scholarly journals Flood hazard and risk modelling framework for ungauged streams and watersheds

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Γεώργιος Παπαϊωάννου
Keyword(s):  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Risk Modelling ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Hazard And Risk

Στην παρούσα διδακτορική διατριβή παρουσιάζεται μια ολιστική προσέγγιση για την εκτίμηση και χαρτογράφηση των πλημμυρών σε λεκάνες απορροής και χειμάρρους με ελλιπή ή ανύπαρκτα μετεωρολογικά και υδρομετρικά δεδομένα. Η παρούσα έρευνα αποδεικνύει ότι η χρήση κλασσικών τεχνικών και μεθόδων για την διερεύνηση του φαινομένου της πλημμύρας μπορεί να συντελέσει στην δημιουργία ενός έγκυρου και αποτελεσματικού πλαισίου προσομοίωσης για την εκτίμηση πλημμυρικού κινδύνου και επικινδυνότητας σε χειμαρρικά υδατορρεύματα και υδρολογικές λεκάνες με ελλιπή δεδομένα. Τα τρία συστήματα που πλαισιώνουν το ενιαίο μεθοδολογικό πλαίσιο έχουν ως στόχο την 1) εκτίμηση και την χαρτογράφηση πιθανών περιοχών πλημμυρικής κατάκλισης, 2) εκτίμηση και ποσοτικοποίηση της ευαισθησίας και της αβεβαιότητας συγκεκριμένων παραμέτρων στην διαδικασία της μοντελοποίησης πλημμύρας. Επομένως, το προτεινόμενο μεθοδολογικό πλαίσιο ή ξεχωριστά τα επιμέρους συστήματα μπορούν να αποτελέσουν πολύτιμα εργαλεία για τους ιθύνοντες αποφάσεων με στόχο την παραγωγή έγκυρων και υψηλής ακρίβειας σχεδίων διαχείρισης πλημμυρικού κινδύνου και επικινδυνότητας σε λεκάνες απορροής και χειμάρρους με ελλιπή δεδομένα.

Pairwise Elicitation for a Decision Support Framework to Develop a Flood Risk Response Plan

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
MiguelAndres Guerra ◽  
Yekenalem Abebe
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Addis Ababa ◽  
Pairwise Comparison ◽  
Multicriteria Decision Making ◽  
Risk Response ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Response Plan ◽  
Decision Making Framework

There are several ways of quantifying flood hazard. When the scale of the analysis is large, flood hazard simulation for an entire city becomes costly and complicated. The first part of this paper proposes utilizing experience and knowledge of local experts about flood characteristics in the area in order to come up with a first-level flood hazard and risk zoning maps, by implementing overlay operations in Arc GIS. In this step, the authors use the concept of pairwise comparison to eliminate the need for carrying out a complicated simulation to quantify flood hazard and risk. The process begins with identifying the main factors that contribute to flooding in a particular area. Pairwise comparison was used to elicit knowledge from local experts and assigned weights for each factor to reflect their relative importance toward flood hazard and risk. In the second part of this paper, the authors present a decision-making framework to support a flood risk response plan. Once the highest risk zones have been identified, a city can develop a risk response plan, for which this paper presents a decision-making framework to select an effective set of alternatives. The framework integrates tools from multicriteria decision-making, charrette design process to guide the pairwise elicitation, and a cost-effective analysis to include the limited budget constraint for any city. The theoretical framework uses the city of Addis Ababa for the first part of the paper. For the second part, the paper utilizes a hypothetical case of Addis Ababa and a mock city infrastructure department to illustrate the implementation of the framework.

scholarly journals Simulation of flood hazard and risk in the Danube basin with the Future Danube Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
pp. 14-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fred F. Hattermann ◽  
Michel Wortmann ◽  
Stefan Liersch ◽  
Ralf Toumi ◽  
Nathan Sparks ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Danube Basin ◽  
The Future ◽  
Hazard And Risk

scholarly journals Heterogeneous individual risk modelling of recurrent events

Biometrika ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huijuan Ma ◽  
Limin Peng ◽  
Chiung-Yu Huang ◽  
Haoda Fu
Keyword(s):  
Recurrent Events ◽  
Asymptotic Properties ◽  
Dynamic Modelling ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Simulation Studies ◽  
Finite Sample ◽  
Risk Modelling ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Proposed Model

Summary Progression of chronic disease is often manifested by repeated occurrences of disease-related events over time. Delineating the heterogeneity in the risk of such recurrent events can provide valuable scientific insight for guiding customized disease management. We propose a new sensible measure of individual risk of recurrent events and present a dynamic modelling framework thereof, which accounts for both observed covariates and unobservable frailty. The proposed modelling requires no distributional specification of the unobservable frailty, while permitting exploration of the dynamic effects of the observed covariates. We develop estimation and inference procedures for the proposed model through a novel adaptation of the principle of conditional score. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator, including the uniform consistency and weak convergence, are established. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate satisfactory finite-sample performance of the proposed method. We illustrate the practical utility of the new method via an application to a diabetes clinical trial that explores the risk patterns of hypoglycemia in type 2 diabetes patients.

