scholarly journals Διαχρονική εξέλιξη αντοχής στην κολιμυκίνη πολυανθεκτικών στελεχών klebsiella pneumoniae που απομονώθηκαν από το αίμα ασθενών

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Γιαννούλα Τάνσαρλη
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Klebsiella Pneumoniae ◽  
Standard Error ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Point Estimate ◽  
Transfer Function Model ◽  
Function Model ◽  
Slope Coefficient ◽  
Linear Transfer Function

Η βακτηριαιμία από Klebsiella pneumoniae που παράγει καρβαπενεμάσες (CP-Kp) σχετίζεται με υψηλά ποσοστά θνητότητας και συχνά, η κολιμυκίνη αποτελεί το μοναδικό αντιβιοτικό που διατηρεί δραστικότητα έναντι αυτών των παθογόνων μικροοργανισμών. Στην παρούσα μελέτη i) ελέγξαμε τη δραστικότητα αντιβιοτικών «τελευταίας γραμμής» έναντι CP-Kp στελεχών που απομονώθηκαν από το αίμα ασθενών που νοσηλεύτηκαν στο Λαϊκό νοσοκομείο την περίοδο 2002-2016 και ii) διερευνήσαμε την εξέλιξη της αντοχής στην κολιμυκίνη την ίδια χρονική περίοδο, καθώς και την ύπαρξη δυναμικής συσχέτισης μεταξύ της αντοχής στην κολιμυκίνη και της χρήσης του αντιβιοτικού. Συνολικά, 313 στελέχη βρέθηκαν θετικά για την παραγωγή τουλάχιστον μίας καρβαπενεμάσης με τη μέθοδο της πολυπλεκτικής PCR κατά την χρονική περίοδο της μελέτης μας και ονομάστηκαν CP-Kp (carbapenemase-producing K. pneumoniae). Από τα 313 CP-Kp στελέχη, τα 197 (62,9%) ήταν ανθεκτικά στη μεροπενέμη (ΕΑΠ >8 mg/L), τα 79 (25,2%) είχαν ΕΑΠ στη μεροπενέμη που κυμαινόταν στο εύρος 4–8 mg/L και τα 37 (11,8%) ήταν ευαίσθητα (ΕΑΠ ≤2 mg/L). Όσον αφορά τα υπόλοιπα αντιβιοτικά που ελέγχθηκαν, 35,1% (110/313) ήταν ανθεκτικά στην κολιμυκίνη, 30% (94/313) στη φωσφομυκίνη και 5,4% (17/313) στην τιγκεκυκλίνη. Η πολυμυξίνη Β παρουσίασε το ίδιο προφίλ ευαισθησίας με την κολιμυκίνη και οι τιμές ΕΑΠ διέφεραν κατά μία ή δύο αραιώσεις, χωρίς διαφορά στην κατηγοριοποίηση των αποτελεσμάτων ως ευαίσθητα ή ανθεκτικά. Από τα 313 στελέχη που περιείχαν γονίδια που κωδικοποιούσαν καρβαπενεμάσες, 198 (63,3%) ήταν KPC, 89 (28,4%) ήταν VIM, 17 (5,4%) ήταν NDM-1 και 4 (1,3%) ήταν OXA-48. Πέντε στελέχη έφεραν περισσότερα από ένα γονίδια αντοχής (3 στελέχη είχαν KPC και VIM, 1 KPC και NDM-1 και 1 VIM και NDM-1). Στη συνέχεια, μελετήσαμε την τάση της αντοχής της κολιμυκίνης στο νοσοκομείο μας κατά τη χρονική περίοδο 2002-2016 εφαρμόζοντας την στατιστική ανάλυση γραμμικής παλινδρόμησης (linear regression analysis). Βρήκαμε ότι η αντοχή στην κολιμυκίνη παρουσίασε στατιστικώς σημαντική αυξητική τάση στον χρόνο, από 0% το 2002 σε 26,9% το 2016 [R2 = 0,5, p< 0,01; point estimate of coefficient, 2,97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1,20–4,75; standard error of the slope coefficient, 0,82]. Επιπλέον, παρατηρήθηκε αυξητική τάση στον χρόνο στην χρήση της κολιμυκίνης, από 0,2 DDDs/100 ασθενο-ημέρες το πρώτο τρίμηνο του 2002 σε 7,10 DDDs/100 ασθενο-ημέρες το δεύτερο τρίμηνο του 2016 (R2 = 0,54, p< 0,01; point estimate of coefficient, 0,66, 95% CI 0,49–0,82; standard error of the slope coefficient, 0,08). Τέλος, για να διερευνήσουμε την πιθανή συσχέτιση μεταξύ της αντοχής στην κολιμυκίνη και χρήσης του αντιβιοτικού στο νοσοκομείο μας εφαρμόσαμε την στατιστική μέθοδος ανάλυσης χρονοσειρών (time series analysis). Η συνολική επίπτωση της ανθεκτικής στην κολιμυκίνη K. pneumoniae υπολογίστηκε ότι ήταν 0,37 στελέχη ανά 10.000 ασθενο-ημέρες και η μέση χρήση κολιμυκίνης ανά τρίμηνο ήταν 5,14 DDDs/100 ασθενο-ημέρες. Αφού δημιουργήσαμε τις επιμέρους χρονοσειρές της αντοχής και της χρήσης της κολιμυκίνης χρησιμοποιώντας τη μέθοδο των Box και Jenkins, στη συνέχεια κατασκευάσαμε το μοντέλο γραμμικής συνάρτησης μεταφοράς (linear transfer function model) το οποίο μας έδωσε τη δυνατότητα να ποσοτικοποιήσουμε τη δυναμική συσχέτιση μεταξύ χρήσης κολιμυκίνης και αντοχής στο φάρμακο. Το μοντέλο ανέδειξε την ύπαρξη αυτής της δυναμικής συσχέτισης και συγκεκριμένα, ότι η αύξηση της χρήσης κολιμυκίνης κατά 1 DDD/100 ασθενο-ημέρες οδηγεί σε +0.05 αύξηση της επίπτωσης αντοχής στην κολιμυκίνη. Μάλιστα, η επίδραση της κολιμυκίνης στην αύξηση της αντοχής εμφανίζεται μετά από διάστημα 3 μηνών. Σύμφωνα με το μοντέλο, η χρήση κολιμυκίνης και η προηγούμενη αντοχή στην κολιμυκίνη μπορούν να εξηγήσουν το 69% της αντοχής στην κολιμυκίνη. Άλλοι παράγοντες συμβάλλουν στην ανάπτυξη του υπόλοιπου 31% της αντοχής. Συνοψίζοντας, τα ευρήματά μας μπορούν και πρέπει να αποτελέσουν το σημείο εκκίνησης για την εφαρμογή αυστηρών μέτρων με σκοπό την ελάττωση της αντοχής στην κολιμυκίνη στο νοσοκομείο μας.

