but for the same period increase in annual precipitation was exhibited. For the period2051-2100, decreasing trend of annual temperature was exhibited whereas for annual precipitation, an increasing trend was exhibited.

scholarly journals Relationship between mean annual temperatures and precipitation sums in Montenegro between 1951-1980 and 1981-2010 periods

2018 ◽  
Vol 98 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dragan Buric ◽  
Vladan Ducic ◽  
Jovan Mihajlovic
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Temperature Fluctuations ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

In the second half of the 20th and by the beginning of the 21st century the area of Montenegro was dominated by positive air temperature fluctuations and negative precipitation sums. This paper analyses a 60-year period (1951-2010), with the aim to determine air temperature and precipitation deviation between the two 30-year periods: 1951-1980 and 1981-2010. Calculations of mean, mean maximum and mean minimum temperature have been done, as well as annual values of precipitation sums. All three temperature parameters, particularly maximum values, show that the 1981-2010 period was significantly warmer in relation to previous three decades. Significant changes in mean annual precipitation sums between the two observation periods have been recorded on the coast and, locally, in the western part of the country. The results also showed that there was a significant increase in positive deviations of mean maximum temperature in most parts of Montenegro during the 1981-2010 period in relation to the 1951-1980 period, while changes of this type in other observation parameters were mostly minor.

scholarly journals Development of random forest model as decision support tool in water resources management of Ogun headwater catchments

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
O. O. Aiyelokun ◽  
O. A. Agbede
Keyword(s):  
Random Forest ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Computational Technique ◽  
Percentage Increase ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Headwater Catchments ◽  
Minimal Depth

AbstractWater resources cannot be effectively managed unless potential evapotranspiration is determined with high accuracy at headwater catchments. The study presents the most suitable feature combinations for building a reliable potential evapotranspiration (PET) model in the headwater catchments of Ogun River Basin, Southwest Nigeria. Using rainfall (R), wind speed (U2), sunshine hour (S), relative humidity (Rh), minimum temperature (Tmin) and maximum temperature (Tmax) as input features, a Random Forest (RF) model was developed to predict PET. Although the model yielded satisfactory results, it was subjected to the minimal depth and percentage increase in mean square error (%IncMSE). This was done to reduce the input features and to increase model accuracy. Thereafter various combinations of important input features were examined in order to establish the best combinations required to yield optimum results. The study revealed that although Tmax (%IncMSE of 652.09, p value < 0.05) and Rh (%IncMSE of 254.36, p value < 0.05) were the most important predictors of PET, a more reliable RF model was achieved when S and U2 were combined with them. Consequently, this study presents RF with a combination of four parameters (Tmax, Rh, S and U2) as an excellent computational technique for the prediction of PET in headwater catchments.

scholarly journals Temperature Change and Its Elevation Dependency in the Source Region of the Yangtze River and Yellow River

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chongyi E ◽  
Hongchang Hu ◽  
Hong Xie ◽  
Yongjuan Sun
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Change ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
The Yangtze River ◽  
Extreme Minimum Temperature ◽  
The Mean

The study of temperature change and its elevation dependency in the source region of the Yangtze River and Yellow River have been insufficient owing to the lack of adequate observation stations and long-term climatic data. In this study five temperature indices of 32 stations from 1961 to 2007 in and near the source region are used. The 32 stations all have experienced significant warming; the warming amplitudes are higher than the mean warming amplitude of the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau. The warming amplitudes and the numbers of stations showing significant warming trends in mean minimum temperature and extreme minimum temperature are higher than that of the mean maximum temperature and extreme maximum temperature. The elevation dependency of climatic warming and the amount of significant warming stations are not obvious; the influence of human activity and urbanization may be higher. The warming amplitudes of 26 stations above 3000 m tend to be uniform, and there is no significant law at 6 stations below 3000 m. On the contrary, the ratio of stations showing significant warming in minimum temperature above 4000 m is far less than that of the stations below 4000 m.

First Velarifictorus (Orthoptera: Gryllidae, Gryllinae) cricket described from Borneo (Southeast Asia) and notes on a co-occurring congener

Zootaxa ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 4282 (2) ◽  
pp. 374 ◽  
Author(s):  
MING KAI TAN ◽  
SIGFRID INGRISCH ◽  
RODZAY BIN HAJI ABDUL WAHAB
Keyword(s):  
New Species ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Locality Record ◽  
Widespread Species ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Maxent Modelling ◽  
A New Species

Based on newly collected specimens from Brunei, a new species of Velarifictorus Randell, 1964 is described: Velarifictorus temburongensis sp. nov. This represents the first species of the genus Velarifictorus to be described from Borneo. Unexpectedly, the more widespread species Velarifictorus aspersus aspersus (Walker, 1869) was found together with the new species in the same locality, representing a new locality record for V. aspersus in Brunei. We used MaxEnt modelling to test if it was likely that this species occurs in Ulu Temburong and Borneo based on a set of bioclimatic predictors. While MaxEnt modelling showed that V. aspersus can occur in Borneo, it did not convincingly predict its occurrence in Ulu Temburong where it was found. Based on the model, maximum temperature of warmest month, minimum temperature of coldest month and annual precipitation are important bioclimatic variables to predict the distribution. 

