Extrapolation Bias and Robust Dynamic Liquidity Management

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seokwoo Lee ◽  
Alejandro Rivera
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Ambiguity Aversion ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Liquidity Management ◽  
Optimal Dynamic ◽  
Cash Flow Volatility ◽  
Future Cash Flows

We consider the optimal dynamic liquidity management of a financially constrained firm when its existing shareholders are risk neutral but ambiguity averse with respect to the firm’s future cash flows. The shareholders’ ambiguity aversion generates endogenous time-varying worst-case beliefs that overweight recent cash flow realizations, thereby providing a microeconomic foundation for extrapolation bias. Moreover, shareholders’ ambiguity aversion has different implications on firms’ liquidity management and recapitalization policies than risk. Models with risk alone imply that higher cash flow volatility increases firms’ payout and refinancing thresholds. By contrast, our model predicts that, when ambiguity-averse shareholders face a higher long-term cash flow uncertainty, they optimally reduce firms’ payout and refinancing thresholds. The implications for investment are also studied. This paper was accepted by Agostino Capponi, finance.

scholarly journals Foreign Monitoring and Predictability of Future Cash Flow

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 4832
Author(s):  
Jaehong Lee ◽  
Eunsoo Kim
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Future Cash Flow ◽  
Flow Components ◽  
Future Cash Flows

A company’s sustainability is generally determined by whether it is able to create a positive long-term cash flow. This paper investigates whether the predictive ability of cash flows and earnings in forecasting future cash flows differs depending on the foreign investors’ ownership. Based on firms listed in the Korea Stock Exchange market from 2000 to 2017, we find that earnings and cash flow components of financial statements enhance the predictability of future cash flow in the Korean stock market. Conversely, foreign investors showed a tendency to decide on investments based on operating cash flow instead of earnings when predicting future cash flow. These findings indicate that reliability towards earnings may fall since foreign investors’ concerns are on the prospects of earnings management. These results were strengthened by the addition of several more analyses including cluster analyses, consideration of information asymmetry and the chaebol governance.

The impact of cash flow volatility on firm leverage and debt maturity structure: evidence from China

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zulfiqar Ali Memon ◽  
Yan Chen ◽  
Muhammad Zubair Tauni ◽  
Hashmat Ali
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Debt Maturity ◽  
Percent Reduction ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Debt Maturity Structure ◽  
Maturity Structure ◽  
Cash Flow Volatility

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of cash flow volatility on firm’s leverage levels. It also analyzes how cash flow volatility influences the debt maturity structure for the Chinese listed firms. Design/methodology/approach The authors construct the measure for cash flow variability as five-year rolling standard deviation of the cash flow from operations. The authors use generalized linear model approach to determine the effect of volatility on leverage. In addition, the authors design a categorical debt maturity variable and assign categories depending upon firm’s usage of debt at various maturity levels. The authors apply Ordered Probit regression to analyze how volatility affects firm’s debt maturity structure. The authors lag volatility and other independent variables in the estimation models so as to eliminate any possible endogeneity problems. Finally, the authors execute various techniques for verifying the robustness of the main findings. Findings The authors provide evidence that higher volatility of cash flows results in lower leverage levels, while the sub-sampling analysis reveals that there is no such inverse association in the case of Chinese state-owned enterprises. The authors also provide novel findings that irrespective of the ownership structure, firms facing high volatility choose debt of relatively shorter maturities and vice versa. Overall, a rise of one standard deviation in volatility causes 8.89 percent reduction in long-term market leverage ratio and 26.62 percent reduction in the likelihood of issuing debentures or long-term notes. Research limitations/implications This study advocates that cash flow volatility is an essential factor for determining both the debt levels and firm’s term-to-maturity structure. The findings of this study can be helpful for the financial managers in maintaining optimal leverage and debt maturity structure, for lenders in reducing their risk of non-performing loans and for investors in their decision-making process. Originality/value Existing empirical literature regarding the influence of variability of cash flows on leverage and debt maturity structure is inconclusive. Moreover, prior research studies mainly focus only on the developed countries. No previous comprehensive study exists so far for Chinese firms in this regard. This paper endeavors to fulfill this research gap by furnishing novel findings in the context of atypical and distinctive institutional setup of Chinese firms.