C. PENGARUH UTANG LUAR NEGERI DAN EKSPOR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI (Studi pada Produk Domestik Bruto Indonesia Periode 2015-2019)

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 22
Author(s):  
Farah Syahri Maulidiyah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Indonesian Government ◽  
Independent Variable

ABSTRACT The purpose of this research is to analyze the influence of exports and foreign debt which can affect Indonesia's GDP (Gross Domesty Product). The variables of this research are the foreign debt value of the Indonesian government and the value of Indonesian exports as the independent variable, and the value of Indonesia's GDP as the dependent variable. The data used are supporting data for the 2015-2019 period from the time series (time series) of Bank Indonesia and BPS. The data analysis method used multiple linear regression analysis. The results of this study are the value of the Indonesian government's foreign debt and the value of Indonesia's exports have a significant effect. Meanwhile, the results of the partial test (t-test) show that the value of foreign debt and exports of the Indonesian government greatly affects the value of Indonesia's GDP. Keywords : External Debt, Export, Economic Growth (Menggunakan template jurnal sinta 2 JESP (Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan) eISSSN : 2502-7115 l pISSN : 2502-7115 Universitas Negeri Malang).

scholarly journals Pengaruh Suku Bunga, Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) dan Pertumbuhan Kredit terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia

Jurnal Ecogen ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 557
Author(s):  
Putri Yeni ◽  
Syamsul Amar ◽  
Alpon Satrianto
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the influence of interest rates, Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) and credit growth to inflation in Indonesia. This type of research is descriptive research and uses secondary data in the form of time-series from 2007 to 2016 using the method of multiple linear regression analysis. The results of this study indicate that interest rates have a significant and positive effect on inflation in Indonesia. The Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) has a significant and positive effect on inflation in Indonesia. Credit growth has a significant and positive effect on inflation in Indonesia. Based on the results of this study it can be concluded that there is a significant influence between interest rates, Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) and credit growth to inflation in Indonesia. Keyword: Inflation, Interest Rate, Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), Credit Growth

scholarly journals The time series regression analysis in evaluating the economic impact of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 197-210
Author(s):  
Utriweni Mukhaiyar ◽  
Devina Widyanti ◽  
Sandy Vantika
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Transfer Function Model ◽  
Function Model ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to determine the impact of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia on the USD/IDR exchange rate using the Transfer Function Model and Vector Autoregressive Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors (VARMAX) Model. This paper uses daily data on the COVID-19 case in Indonesia, the USD/IDR exchange rate, and the IDX Composite period from 1 March to 29 June 2020. The analysis shows: (1) the higher the increase of the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia will significantly weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate, (2) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia six days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.003%, (3) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia seven days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.17%, and (4) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia eight days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.24%.

