scholarly journals Using Forecast and Observed Weather Data to Assess Performance of Forecast Products in Identifying Heat Waves and Estimating Heat Wave Effects on Mortality

2014 ◽  
Vol 122 (9) ◽  
pp. 912-918 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Zhang ◽  
Yeh-Hsin Chen ◽  
Joel D. Schwartz ◽  
Richard B. Rood ◽  
Marie S. O’Neill
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Wave Effects

scholarly journals Heat wave effects on the behavior and life-history traits of sedentary antlions

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 1326-1333 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Miler ◽  
Daniel Stec ◽  
Marcin Czarnoleski
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
The Body ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Closely Related Species ◽  
Hunting Activity ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Wave Effects ◽  
Microhabitat Preferences

Abstract Research on the behavioral responses of animals to extreme weather events, such as heat wave, is lacking even though their frequency and intensity in nature are increasing. Here, we investigated the behavioral response to a simulated heat wave in two species of antlions (Neuroptera: Myrmeleontidae). These insects spend the majority of their lives as larvae and live in sandy areas suitable for a trap-building hunting strategy. We used larvae of Myrmeleon bore and Euroleon nostras, which are characterized by different microhabitat preferences—sunlit in the case of M. bore and shaded in the case of E. nostras. Larvae were exposed to fluctuating temperatures (40 °C for 10 h daily and 25 °C for the remaining time) or a constant temperature (25 °C) for an entire week. We found increased mortality of larvae under heat. We detected a reduction in the hunting activity of larvae under heat, which corresponded to changes in the body mass of individuals. Furthermore, we found long-term consequences of the simulated heat wave, as it prolonged the time larvae needed to molt. These effects were pronounced in the case of E. nostras but did not occur or were less pronounced in the case of M. bore, suggesting that microhabitat-specific selective pressures dictate how well antlions handle heat waves. We, thus, present results demonstrating the connection between behavior and the subsequent changes to fitness-relevant traits in the context of a simulated heat wave. These results illustrate how even closely related species may react differently to the same event.

Heat wave effects on biomass and vegetative growth of macrophytes after long-term adaptation to different temperatures: a mesocosm study

2015 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 265-274 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y Cao ◽  
ÉM Neif ◽  
W Li ◽  
J Coppens ◽  
N Filiz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Vegetative Growth ◽  
Wave Effects ◽  
Different Temperatures

Abstract P069: Heat, Heat Waves and Hospital Admissions in Indianapolis, Indiana

Circulation ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 135 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Wang
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Heart Failure ◽  
Relative Risk ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Apparent Temperature ◽  
The Impact

Background: The association between heat and hospital admissions is well studied, but in Indiana where the regulatory agencies cites lack of evidence for global climate change, local evidence of such an association is critical for Indiana to mitigate the impact of increasing heat. Methods: Using a distributed-lag non-linear model, we studied the effects of moderate (31.7 °C or 90 th percentile of daily mean apparent temperature (AT)), severe (33.5 °C or 95 th percentile of daily mean apparent temperature (AT)) and extreme (36.4 °C or 99 th percentile of AT) heat on hospital admissions (June-August 2007-2012) for cardiovascular (myocardial infarction, myocardial infarction, heart failure) and heat-related diseases in Indianapolis, Indiana located in Marion County. We also examined the added effects of moderate heat waves (AT above the 90 th percentile lasting 2-6 days), severe heat waves (AT above the 95 th percentile lasting 2-6 days) and extreme heat waves (AT above the 99 th percentile lasting 2-6 days). In sensitivity analysis, we tested robustness of our results to 1) different temperature and lag structures and 2) temperature metrics (daily min, max and diurnal temperature range). Results: The relative risks of moderate heat, relative to 29.2°C (75 th percentile of AT), on admissions for cardiovascular disease (CVD), myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure (HF), and heat-related diseases (HD) were 0.98 (0.67, 1.44), 6.28 (1.48, 26.6), 1.38 (0.81, 2.36) and 1.73 (0.58, 5.11). The relative risk of severe heat on admissions for CVD, MI, HF, and HD were 0.93 (0.60, 1.43), 4.46 (0.85, 23.4), 1.30 (0.72, 2.34) and 2.14 (0.43, 10.7). The relative risk of extreme heat were 0.79 (0.26, 2.39), 0.11 (0.087, 1.32), 0.68 (0.18, 2.61), and 0.32 (0.005, 19.5). We also observed statistically significant added effects of moderate heat waves lasting 4 or 6 days on hospital admission for MI and HD and extreme heat waves lasting 4 days on hospital admissions for HD. Results were strengthened for people older than 65. Conclusions: Moderate heat wave lasting 4-6 days were associated with increased hospital admissions for MI and HD diseases and extreme heat wave lasting 4 days were associated with increased admissions for HD.