scholarly journals Vertical Differences in the Long-Term Trends and Breakpoints of NDVI and Climate Factors in Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 4707
Author(s):  
Hui Ping Tsai ◽  
Geng-Gui Wang ◽  
Zhong-Han Zhuang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
Long Term Trends

This study explored the long-term trends and breakpoints of vegetation, rainfall, and temperature in Taiwan from overall and regional perspectives in terms of vertical differences from 1982 to 2012. With time-series Advanced Very-High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data and Taiwan Climate Change Estimate and Information Platform (TCCIP) gridded monthly climatic data, their vertical dynamics were investigated by employing the Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST) algorithm, Pearson’s correlation analysis, and the Durbin–Watson test. The vertical differences in NDVI values presented three breakpoints and a consistent trend from positive (1982 to 1989) to negative at varied rates, and then gradually increased after 2000. In addition, a positive rainfall trend was discovered. Average and maximum temperature had similar increasing trends, while minimum temperature showed variations, especially at higher altitudes. In terms of regional variations, the vegetation growth was stable in the north but worse in the central region. Higher elevations revealed larger variations in the NDVI and temperature datasets. NDVI, along with average and minimum temperature, showed their largest changes earlier in higher altitude areas. Specifically, the increasing minimum temperature direction was more prominent in the mid-to-high-altitude areas in the eastern and central regions. Seasonal variations were observed for each region. The difference between the dry and wet seasons is becoming larger, with the smallest difference in the northern region and the largest difference in the southern region. Taiwan’s NDVI and climatic factors have a significant negative correlation (p < 0.05), but the maximum and minimum temperatures have significant positive effects at low altitudes below 500 m. The northern and central regions reveal similar responses, while the south and east display different feedbacks. The results illuminate climate change evidence from assessment of the long-term dynamics of vegetation and climatic factors, providing valuable references for establishing correspondent climate-adaptive strategies in Taiwan.

Web-LCCA: an acquisition decision support tool for the 21st Century

2001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto B. Calvo ◽  
Gregory J. Gibson ◽  
Stephen J. Alter
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Support Tool

scholarly journals Projected changes in temperature and rainfall during 21st century simulated by CSIRO-Mk-3-6-0 model under RCP based scenarios in Punjab

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 72 (3) ◽  
pp. 649-660
Author(s):  
JATINDER KAUR ◽  
PRABHJYOT KAUR ◽  
SAMANPREET KAUR
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climatic Parameters ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Projected Changes

A study was conducted to assess the projected changes in climatic parameters during 21st century in Punjab state. The CSIRO-Mk 3-6-0 model simulated data was downscaled from the website http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/ for seven locations under four RCP scenarios. The two future periods,               i.e., mid-century (MC: 2020-2049) and end-century (EC: 2066-2095) were assessed on annual and seasonal (kharif and rabi) basis. During mid-century the annual, kharif and rabi seasons maximum temperature is projected to increase from baseline period between 0 to 1.5 °C, 0.3 to 1.5 °C and 0 to 1.6 °C, respectively; minimum temperature to increase from baseline period between 1.1 to 3.1 °C, 0.1 to 4.8 °C and 0.3 to 1.8 °C, respectively but the rainfall to decrease from baseline period between 33 to 554 mm, 20 to 443 mm and 20 to 110 mm, respectively. During the end-century the annual, kharif and rabi seasons maximum temperature is projected to increase from baseline period between 0.8 to 4.4°C, 0.8 to 4.3 °C and 0.6 to 4.9 °C, respectively; minimum temperature to increase from baseline period between 0.4 to   6.6 °C, 0.5 to 6.3 °C and 0.0 to 5.5 °C, respectively but the rainfall to decrease from baseline period between 3 to  610 mm, 14 to 506 mm and 17 to 107 mm, respectively. Rainfall was projected to increase at Abohar (11-41 mm) while it may decline at Amritsar (49-128 mm), Ballowal Saunkhri (501-554 mm), Ludhiana (131-152 mm), Patiala (148-187), Bathinda (49-82 mm) and Faridkot (33-67 mm).

scholarly journals Improving Princeton Forcing Dataset over Iran Using the Delta-Ratio Method

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 630
Author(s):  
Qinghuan Zhang ◽  
Qiuhong Tang ◽  
Xingcai Liu ◽  
Seyed-Mohammad Hosseini-Moghari ◽  
Pedram Attarod
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Ratio Method ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climatic Zones ◽  
Humid Zone ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Skill Scores

