Research on the Prediction Model of Shrinking Cities Based on Data Envelopment Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 09 (05) ◽  
pp. 722-727
Author(s):  
纯帅 李
Author(s):  
Ignacio Revuelta ◽  
Francisco J. Santos-Arteaga ◽  
Enrique Montagud-Marrahi ◽  
Pedro Ventura-Aguiar ◽  
Debora Di Caprio ◽  
...  

AbstractIn an overwhelming demand scenario, such as the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, pressure over health systems may outburst their predicted capacity to deal with such extreme situations. Therefore, in order to successfully face a health emergency, scientific evidence and validated models are needed to provide real-time information that could be applied by any health center, especially for high-risk populations, such as transplant recipients. We have developed a hybrid prediction model whose accuracy relative to several alternative configurations has been validated through a battery of clustering techniques. Using hospital admission data from a cohort of hospitalized transplant patients, our hybrid Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)—Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model extrapolates the progression towards severe COVID-19 disease with an accuracy of 96.3%, outperforming any competing model, such as logistic regression (65.5%) and random forest (44.8%). In this regard, DEA-ANN allows us to categorize the evolution of patients through the values of the analyses performed at hospital admission. Our prediction model may help guiding COVID-19 management through the identification of key predictors that permit a sustainable management of resources in a patient-centered model.


1997 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 332-333 ◽  
Author(s):  
A Charnes ◽  
W Cooper ◽  
A Y Lewin ◽  
L M Seiford

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