Heat waves in Berlin and Potsdam, Germany – Long‐term trends and comparison of heat wave definitions from 1893 to 2017

2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 2422-2437 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Fenner ◽  
Achim Holtmann ◽  
Alexander Krug ◽  
Dieter Scherer
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Long Term Trends

scholarly journals Dewpoint Temperature Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (6) ◽  
pp. 1757-1769 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. B. Shank ◽  
G. Hoogenboom ◽  
R. W. McClendon
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Temperature Prediction ◽  
Related Data ◽  
Dewpoint Temperature ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract Dewpoint temperature, the temperature at which water vapor in the air will condense into liquid, can be useful in estimating frost, fog, snow, dew, evapotranspiration, and other meteorological variables. The goal of this study was to use artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict dewpoint temperature from 1 to 12 h ahead using prior weather data as inputs. This study explores using three-layer backpropagation ANNs and weather data combined for three years from 20 locations in Georgia, United States, to develop general models for dewpoint temperature prediction anywhere within Georgia. Specific objectives included the selection of the important weather-related inputs, the setting of ANN parameters, and the selection of the duration of prior input data. An iterative search found that, in addition to dewpoint temperature, important weather-related ANN inputs included relative humidity, solar radiation, air temperature, wind speed, and vapor pressure. Experiments also showed that the best models included 60 nodes in the ANN hidden layer, a ±0.15 initial range for the ANN weights, a 0.35 ANN learning rate, and a duration of prior weather-related data used as inputs ranging from 6 to 30 h based on the lead time. The evaluation of the final models with weather data from 20 separate locations and for a different year showed that the 1-, 4-, 8-, and 12-h predictions had mean absolute errors (MAEs) of 0.550°, 1.234°, 1.799°, and 2.280°C, respectively. These final models predicted dewpoint temperature adequately using previously unseen weather data, including difficult freeze and heat stress extremes. These predictions are useful for decisions in agriculture because dewpoint temperature along with air temperature affects the intensity of freezes and heat waves, which can damage crops, equipment, and structures and can cause injury or death to animals and humans.

scholarly journals Could aerosol emissions be used for regional heat wave mitigation?

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 23793-23828
Author(s):  
D. N. Bernstein ◽  
J. D. Neelin ◽  
Q. B. Li ◽  
D. Chen
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Middle Part ◽  
Emission Rates ◽  
Sulfate Aerosols ◽  
Geographical Differences ◽  
Aerosol Emission ◽  
Trade Offs