Where Did All the Dollars Go? The Effect of Cash Flows on Capital and Asset Structure

2011 ◽  
Vol 46 (5) ◽  
pp. 1259-1294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudipto Dasgupta ◽  
Thomas H. Noe ◽  
Zhen Wang
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Goods Market ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Debt Market ◽  
Short And Long Term

AbstractThis paper documents the short- and long-term balance sheet effect of cash flows. We show that cash savings in the short run and debt reduction in both the short and the long run account for a substantial fraction of cash flow use. Although, in the long run, investment exhibits substantial sensitivity to cash flows, investment does not absorb the entire cash flow shock. In fact, the tighter the financial constraints, the smaller the fraction of cash flow absorbed by investment and the more by leverage reduction. Firms stage their response to increases in cash flow, delaying investment while building up cash stocks and reducing leverage. These results suggest that much of the short-run economic effect of cash flow shocks to the corporate sector may be channeled into the corporate debt market rather than the capital goods market, especially when financing constraints tighten.

Does Financial Reporting Conservatism Mitigate Underinvestment?

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 258-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyun A. Hong ◽  
Yongtae Kim ◽  
Gerald J. Lobo
Keyword(s):  
Information Asymmetry ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Agency Conflicts ◽  
Negative Relation ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
External Capital ◽  
Cash Flow Volatility

This study examines the role of financial reporting conservatism in mitigating underinvestment problems. Recognizing that volatile cash flows increase the need to access external capital markets and that agency conflicts and information asymmetry make external capital costlier than internal capital, which leads managers to forgo valuable investment projects, Minton and Schrand document a negative relation between cash flow volatility and investment. We draw on Minton and Schrand’s framework to isolate underinvestment problems and hypothesize and document that conservatism mitigates the negative relation between cash flow volatility and investment and that this mitigative effect is more pronounced for firms with ex ante more severe agency conflicts. We also document that conservatism mitigates the sensitivity of investment to cash flow volatility by facilitating access to external capital.

scholarly journals Kemampuan Laba dan Arus Kas Operasi dalam Memprediksi Laba dan Arus Kas Masa Depan

2018 ◽  
pp. 80
Author(s):  
Frans AP Dromexs Lumbantoruan ◽  
I Gusti Ngurah Agung Suaryana
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Flow Property ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Future Earnings ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Operating Cash Flow ◽  
Future Cash Flows

This study aims to determine the ability of earnings and operating cash flows in predicting earnings and future cash flows. This research was conducted on property and real estate companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The samples used by 20 companies with 40 observations. The sampling was done by nonprobability samplingmethod with purposive samplingtechnique. The analysis technique used is multiple linear regression analysis. Based on the result of the analysis, earnings influences in predicting future earnings. Likewise, earnings and operating cash flow have an effect in predicting future cash flows. However, operating cash flow is not influential in predicting future earnings. Keywords: profitability, cash flow, property

scholarly journals The Influence of Future Cash Flow Predictions on Profits in Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange

2021 ◽  
pp. 026-033
Author(s):  
Titik Purwanti
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Purposive Sampling ◽  
Future Cash Flow ◽  
Operating Profit ◽  
Food And Beverage ◽  
Future Cash Flows

This research was conducted to determine the effect of future cash flow predictions on profits (gross profit, operating profit, and net income) in food and beverage companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The method used in this research used purposive sampling with a population of food and beverage companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2016-2018. The samples in this research were 19 companies. The results obtained indicate that the operating profit variable has a partial effect on future cash flows, while the net income variable and the gross profit variable do not partially affect future cash flows. Simultaneously, gross profit, operating profit and net income have an effect on future cash flows.