Improving the robustness of flood catastrophe models in insurance through academia-industry collaboration

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valentina Noacco ◽  
Francesca Pianosi ◽  
Thorsten Wagener ◽  
Kirsty Styles ◽  
Stephen Hutchings
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Structural Uncertainty ◽  
Probability Curve ◽  
Data Limitations ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
University Of Bristol

<p>To quantify risk from natural hazards and ensure a robust decision-making process in the insurance industry, uncertainties in the mathematical models that underpin decisions need to be efficiently and robustly captured. The complexity and sheer scale of the mathematical modelling often makes a comprehensive, transparent and easily communicable understanding of the uncertainties very difficult.  Models predicting flood hazard and risk have shown high levels of uncertainty in their predictions due to data limitations and model structural uncertainty. Moreover, uncertainties are estimated to increase with climate change, especially for higher warming levels.</p><p>Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) provides a structured approach to quantify and compare the relative importance of parameter, data and structural uncertainty. GSA has been implemented successfully in tools such as the Sensitivity Analysis For Everybody (SAFE) toolbox, which is currently used by more than 2000 researchers worldwide. However, tailored tools, workflows and case studies are needed to demonstrate GSA benefits to practitioners and accelerate its uptake by the insurance industry.</p><p>One such case study has been the collaboration between the University of Bristol and JBA Risk Management on JBA’s new Global Flood Model, whose technology and flexibility has allowed to test a catastrophe model in ways not possible in the past. JBA has gained great insight into the sensitivity of modelled losses to uncertainties in the model datasets and analysis options. This has helped to explore the key sensitivities of the results to the assumptions made, for example to visualise how the distribution of modelled losses varies by return period and explore which parameters have the biggest impact on loss for the part of the Exceedance-Probability curve of interest. This information is essential for insurance companies to form their view of risk and to empower model users to adequately communicate uncertainties to decision-makers.</p>

scholarly journals Review Article: Validation of flood risk models: current practice and innovations

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Molinari ◽  
Karin De Bruijn ◽  
Jessica Castillo ◽  
Giuseppe T. Aronica ◽  
Laurens M. Bouwer
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Risk Modelling ◽  
Risk Estimates ◽  
Models Validation ◽  
Benchmark Solutions ◽  
Research Recommendations

Abstract. Although often neglected, model validation is a key topic in flood risk analysis, as flood risk estimates are characterised by significant levels of uncertainty. In this paper, we discuss the state of art of flood risk models validation, as concluded from the discussion among more than 50 experts at two main scientific events. The events aimed at identifying policy and research recommendations towards promoting more common practice of validation, and an improvement of flood risk models reliability. We pay specific attention to the different components of the risk modelling chain (i.e. flood hazard, defence failure and flood damage analysis) as well as to their role into risk estimates, to highlight specificities and commonalities with respect to implemented techniques and research needs. The main conclusions from this review can be summarised as the need of higher quality data to perform validation and of benchmark solutions to be followed in different contexts, along with a greater involvement of end-users in the debate on flood risk models validation.

scholarly journals Index-based flood risk assessment for Metro Manila

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 851-859 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. J. Rubio ◽  
I. S. Yu ◽  
H. Y. Kim ◽  
S. M. Jeong
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Disaster Insurance ◽  
Metro Manila ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Populated Region

Abstract This study focuses on index-based flood risk assessment in Metro Manila, the capital region of the Philippines and most densely populated region in the country. Its objective is to properly address urban characteristics in flood risk assessment by introducing a specific urban-type set of physical, social, economic and ecological indicators. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was used to quantify the optimal selection weights for each of the selected 14 indicators. Five levels of flood risk will be presented in spatial maps using geographic information system (GIS) ranging from Very Low Risk to Very High Risk. Results of this study are expected to aid in understanding flood hazard and risk in Metro Manila. Moreover, the resulting flood risk information can be used as a decision tool in policy making, land-use planning, developing guidelines and countermeasures and flood disaster insurance.

An Assessment of Flood Hazard and Risk Zoning in the Lower Nam Phong River Basin, Thailand

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (7) ◽  
pp. 1147
Author(s):  
Kittiwet Kuntiyawichai ◽  
Quan Van Dau ◽  
Winai Sri-Amporn ◽  
Fransiscus Xaverius Suryadi
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Risk Zoning ◽  
Hazard And Risk
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