scholarly journals Computational Efficiency in Multivariate Adversarial Risk Analysis Models

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 314-332 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Perry ◽  
Hadi El-Amine

In this paper, we address the computational feasibility of the class of decision theoretic models referred to as adversarial risk analyses (ARAs). These are models where a decision must be made with consideration for how an intelligent adversary may behave and where the decision-making process of the adversary is unknown and is elicited by analyzing the adversary's decision problem using priors on his utility function and beliefs. The motivation of this research was to develop a computational algorithm that can be applied across a broad range of ARA models; to the best of our knowledge, no such algorithm currently exists. Using a two-person sequential model, we incrementally increase the size of the model and develop a simulation-based approximation of the true optimum where an exact solution is computationally impractical. In particular, we begin with a relatively large decision space by considering a theoretically continuous space that must be discretized. Then, we incrementally increase the number of strategic objectives, which causes the decision space to grow exponentially. The problem is exacerbated by the presence of an intelligent adversary who also must solve an exponentially large decision problem according to some unknown decision-making process. Nevertheless, using a stylized example that can be solved analytically, we show that our algorithm not only solves large ARA models quickly but also accurately selects to the true optimal solution. Furthermore, the algorithm is sufficiently general that it can be applied to any ARA model with a large, yet finite, decision space.

2015 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 215-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valentin Grecu

Abstract There is rarely an optimal solution in sustainable development but most frequently a need to build compromises between conflicting aspects such as economic, social and environmental ones and different expectations of stakeholders. Moreover, information is rarely available and precise. This paper will focus on how to use indicators to monitor sustainable development, integrating the information provided by many of them into a complex general sustainability index. Having this general indicator is essential for decision makers as it is very complicated to evaluate the performance of the organization based on multiple indicators. The objective of this paper is to find mathematical algorithms for simplifying the decision-making process by offering an instrument for the evaluation of the sustainability progress.


2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Bottero ◽  
Chiara D’Alpaos ◽  
Alessandra Oppio

The paper illustrates the development of an evaluation model for supporting the decision-making process related to an urban regeneration intervention. In particular, the study proposes an original multi-methodological approach, which combines SWOT Analysis, Stakeholders Analysis and PROMETHEE method for the evaluation of alternative renewal strategies of an urban area in Northern Italy. The article also describes the work carried out within an experts’ panel that has been organized for validating the structuring of the decision problem and for evaluating the criteria of the model.


2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 1235-1241
Author(s):  
Marina Badarovska Mishevska

The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a structured technique for organizing and analyzing complex decisions, based on mathematics and psychology. The method was developed by Thomas L. Saaty in the 1970s and has been extensively studied and refined since then. It has particular application in group decision making and is used around the world in a wide variety of decision situation. Rather than prescribing a "correct" decision, the AHP helps decision makers choose one that best suits their goal and their understanding of the problem. The technique provides a comprehensive and rational framework for structuring a decision problem, for representing and quantifying its elements, for relating those elements to overall goals, and for evaluating alternative solutions. Decision making is the choice of one alternative, from two or more, to which the course of the activity is directed and the problem is solved. The decision-making process is a rational attempt by the manager to achieve the goals of the organizational unit. The decision-making process can be thought of as a "brain and nervous system" of an enterprise. Decisions are made when a person wants things to be different in the future. Given each specific situation, making the right decisions is probably one of the most difficult challenges for managers. Managers in day-to-day work deliver programmed and unprogrammed decisions that solve simple or complex problems. Simple decisions have an impact on the short-term performance of the enterprise, and complex decisions have an impact on the long-term future and success of the enterprise. Users of the AHP first decompose their decision problem into a hierarchy of more easily comprehended sub-problems, each of which can be analyzed independently. Once the hierarchy is built, the decision makers systematically evaluate its various elements by comparing them to each other two at a time, with respect to their impact on an element above them in the hierarchy. The AHP converts these evaluations to numerical values that can be processed and compared over the entire range of the problem. In this article, it is explained the application of the AHP method in order to evaluate and promote employees in the enterprise "X" with several criteria. The obtained results enable the manager to evaluate the employees in an objective way and make an objective decision for their promotion. Its application for selecting the best among employees, in their assessment and promotion, allows managers to use a specific and mathematical tool to support the decision. This tool not only supports and qualifies decisions, it also allows managers to justify their choice, as well as to simulate possible results.


2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 319-345 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramachandran N. ◽  
Sivaprakasam P. ◽  
Thangamani G. ◽  
Anand G.

