scholarly journals Possibilities and problems of Solar magnetic field observations for space weather forecast

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-33
Author(s):  
Михаил Демидов ◽  
Mikhail Demidov
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Magnetic Fields ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Heliospheric Current Sheet ◽  
Calculation Model ◽  
Original Material ◽  
Near Earth Space ◽  
Quantitative Calculation ◽  
Solar Wind Parameters

An essential part of the space weather problem, important in the last decades, is the forecast of near-Earth space parameters, ionospheric and geomagnetic conditions on the basis of observations of various phenomena on the Sun. Of particular importance are measurements of magnetic fields as they determine the spatial structure of outer layers of the solar atmosphere and, to a large extent, solar wind parameters. Due to lack of opportunities to observe magnetic fields directly in the corona, the almost only source of various models for quantitative calculation of heliospheric parameters are daily magnetograms measured in photospheric lines and synoptic maps derived from these magnetograms. It turns out that results of the forecast, in particular of the solar wind velocity in Earth’s orbit and the position of the heliospheric current sheet, greatly depend not only on the chosen calculation model, but also on the original material because magnetograms from different instruments (and often observations in different lines at the same), although being morphologically similar, may differ significantly in a detailed quantitative analysis. A considerable part of this paper focuses on a detailed analysis of this particular aspect of the problem of space weather forecast.

scholarly journals Possibilities and problems of solar magnetic field observations for space weather forecast

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Михаил Демидов ◽  
Mikhail Demidov
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Magnetic Fields ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Heliospheric Current Sheet ◽  
Calculation Model ◽  
Original Material ◽  
Near Earth Space ◽  
Quantitative Calculation ◽  
Solar Wind Parameters

An essential part of the space weather problem, important in the last decades, is the forecast of near-Earth space parameters, ionospheric and geomagnetic conditions on the basis of observations of various phenomena on the Sun. Of particular importance are measurements of magnetic fields as they determine the spatial structure of outer layers of the solar atmosphere and, to a large extent, solar wind parameters. Due to lack of opportunities to observe magnetic fields directly in the corona, the almost only source of various models for quantitative calculation of heliospheric parameters are daily magnetograms measured in photospheric lines and synoptic maps derived from these magnetograms. It turns out that results of the forecast, in particular of the solar wind velocity in Earth’s orbit and the position of the heliospheric current sheet, greatly depend not only on the chosen calculation model, but also on the original material because magnetograms from different instruments (and often observations in different lines at the same), although being morphologically similar, may differ significantly in a detailed quantitative analysis. A considerable part of this paper focuses on a detailed analysis of this particular aspect of the problem of space weather forecast.

Seasonal and diurnal variations of geomagnetic activity and their role in Space Weather forecast

2001 ◽  
Vol 79 (6) ◽  
pp. 907-920 ◽  
Author(s):  
W Lyatsky ◽  
A M Hamza
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Diurnal Variation ◽  
Geomagnetic Activity ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Diurnal Variations ◽  
Ionospheric Conductivity ◽  
Solar Wind Parameters ◽  
Possible Cause

A possible test for different models explaining the seasonal variation in geomagnetic activity is the diurnal variation. We computed diurnal variations both in the occurrence of large AE (auroral electrojet) indices and in the AO index. (AO is the auroral electrojet index that provides a measure of the equivalent zonal current.) Both methods show a similar diurnal variation in geomagnetic activity with a deep minimum around (3–7) UT (universal time) in winter and a shallower minimum near 5–9 UT in equinoctial months. The observed UT variation is consistent with the results of other scientists, but it is different from that expected from the Russell–McPherron mechanism proposed to explain the seasonal variation. It is suggested that the possible cause for the diurnal and seasonal variations may be variations in nightside ionospheric conductivity. Recent experimental results show an important role for ionospheric conductivity in particle acceleration and geomagnetic disturbance generation. They also show that low ionospheric conductivity is favorable to the generation of auroral and geomagnetic activity. The conductivity in conjugate nightside auroral zones (where substorm generation takes place) is minimum at equinoxes, when both auroral zones are in darkness. The low ionospheric conductivity at equinoxes may be a possible cause for the seasonal variation in the geomagnetic activity with maxima in equinoctial months. The diurnal variation in geomagnetic activity can be produced by the UT variation in the nightside ionospheric conductivity, which in winter and at equinoxes has a maximum around 4–5 UT that may lead to a minimum in geomagnetic activity at this time. We calculated the correlation patterns for the AE index versus solar-wind parameters inside and outside the (2–7) UT sector related to the minimum in geomagnetic activity. The correlation patterns appear different in these two sectors indeed, which is well consistent with the UT variation in geomagnetic activity. It also shows that it is possible to improve significantly the reliability of the Space Weather forecast by taking into account the dependence of geomagnetic activity not only on solar-wind parameters but also on UT and season. Our test shows that a simple account for the dependence of geomagnetic activity on UT can improve the reliability of the Space Weather forecast by at least 50% in the 2–7 UT sector in winter and equinoctial months. PACS No.: 91.25Le

scholarly journals Formation of a strong southward IMF near the solar maximum of cycle 23

2004 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 673-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Watari ◽  
M. Vandas ◽  
T. Watanabe
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Magnetic Fields ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Solar Maximum ◽  
Interplanetary Shocks ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Interplanetary Magnetic Fields ◽  
Interplanetary Physics ◽  
Solar Wind Parameters ◽  
Interplanetary Disturbance

