Selecting the Best Alternative Based on Its Quantile

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Demet Batur ◽  
F. Fred Choobineh
Keyword(s):  
Value At Risk ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Correct Selection ◽  
Zone Size ◽  
Indifference Zone ◽  
Probability Of Correct Selection ◽  
A Value ◽  
Conscious Decision ◽  
Target Probability ◽  
Sequential Procedures

A value-at-risk, or quantile, is widely used as an appropriate investment selection measure for risk-conscious decision makers. We present two quantile-based sequential procedures—with and without consideration of equivalency between alternatives—for selecting the best alternative from a set of simulated alternatives. These procedures asymptotically guarantee a user-defined target probability of correct selection within a prespecified indifference zone. Experimental results demonstrate the trade-off between the indifference-zone size and the number of simulation iterations needed to render a correct selection while satisfying a desired probability of correct selection.

SELECTING THE MOST RELIABLE POPULATION UNDER STEP-STRESS ACCELERATED LIFE TEST

1999 ◽  
Vol 06 (04) ◽  
pp. 347-359 ◽  
Author(s):  
LOON CHING TANG ◽  
YESHENG SUN
Keyword(s):  
Selection Procedure ◽  
Approximate Expression ◽  
Accelerated Life Testing ◽  
Accelerated Life Test ◽  
Correct Selection ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Indifference Zone ◽  
Probability Of Correct Selection ◽  
Accelerated Life ◽  
Favorable Configuration

We present a method for selecting the most reliable population under step-stress accelerated life testing with type II censoring. We construct a new statistic, the transitional order statistic (TOS), and derive an approximate expression for its distribution. Using the TOS, a selection rule is formulated from the test results. For planning purposes, we establish the relation between sample size and the probability of correct selection by defining a nonlinear indifference zone under the least favorable configuration. Finally, a simulation study is performed to illustrate the selection procedure and to validate the associated probability of correct selection.

Fixed-Confidence, Fixed-Tolerance Guarantees for Ranking-and-Selection Procedures

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-33
Author(s):  
David J. Eckman ◽  
Shane G. Henderson
Keyword(s):  
Sufficient Conditions ◽  
Subset Selection ◽  
Ranking And Selection ◽  
Correct Selection ◽  
Selection Procedures ◽  
Indifference Zone ◽  
Second Best ◽  
Probability Of Correct Selection ◽  
Statistical Ranking ◽  
Ranking And Selection Procedures

Ever since the conception of the statistical ranking-and-selection (R8S) problem, a predominant approach has been the indifference-zone (IZ) formulation. Under the IZ formulation, R8S procedures are designed to provide a guarantee on the probability of correct selection (PCS) whenever the performance of the best system exceeds that of the second-best system by a specified amount. We discuss the shortcomings of this guarantee and argue that providing a guarantee on the probability of good selection (PGS)—selecting a system whose performance is within a specified tolerance of the best—is a more justifiable goal. Unfortunately, this form of fixed-confidence, fixed-tolerance guarantee has received far less attention within the simulation community. We present an overview of the PGS guarantee with the aim of reorienting the simulation community toward this goal. We examine numerous techniques for proving the PGS guarantee, including sufficient conditions under which selection and subset-selection procedures that deliver the IZ-inspired PCS guarantee also deliver the PGS guarantee.

Stress Testing in a Value at Risk Framework

CFA Digest ◽  
1999 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 76-78
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Latta
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Stress Testing ◽  
A Value ◽  
Risk Framework

scholarly journals Regional Coordination and Security of Water–Energy–Food Symbiosis in Northeastern China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1326
Author(s):  
Hongfang Li ◽  
Huixiao Wang ◽  
Yaxue Yang ◽  
Ruxin Zhao
Keyword(s):  
External Environment ◽  
Northeastern China ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Human Survival ◽  
A Value ◽  
Natural Factors ◽  
Regional Coordination ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Coordination Degree

The interactions of water, energy, and food, which are essential resources for human survival, livelihoods, production, and development, constitute a water–energy–food (WEF) nexus. Applying symbiosis theory, the economic, social, and natural factors were considered at the same time in the WEF system, and we conducted a micro-level investigation focusing on the stability, coordination, and sustainability of the symbiotic units (water, energy, and food), and external environment of the WEF system in 36 prefecture-level cities across three northeastern provinces of China. Finally, we analyzed the synergistic safety and coupling coordination degree of the WEF system by the combination of stability, coordination, and sustainability, attending to the coordination relationship and influences of the external environment. The results indicated that the synergistic safety of the WEF system in three northeastern provinces need to equally pay attention to the stability, coordination, and sustainability of the WEF system, since their weights were 0.32, 0.36 and 0.32, respectively. During 2010–2016, the synergistic safety indexes of the WEF system ranged between 0.40 and 0.60, which was a state of boundary safety. In the current study, the coupling coordination degree of the WEF system fluctuated around a value of 0.6, maintaining a primary coordination level; while in the future of 2021–2026, it will decline to 0.57–0.60, dropping to a weak coordinated level. The conclusion could provide effective information for decision-makers to take suitable measures for the security development of a WEF system.

scholarly journals How Can Scientific Literature Support Decision-Making in the Renovation of Historic Buildings? An Evidence-Based Approach for Improving the Performance of Walls

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 2266
Author(s):  
Valentina Marincioni ◽  
Virginia Gori ◽  
Ernst Jan de Place Hansen ◽  
Daniel Herrera-Avellanosa ◽  
Sara Mauri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Performance ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Cultural Value ◽  
Correct Selection ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Historic Buildings ◽  
Indoor Environmental Quality ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Assessment Design

Buildings of heritage significance due to their historical, architectural, or cultural value, here called historic buildings, constitute a large proportion of the building stock in many countries around the world. Improving the performance of such buildings is necessary to lower the carbon emissions of the stock, which generates around 40% of the overall emissions worldwide. In historic buildings, it is estimated that heat loss through external walls contributes significantly to the overall energy consumption, and is associated with poor thermal comfort and indoor air quality. Measures to improve the performance of walls of historic buildings require a balance between energy performance, indoor environmental quality, heritage significance, and technical compatibility. Appropriate wall measures are available, but the correct selection and implementation require an integrated process throughout assessment (planning), design, construction, and use. Despite the available knowledge, decision-makers often have limited access to robust information on tested retrofit measures, hindering the implementation of deep renovation. This paper provides an evidence-based approach on the steps required during assessment, design, and construction, and after retrofitting through a literature review. Moreover, it provides a review of possible measures for wall retrofit within the deep renovation of historic buildings, including their advantages and disadvantages and the required considerations based on context.

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