In this study, we corrected the bias in the Princeton forcing dataset, i.e., precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures, and wind speed, by adjusting its long-term mean monthly climatology to match observations for the period 1988–2012 using the delta-ratio method. To this end, we collected meteorological data from 97 stations covering the domain of Iran. We divided Iran into three climatic zones based on the De Martonne classification, i.e., Arid, Humid, and Per-Humid zones, and then applied the delta-ratio method for each climatic zone separately to adjust the bias. After adjustment, the new datasets were compared to the observations in 1958–1987. Results based on four skill scores, including the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and R2, indicate that the adjustment greatly improved the quality of the gridded dataset, specifically, precipitation, maximum temperature, and wind speed. For example, NSE for annual precipitation during the validation time period increased from −0.03 to 0.72, PBIAS reduced from 29.2% to 6.6%, RMSE decreased by 182.44 mm, and R2 increased from 0.06 to 0.75. Assessing the results in different climatic zones of Iran reveals that precipitation improved more significantly in the Per-Humid zone followed by the Humid zone, while maximum temperature improved better in the Arid areas. For wind speed, the values improved comparably in the three climate zones. However, the delta values for monthly minimum temperature calculated during the adjustment time period cannot be applied in the validation time period, due to the fact that the Princeton climate data cannot follow the behavior of minimum temperature during the validation phase. In short, we showed that a simple bias adjustment approach, along with minimum observed station data, can significantly improve the performance of global gridded datasets.

TRENDS AND VARIABILITIES IN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE DURING 2006–2100 IN THE WEYB RIVER BASIN, ETHIOPIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 01 (01) ◽  
pp. 1950004
Author(s):  
ABDULKERIM BEDEWI SERUR
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variations ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Earth System Models

This study investigates on variabilities in annual precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature within the Weyb River basin during 2006–2100 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6/4.5/8.5 scenarios based on predictions of three Earth System Models (GFDL-ESM2M, CanESM2, and GFDL-ESM2G). Our results showed that precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature would rise in the near term (2011–2040), the medium term (2041–2070), and the long term (2071–2100) as compared to the baseline scenario (1981–2005). The larger increments are predicted by GFDL-ESM2M than those by GFDL-ESM2G and CanESM2 in all three time periods. The variabilities of precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature are predicted to be higher under RCP8.5 scenario than those under RCP4.5 or RCP2.6 scenario in simulations of all three ESMs. Results also revealed that there would be significant spatiotemporal variations in precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature within the Weyb River basin, which implies that the basin would possibly experience droughts or floods more frequently during the 21st century.

scholarly journals Analysis of Climate Change and Sustainable Development in Peru and Its Departments during the Year 2006 - 2018

2021 ◽  
pp. 31-46
Author(s):  
Vladimir Villarroel Diaz ◽  
Ronald Révolo Acevedo ◽  
Uriel Quispe Quezada ◽  
Elvis Carmen Delgadillo ◽  
Joel Colonio Llacua ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
P Value ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
General Index

Aims: Analyze and relate the general index of climate change and sustainable development of Peru and its departments during the year 2006 - 2018. Study Design:  The research is not intended to deliberately manipulate the variables, therefore, it is non-experimental; is descriptive, correlational and longitudinal. Place and Duration of Study: The research project was carried out in the Faculty of Forestry and Environmental Sciences of the UNCP, likewise the collection of information data was carried out during 2020 and 2021, due to the Covid19 pandemic. Methodology: Two economic data, four social data and five environmental data were selected, in addition climatic data of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature of the 24 departments of Peru were collected during the years 2006 - 2018; To estimate the climatic and sustainable indices, the Prescott-Allen methodology was applied, the interpretation and assessment scale (climate change and sustainable development) was carried out using the barometric analysis of McCarthy. Five regression models were applied [dependent variable GISD; independent variable IGCC], hypothesis testing was performed using Karl Pearson's r coefficient and p-value at 0.05. Results: It is stated that Peru presents an economic sustainable index [EcSI] of 0.066 low, social sustainability [SoSI]: 0.225 medium, environmental sustainability [EnSI]: 0.282 high and general index of sustainable development [GISD] is 0.572 medium. In itself the climate index of precipitation is [CPrI]: 0.079 weak, the climate index maximum temperature [CTxI]: 0.251 severe, climate index minimum temperature [CTnI]: 0.138 weak and the general index of climate change [GICC] is 0.468 moderate. Two appropriate regression models [linear and exponential] were determined to estimate the GISD as a function of the GICC, CPrI, CTxI and CTnI. Conclusion: It was found that during the year 2006 to 2018 Peru presented a low economic, social medium, high environmental situation and therefore its sustainable development is in a medium situation; while precipitation is weak, severe maximum temperature, weak minimum temperature, and therefore, climate change has a moderate impact. Likewise, it is stated that there are two linear and exponential regression models to estimate the GISD based on the GICC, CPrI, CTxI and CTnI. It is recommended to collect more climatic data and economic indicators to be able to differentiate the economic and climatic situation that Peru and departments represent during its thirteen years of development.

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