Abstract. We analyzed observations of the solar activities and the solar wind parameters associated with large geomagnetic storms near the maximum of solar cycle 23. This analysis showed that strong southward interplanetary magnetic fields (IMFs), formed through interaction between an interplanetary disturbance, and background solar wind or between interplanetary disturbances are an important factor in the occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms. Based on our analysis, we seek to improve our understanding of the physical processes in which large negative Bz's are created which will lead to improving predictions of space weather. Key words. Interplanetary physics (Flare and stream dynamics; Interplanetary magnetic fields; Interplanetary shocks)

scholarly journals ESTIMASI BADAI GEOMAGNET BERDASARKAN PERILAKU PARAMETER ANGIN SURYA DAN MEDAN MAGNET ANTARPLANET SEBELUM BADAI GEOMAGNET (THE ESTIMATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM BASED ON SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS AND INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD BEHAVIOR BEFORE GEOMAGNETIC STOR

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
Anwar Santoso ◽  
Mamat Rahimat ◽  
Rasdewita Kesumaningrum ◽  
Siska Filawati
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Wind ◽  
Geomagnetic Storm ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Science Center ◽  
Solar Wind Parameters ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Imf

Space weather research is the principal activity at the Space Science Center, Lapan to learn characteristics and generator source of the space weather so that can mitigate its the impact on the Earth's environment as mandated in Law No. 21 Year 2013. One of them is the phenomenon of geomagnetic storms. Geomagnetic storms caused by the entry of solar wind together with the IMF Bz that leads to the south. The behavior of the solar wind parameters together with the IMF Bz before geomagnetic storms can determine the formation of geomagnetic storms that caused it. In spite that, by the solar wind parameters and IMF Bz behavior before geomagnetic storm can be estimated its intensity through the equation Dst * = 1.599 * Ptotal - 34.48. The result of this equation is obtained that the Dst minimum deviation between the raw data and the output of this equation to the geomagnetic storm events on March 17, 2013 is about of -2.51 nT or 1.9% and on the geomagnetic storm events on February 19, 2014 is about of 2.77 nT or 2, 5%. Thus, the equation Dst * = 1.599 * Ptotal - 34.48 is very good for the estimation of geomagnetic storms.

scholarly journals Medium‐Range Forecasting of Solar Wind: A Case Study of Building Regression Model With Space Weather Forecast Testbed (SWFT)

Space Weather ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunming Wang ◽  
I. Gary Rosen ◽  
Bruce T. Tsurutani ◽  
Olga P. Verkhoglyadova ◽  
Xing Meng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Medium Range

Open magnetic fields on the Sun and solar wind parameters at the Earth’s orbit

2011 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 284-291
Author(s):  
V. N. Obridko ◽  
B. D. Shelting ◽  
I. M. Livshits
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Magnetic Fields ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Solar Wind Parameters

scholarly journals The global heliospheric magnetic field polarity distribution as seen at Ulysses

2003 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 1377-1382 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. H. Jones ◽  
A. Balogh
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Wind ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Magnetic Fields ◽  
Current Sheet ◽  
Heliospheric Current Sheet ◽  
Field Polarity ◽  
Heliospheric Magnetic Field ◽  
Interplanetary Magnetic Fields ◽  
Interplanetary Physics

Abstract. The Ulysses spacecraft is in a near-polar solar orbit with a period of 6.2 years. The heliospheric magnetic field polarity detected by Ulysses from its 1992 Jupiter encounter to the current time is presented, following ballistic mapping of the polarity information to the solar wind source surface, at approximately 2.5 solar radii. The spacecraft’s first foray to polar latitudes and first rapid heliolatitude scan occurred in 1994–1995, near a minimum in solar activity. The heliospheric current sheet during this period was confined to low heliolatitudes. In 2000–2001, Ulysses returned in situ data from the same region of its orbit as in 1994–1995, but near to the maximum in solar activity. Unlike at solar minimum, heliospheric current sheet crossings were detected at the spacecraft over a wide heliolatitude range, which is consistent with the reversal of the solar magnetic dipole occurring during solar maximum. Despite complexity in the solar wind parameters during the latest fast latitude scan (McComas et al., 2002), the underlying magnetic field structure appears consistent with a simple dipole inclined at a large angle to the solar rotational axis. The most recent data show the heliospheric current sheet returning to lower heliolatitudes, indicating that the dipole and rotational axes are realigning, with the Sun’s magnetic polarity having reversed.Key words. Interplanetary physics (interplanetary magnetic fields; sources of the solar wind) – Solar physics, astrophysics and astronomy (magnetic fields)

scholarly journals Improving solar wind forecasting using Data Assimilation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Lang ◽  
Jake Witherington ◽  
Harriet Turner ◽  
Mathew Owens ◽  
Pete Riley
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Solar Rotation ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Wind Model ◽  
Near Earth Space ◽  
Solar Wind Model

<div> <p>In terrestrial weather prediction, Data Assimilation (DA) has enabled huge improvements in operational forecasting capabilities. It does this by producing more accurate initial conditions and/or model parameters for forecasting; reducing the impacts of the “butterfly effect”. However, data assimilation is still in its infancy in space weather applications and it is not quantitatively understood how DA can improve space weather forecasts.</p> <p>To this effect, we have used a solar wind DA scheme to assimilate observations from STEREO A, STEREO B and ACE over the operational lifetime of STEREO-B (2007-2014). This scheme allows observational information at 1AU to update and improve the inner boundary of the solar wind model (at 30 solar radii). These improved inner boundary conditions are then input into the efficient solar wind model, HUXt, to produce forecasts of the solar wind over the next solar rotation.</p> <p>In this talk, I will be showing that data assimilation is capable of improving solar wind predictions not only in near-Earth space, but in the whole model domain, and compare these forecasts to corotation of observations from STEREO-B at Earth. I will also show that the DA forecasts are capable of reducing systematic errors that occur to latitudinal offset in STEREO-B’s corotation forecast.</p> </div>

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document