Abstract. Geoengineering applications by injection of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere are under consideration as a measure of last resort to counter global warming. Here adaptation to a potential regional scale application to offset the impacts of heat waves is critically examined. The effect of regional scale sulfate aerosol emission over California in each of two days of the July 2006 heat wave using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with fully coupled chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used to quantify potential reductions in surface temperature as a function of emission rates in the lower stratosphere. Over the range considered, afternoon temperature reductions scale almost linearly with injections. Local meteorological factors yield geographical differences in surface air temperature sensitivity. For emission rates of approximately 30 μg m−2 s−1 of sulfate aerosols (with standard WRF-Chem size distribution) over the region, temperature decreases of around 7 °C result during the middle part of the day over the Central Valley, one of the hardest hit by the heat wave. Regions more ventilated with oceanic air such as Los Angeles have slightly smaller reductions. The length of the hottest part of the day is also reduced. Advection effects on the aerosol cloud must be more carefully forecast for smaller injection regions. Verification of the impacts could be done via measurements of differences in reflected and surface downward shortwave. Such regional geoengineering applications with specific near-term target effects but smaller cost and side effects could potentially provide a means of testing larger scale applications. However, design trade-offs differ from global applications and the size of the required injections and the necessity of injection close to the target region raise substantial concerns. The evaluation of this regional scale application is thus consistent with global model evaluations emphasizing that mitigation via reduction of fossil fuels remains preferable to considering geoengineering with sulfate aerosols.

scholarly journals Disentangling the response of forest and grassland energy exchange to heatwaves under idealized land–atmosphere coupling

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 5969-5995
Author(s):  
C. C. van Heerwaarden ◽  
A. J. Teuling
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Dynamic Properties ◽  
Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Early Morning ◽  
Stomatal Resistance ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Sensible Heat ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Wave Conditions

Abstract. This study investigates the difference in land–atmosphere interactions between grassland and forest during typical heat wave conditions in order to understand the controversial results of Teuling et al. (2010) (T10, hereafter), who have found the systematic occurrence of higher sensible heat fluxes over forest than over grassland during heat wave conditions. With a simple, but accurate coupled land–atmosphere model, we are able to reproduce the findings of T10 for both normal summer and heat wave conditions, and to carefully explore the sensitivity of the coupled land–atmosphere system to changes in incoming radiation and early-morning temperature. Our results emphasize the importance of fast processes during the onset of heat waves, since we are able to explain the results of T10 without having to take into account changes in soil moisture. In order to disentangle the contribution of differences in several static and dynamic properties between forest and grassland, we have performed an experiment in which new land use types are created that are equal to grassland, but with one of its properties replaced by that of forest. From these, we conclude that the closure of stomata in the presence of dry air is by far the most important process in creating the different behavior of grassland and forest during the onset of a heat wave. However, we conclude that for a full explanation of the results of T10 also the other properties (albedo, roughness and the ratio of minimum stomatal resistance to leaf-area index) play an important, but indirect role; their influences mainly consist of strengthening the feedback that leads to the closure of the stomata by providing more energy that can be converted into sensible heat. The model experiment also confirms that, in line with the larger sensible heat flux, higher atmospheric temperatures occur over forest.

scholarly journals Evaluating sub-seasonal heatwave reforecasts of the ECMWF over Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalia Korhonen ◽  
Otto Hyvärinen ◽  
Matti Kämäräinen ◽  
Kirsti Jylhä
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Wave Forecast ◽  
Extended Range ◽  
Hot Days ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Summer Temperatures

<p>Severe heatwaves have harmful impacts on ecosystems and society. Early warning of heat waves help with decreasing their harmful impact. Previous research shows that the Extended Range Forecasts (ERF) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have over Europe a somewhat higher reforecast skill for extreme hot summer temperatures than for long-term mean temperatures. Also it has been shown that the reforecast skill of the ERFs of the ECMWF was strongly increased by the most severe heat waves (the European heatwave 2003 and the Russian heatwave 2010).</p><p>Our aim is to be able to estimate the skill of a heat wave forecast at the time the forecast is given. For that we investigated the spatial and temporal reforecast skill of the ERFs of the ECMWF to forecast hot days (here defined as a day on which the 5 days running mean surface temperature is above its summer 90<sup>th</sup> percentile) in the continental Europe in summers 2000-2019. We used the ECMWF 2-meter temperature reforecasts and verified them against the ERA5 reanalysis. The skill of the hot day reforecasts was estimated by the symmetric extremal dependence index (SEDI) which considers both hit rates and false alarm rates of the hot day forecasts. Further, we investigated the skill of the heatwave reforecasts based on at which time steps of the forecast the hot days were forecasted. We found that on the mesoscale (horizontal scale of ~500 km) the ERFs of the ECMWF were most skillful in predicting the life cycle of a heat wave (lasting up to 25 days) about a week before its start and during its course. That is, on the mesoscale those reforecasts, in which hot day(s) were forecasted to occur during the first 7…11 days, were more skillful on lead times up to 25 days than the rest of the heat wave forecasts. This finding is valuable information, e.g., in the energy and health sectors while preparing for a coming heat wave.</p><p>The work presented here is part of the research project HEATCLIM (Heat and health in the changing climate) funded by the Academy of Finland.</p>