Consistency for the least squares estimator in a transfer function model

1984 ◽  
Vol 21 (01) ◽  
pp. 88-97
Author(s):  
Victor Solo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Transfer Function ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Time Series Model ◽  
Least Squares Estimator ◽  
Transfer Function Model ◽  
Function Model ◽  
Mild Conditions ◽  
Function Time

The consistency is developed under mild conditions for the least squares estimator of the parameters of a transfer function time series model.

scholarly journals Comparison of nitric oxide measurements in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere from ACE-FTS, MIPAS, SCIAMACHY, and SMR

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (12) ◽  
pp. 12735-12794 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Bender ◽  
M. Sinnhuber ◽  
T. von Clarmann ◽  
G. Stiller ◽  
B. Funke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nitric Oxide ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Lower Thermosphere ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
Annual Variability ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Mesosphere And Lower Thermosphere

Abstract. We compare the nitric oxide measurements in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (60 to 150 km) from four instruments: ACE-FTS, MIPAS, SCIAMACHY, and SMR. We use the daily zonal mean data in that altitude range for the years 2004–2010 (ACE-FTS), 2005–2012 (MIPAS), 2008–2012 (SCIAMACHY), and 2003–2012 (SMR). We first compare the data qualitatively with respect to the morphology, focussing on the major features, and then compare the time series directly and quantitatively. In three geographical regions, we compare the vertical density profiles on coincident measurement days. Since none of the instruments delivers continuous daily measurements in this altitude region, we carried out a multi-linear regression analysis. This regression analysis considers annual and semi-annual variability in form of harmonic terms and inter-annual variability by responding linearly to the solar Lyman-α radiation index and the geomagnetic Kp index. This analysis helps to find similarities and differences in the individual data sets with respect to the inter-annual variations caused by geomagnetic and solar variability. We find that the data sets are consistent and that they only disagree on minor aspects. SMR and ACE-FTS deliver the longest time series in the mesosphere and they both agree remarkably well. The shorter time series from MIPAS and SCIAMACHY also agree with them where they overlap. The data agree within ten to twenty percent when the number densities are large, but they can differ by 50 to 100% in some cases.

scholarly journals Comparison of nitric oxide measurements in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere from ACE-FTS, MIPAS, SCIAMACHY, and SMR

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 4171-4195 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Bender ◽  
M. Sinnhuber ◽  
T. von Clarmann ◽  
G. Stiller ◽  
B. Funke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nitric Oxide ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Lower Thermosphere ◽  
Michelson Interferometer ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Annual Variability ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Mesosphere And Lower Thermosphere

Abstract. We compare the nitric oxide measurements in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (60 to 150 km) from four instruments: the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment–Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS), the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY), and the Sub-Millimetre Radiometer (SMR). We use the daily zonal mean data in that altitude range for the years 2004–2010 (ACE-FTS), 2005–2012 (MIPAS), 2008–2012 (SCIAMACHY), and 2003–2012 (SMR). We first compare the data qualitatively with respect to the morphology, focussing on the major features, and then compare the time series directly and quantitatively. In three geographical regions, we compare the vertical density profiles on coincident measurement days. Since none of the instruments delivers continuous daily measurements in this altitude region, we carried out a multi-linear regression analysis. This regression analysis considers annual and semi-annual variability in the form of harmonic terms and inter-annual variability by responding linearly to the solar Lyman-α radiation index and the geomagnetic Kp index. This analysis helps to find similarities and differences in the individual data sets with respect to the inter-annual variations caused by geomagnetic and solar variability. We find that the data sets are consistent and that they only disagree on minor aspects. SMR and ACE-FTS deliver the longest time series in the mesosphere, and they agree with each other remarkably well. The shorter time series from MIPAS and SCIAMACHY also agree with them where they overlap. The data agree within 30 % when the number densities are large, but they can differ by 50 to 100 % in some cases.

scholarly journals Cephalometric Floating Norms as a Guide toward a Harmonious Individual Craniofacial Pattern among Filipinos

2009 ◽  
Vol 79 (6) ◽  
pp. 1162-1168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marian Almyra Sevilla-Naranjilla ◽  
Ingrid Rudzki-Janson
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Regression Analysis ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Standard Error ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Correlated Variables ◽  
The Individual

Abstract Objective: To construct a harmony box based on correlated cephalometric variables, which may serve as a valuable diagnostic tool in orthodontic treatment planning, by analyzing the harmonious relationships of existing individual craniofacial patterns among Filipinos. Materials and Methods: Eighty-one subjects, 37 females and 44 males, were selected from the student population of a University according to established inclusion criteria. Five cephalometric angular measurements were obtained and digitized. Pearson correlation coefficients described the high association among the five variables. The bivariate linear regression analysis was used to construct a harmony box, which contained the cephalometric floating norms of the five correlated variables. Multiple regression analysis and the standard error of the estimate were calculated to construct the harmony schema, which describes the individual craniofacial pattern. Results: Correlations between the five variables were significant at .001 and .05 levels. Linear regression equations with corresponding r2 and standard error of the estimate (SE) were illustrated as the harmony box. The multiple correlation coefficient R, the adjusted R2, and the SE when one of the five measured variables was predicted from the remaining four by means of a multiple regression analysis were displayed as the harmony schema. Conclusion: The cephalometric floating norms describing the individual craniofacial pattern among Filipinos were established based on five correlated variables in the form of a harmony box.

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