Purpose – Cloud Computing (CC) technology is getting implemented rapidly in the educational sector to improve learning, research and other administrative process. As evident from the literature review, most of these implementations are happening in the western countries such as USA, UK, while the level of implementation of CC in developing countries such as India is rare. Moreover, implementing CC technology in the educational sector require various decisions to be made by the managers of the Information Technology (IT) department such as selecting suitable deployment model, vendor providing cloud service, etc. in their respective university or institute. The purpose of this paper is to attempt to address one such decision. Since, different types of CC deployment are available; selecting a suitable one plays a key role, as it might have an impact on the requirements of various stakeholders such as students, teachers, administrative staff (especially the staff members in the IT department), etc. apart from affecting the overall performance of the facilities such as a laboratory. Naturally, a proper decision by analysing multiple perspectives has to be made while carrying out such strategic initiatives by any educational institute. Design/methodology/approach – A case study methodology has been chosen as the research methodology to discuss and demonstrate the above decision problem that was faced in real time by one of the educational institutes in India, offering high-quality management education. The IT managers of this institute were planning to switch over to CC technology for the computer laboratory and they have to make a decision of choosing suitable alternative CC deployment models such as private cloud (PRC), public cloud (PUC), community cloud (COC), hybrid cloud (HYC), etc. by analysing and comparing them based on various factors and perspectives such as elasticity, availability, scalability, etc. Since, multiple factors are involved in making such a strategic decision, the most commonly used Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) model – namely, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used as a decision support during the decision making process. Findings – The team of decision makers, who were planning to implement CC in the case institute, found that PRC is best as they believed that it would provide adequate cost savings, apart from providing necessary security to maintain confidential information such as student's detail, grades, etc. Research limitations/implications – The results obtained are based on a single case study. Hence, they cannot be generalized for institutions across educational sector. However, the decision making situation and understanding its impact on the stakeholders of the educational institute can be common across various educational institute. Practical implications – Using a real-life case study of an educational institute, this paper presented a strategic decision making situation, which needs to be considered by the IT managers of the educational institutes when they decide to switch over to CC technology. Various criteria to be considered during the decision making process was identified from the literature review were identified and enumerated. These factors would useful for the IT managers of the different educational institute and they can suitably add or delete these decision criteria as per their requirements and situation at hand. Moreover, the algorithm of AHP, which was used as a decision support, was presented in a step-by-step manner, which should be beneficial for the practitioners to apply the same for similar decision making situations. Originality/value – It is believed that this paper would be the first to report on a strategic decision of choosing the deployment model for CC technology especially in the educational sector. Similarly, this paper would also contribute to the field of CC, as it lists out the decision criteria that are to be considered for making the above decision, which has not got adequate importance. Lastly, this paper is also unique in the realm of AHP because application for a decision problem in the field of CC especially in the educational sector is least reported.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jackson Champer ◽  
Joanna Zhao ◽  
Joanna Zhao ◽  
Samuel E. Champer ◽  
Jingxian Liu ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTUnderdominance gene drive systems promise a mechanism for rapidly spreading payload alleles through a local population while otherwise remaining confined, unable to spread into neighboring populations due to their frequency-dependent dynamics. Such systems could provide a new tool in the fight against vector-borne diseases by disseminating transgenic payloads through vector populations. If local confinement can indeed be achieved, the decision-making process for the release of such constructs would likely be considerably simpler compared to other gene drive mechanisms such as CRISPR homing drives. So far, the confinement ability of underdominance systems has only been demonstrated in models of panmictic populations linked by migration. How such systems would behave in realistic populations where individuals move over continuous space remains largely unknown. Here, we study several underdominance systems in continuous-space population models and show that their dynamics are drastically altered from those in panmictic populations. Specifically, we find that all underdominance systems we studied can fail to persist in such environments, even after successful local establishment. At the same time, we find that a two-locus two-toxin-antitoxin system can still successfully invade neighboring populations in many scenarios even under weak migration. This suggests that the parameter space for underdominance systems to both establish in a given region and remain confined to that region would likely be highly limited. Overall, these results indicate that spatial context must be considered when assessing strategies for the deployment of underdominance systems.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tongle Zhou ◽  
Mou Chen ◽  
Yuhui Wang ◽  
Ronggang Zhu ◽  
Chenguang Yang

Abstract Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have shown their superiority for applications in complicated military missions. A cooperative attack-defense decision-making method based on satisficing decision-enhanced wolf pack search (SDEWPS) algorithm is developed for multi-UAV air combat in this paper. Firstly, the multi-UAV air combat mathematical model is provided and the attack-defense decision-making constraints are defined. Besides the traditional air combat situation, the capability of UAVs and target information including target type and target intention are all considered in this paper to establish the air combat superiority function. Then, the wolf pack search (WPS) algorithm is used to solve the attack decision problem. In order to improve efficiency, the satisficing decision theory is employed to enhance the WPS to obtain the satisficing solution rather than optimal solution. The simulation results show that the developed method can realize the cooperative attack decision-making.