scholarly journals Cash flow disaggregation and prediction of cash flow

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 464-479 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ehsan Khansalar ◽  
Mohammad Namazi
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Income Statement ◽  
Aggregated Model ◽  
Flow Components ◽  
Future Cash Flows

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the incremental information content of estimates of cash flow components in predicting future cash flows. Design/methodology/approach The authors examine whether the models incorporating components of operating cash flow from income statements and balance sheets using the direct method are associated with smaller prediction errors than the models incorporating core and non-core cash flow. Findings Using data from US and UK firms and multiple regression analysis, the authors find that around 60 per cent of a current year’s cash flow will persist into the next period’s cash flows, and that income statement and balance sheet variables persist similarly. The explanatory power and predictive ability of disaggregated cash flow models are superior to that of an aggregated model, and further disaggregating previously applied core and non-core cash flows provides incremental information about income statement and balance sheet items that enhances prediction of future cash flows. Disaggregated models and their components produce lower out-of-sample prediction errors than an aggregated model. Research limitations/implications This study improves our appreciation of the behaviour of cash flow components and confirms the need for detailed cash flow information in accordance with the articulation of financial statements. Practical implications The findings are relevant to investors and analysts in predicting future cash flows and to regulators with respect to disclosure requirements and recommendations. Social implications The findings are also relevant to financial statement users interested in better predicting a firm’s future cash flows and thereby, its firm’s value. Originality/value This paper contributes to the existing literature by further disaggregating cash flow items into their underlying items from income statements and balance sheets.

scholarly journals Prior credit assessment of long-term SME projects with non-standard cash flows

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 148-158
Author(s):  
Serhii Onikiienko ◽  
Yevheniia Polishchuk ◽  
Alla Ivashenko ◽  
Anna Kornyliuk ◽  
Nazar Demchyshak
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Flow Analysis ◽  
Estimation Algorithm ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Economic Life ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Preliminary Evaluation ◽  
Value Based Management ◽  
Loan Demand

Over the past three decades, the relative bank loan demand has changed due to the arising small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Therefore, banks in their operations face the problem of processing an ever-increasing number of loan applications. The aim of this paper is to develop an auxiliary approach to assessing the prior creditworthiness of long-term SME projects with nonstandard cash flows.This study reveals how the principles of value-based management can be incorporated into the process of borrower’s creditworthiness assessment to improve the process of screening loan applications. For this, the internal rate of return was used as a criterion for loan granting decision at the initial stage of loan underwriting.An algorithm for the preliminary evaluation of loan applications is proposed and is based on the principle of maximizing the shareholder value of banks. This algorithm helps to define the credit terms taking into consideration the distribution of positive cash flows throughout the project’s expected economic life, calculate the possible real effective interest rate concerning the borrower’s nonstandard cash flow schedule, make a rough analysis on the economic efficiency of lending and state the necessary criterion to initiate the procedure of loan underwriting for the projects with nonstandard cash flow schedules. The proposed estimation algorithm stemming from the IRR-approach for the cash flow analysis can also be initially used by a borrower as a tool for credit solvency self-testing via screening of periods with corresponding cash flows that can be used for loan servicing.

scholarly journals The usefulness of operating cash flow information: Does format matter?

2012 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shadi Farshadfar
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Indirect Method ◽  
Direct Method ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Indirect Methods ◽  
Flow Information ◽  
Operating Cash Flow ◽  
Future Cash Flows ◽  
Direct And Indirect Methods ◽  
Level Analysis

This study investigates whether the direct method of presenting cash flows from operations is superior to the indirect method in its ability to forecast future cash flows. It also considers the effect of industry characteristics on the relative usefulness of direct and indirect methods of cash flow presentation. The study, which uses a sample of Australian firms, finds that both the direct and indirect methods improve the forecast of future cash flows. However, the indirect method of reporting cash flows from operations is more relevant than the direct method in predicting future cash flows. Evidence from the industry-level analysis overall reinforces the main results.

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