scholarly journals Heat waves and health impact on human in Baghdad

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 212-222
Author(s):  
Zahraa Hassan ◽  
Hazima Al-Abassi ◽  
Monim Al-Jiboori
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Blood Samples ◽  
Normal Value ◽  
Atmospheric Sciences ◽  
Medical City ◽  
The Mean

This investigation aim to evaluate the effect of heat wave on health of human, so to achieve this 40 blood samples for person exposed to heat wave were drawn most patients were attend to specialists in hospital laboratories (Medical City, Ibn al-Baladi, Sheikh Zayed, Kadhimiya Educational). The patients aged 10–60 years, male (20) and female (20). CBC analyzes was performed. The result of the presents study recorded a highly signifi cant difference in total (mean and percent) as compared with the normal value of the CBC analyze the result for total (mean and percent) for male the factors CRP, ESR, WBC, PCV, PL (15.5, 43, 11.35, 28.5, 215) respectively (100%, 100%, 100%, 100%, 100%) and the result for total (mean and percent) for female the factors CRP, ESR, WBC, PCV, PL (15, 43.5, 11.35, 31, 220.5) respectively (100%, 100%, 100%, 100%, 100%). According to the result we can conclude that there was a highly significant deferent in mean value for patient compared with the normal value which is the mean cause of hard attack which lead to death. The study is the fi rst of its kind in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences in Iraq.

scholarly journals Using naturalistic incubation temperatures to demonstrate how variation in the timing and continuity of heat wave exposure influences phenotype

2020 ◽  
Vol 287 (1932) ◽  
pp. 20200992 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony T. Breitenbach ◽  
Amanda W. Carter ◽  
Ryan T. Paitz ◽  
Rachel M. Bowden
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Time Course ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Heat Exposure ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Similar Time ◽  
Expression Of Genes ◽  
Short Period ◽  
The Face ◽  
Temperature Exposure

Most organisms are exposed to bouts of warm temperatures during development, yet we know little about how variation in the timing and continuity of heat exposure influences biological processes. If heat waves increase in frequency and duration as predicted, it is necessary to understand how these bouts could affect thermally sensitive species, including reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD). In a multi-year study using fluctuating temperatures, we exposed Trachemys scripta embryos to cooler, male-producing temperatures interspersed with warmer, female-producing temperatures (heat waves) that varied in either timing during development or continuity and then analysed resulting sex ratios. We also quantified the expression of genes involved in testis differentiation ( Dmrt1 ) and ovary differentiation ( Cyp19A1 ) to determine how heat wave continuity affects the expression of genes involved in sexual differentiation. Heat waves applied during the middle of development produced significantly more females compared to heat waves that occurred just 7 days before or after this window, and even short gaps in the continuity of a heat wave decreased the production of females. Continuous heat exposure resulted in increased Cyp19A1 expression while discontinuous heat exposure failed to increase expression in either gene over a similar time course. We report that even small differences in the timing and continuity of heat waves can result in drastically different phenotypic outcomes. This strong effect of temperature occurred despite the fact that embryos were exposed to the same number of warm days during a short period of time, which highlights the need to study temperature effects under more ecologically relevant conditions where temperatures may be elevated for only a few days at a time. In the face of a changing climate, the finding that subtle shifts in temperature exposure result in substantial effects on embryonic development becomes even more critical.

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