Author(s):  
AYELEY P. TCHANGANI

This paper considers the evaluation step in a decision-making process that follows decision-making goals setting, feasible alternatives and attributes or criteria that characterize them determination steps. Evaluation step must establish a model or algorithm to evaluate alternatives taking into account their performances with regard to criteria as well as decision makers or stakeholders preferences. Though this problem is rather a classic one, researches related to evaluation model construction continue to be active to find models that cope with more realities or that fit well how human beings behave in group and proceed when facing the problem of choosing, ranking or sorting alternatives or options. The purpose of this paper is to construct an evaluation model that integrate the performances of alternatives with regard to attributes or criteria and decision makers or agents opinions with regard to the importance to assign to each criterion in order to obtain a value function. As any decision problem is almost always a matter of tradeoff, among attributes characterizing alternatives there will be those acting toward the achievement of decision makers goal (benefit) and those that decision makers would like to reduce as much as possible (cost); we will designate the first ones as positive attributes and the later ones as negative attributes. The process of dividing attributes into positive attributes and negative attributes is beyond the scope of this paper and this partition will be considered as a part of the problem specification. The model is constructed in two steps: firstly, satisfiability (selectability and rejectability) measures or functions are obtained for each alternative using attributes values (positive attributes will contribute to selectability measure whereas negative ones are used in the derivation of rejectability measure) and agents opinions in the framework of satisficing game theory and secondly a value function is built on that measures. Agents opinions with regard to attributes will be expressed locally by weighting them by category (positive/negative).


Resources ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabina Kordana ◽  
Daniel Słyś

Progressing urbanisation is one of the key causes of environmental degradation. This problem also applies to stormwater management. For this reason, drainage infrastructures should be designed in harmony with nature and the decision for selecting a specific stormwater management system solution must not be taken on an ad-hoc or single-perspective basis. The purpose of this paper is to identify the criteria for selecting the best solution for a problem involving the selection of a stormwater management system, and to present a method that will enable all relevant criteria to be taken into account in the decision-making process. The developed decision problem structure takes into account all criteria related to the construction and operation of stormwater infrastructure, and its individual elements were identified based on the analysis and synthesis of information regarding the principles of stormwater management in Poland. The presented approach will allow for the taking into account of all, often mutually exclusive, criteria determining the choice of the stormwater management system option. This, in turn, will make it possible to significantly simplify the decision-making process. The indicated criteria can form the basis for choosing the most favorable stormwater management system for both large urban catchments and individual facilities. Thanks to the considerable flexibility of the developed decision problem structure, its widespread application can contribute to improving the efficiency of stormwater management systems. An example of the developed model’s application in a decision-making process is presented, concerning the selection of a design variant of a single-family residential building’s stormwater management system in Poland. Four design variants were included in the analysis, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process was used as the tool to select the most favorable option. This study shows that nature-based solutions are the most beneficial decision stormwater management options.


2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
GHEORGHE DIANA ◽  
ARMAS IULIANA

Because of the increasing volume of information, problem decisions tend to be more difficult to deal with. Achieving an objective and making a suitable decision may become a real challenge. In order to better deal with decision making, decision support systems (DSS) have been developed. The decision support systems (DSS) can be used in any kind of a decision-making process and are very suitable in situations that involve a lot of stakeholders and a large number of criteria. DSS offers support in the decision-making process (<em>how</em> a decision should be made), and it does not focus on the result (<em>what</em> decision that should be made). DSS can also involve a large number of stakeholders and criteria, in the same time. A limitation of this method is that, regardless of the mathematical results, the final decision has to be made by the decision maker. Depending on the nature of the decision problem, a decision maker can use decision support systems (DSS), if the decision problem is economic or technical, and spatial decision support systems (SDSS), if the decision maker is faced with a spatial decision problem. The main objective of the present study is to apply a spatial decision support system in order to find a suitable shelter in the historical centre of Bucharest City in the post-disaster phase, in case of an earthquake occurrence. The present work represents a first step in applying SDSS in the context of the seismic risk in Bucharest. For the present paper, the SMCE Module for ILWIS 3.4 was used. The method included the following steps: structuring the problem in a decision tree, applying standardization and weighting methods to the criteria, finding suitable alternatives and choosing one of the alternatives. The results show that several buildings can be used as a shelter and among these are ‘Creditul Roman’ Bank Palace, the National History Museum and the National Bank of Romania.


2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 598-614
Author(s):  
Guilherme Freitas Keller ◽  
Ângela Rozane Leal de Souza ◽  
Alice Munz Fernandes ◽  
Cassiane Oliveira Velho

Purpose: To identify the strategic actions that should be prioritized by the small accounting service companies of Porto Alegre/RS in the decision making process to maximize the possibility of achieving the strategic objectives. Method: Exploratory and descriptive qualitative research consisting of two steps. Initially, semi-structured interviews were conducted with managing partners of four accounting service companies in order to identify predominant elements of strategic planning, through content analysis operationalized with the aid of QSR NVivo 11 software. Later, the results provided subsidies for the second one. This stage sought to analyze the degree of relevance of its strategic actions in relation to the objectives through the Fuzzy Analysis made possible by the Matlab R2012 software. Originality/Relevance: Use of a methodology not usually employed in the area of applied social sciences to understand a phenomenon with consolidated theoretical support. Results: Six latent strategic objectives were identified: improving internal controls and improving processes; restructure the company; promote the brand; be a reference in quality and sustainability; increase revenues, and; maintain or improve the technical level of employees. It was found that there are a greater number of variables concerning the external environment than the internal one, and not all the actions that the accountig service companies take are sufficiently pertinent to achieve the strategic objectives satisfactorily. Theoretical/methodological contributions: Use of complementary research methods to understand a phenomenon that, although contributing to the decision making process of organizations, is generally not implemented by accounting service companies, especially small ones.


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