scholarly journals Do Credit Market Shocks Affect the Real Economy? Quasi-experimental Evidence from the Great Recession and “Normal” Economic Times

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 200-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Greenstone ◽  
Alexandre Mas ◽  
Hoai-Luu Nguyen

Using comprehensive data on bank lending and establishment-level outcomes from 1997–2010, this paper finds that small business lending is an unimportant determinant of small business and overall economic activity. A shift-share style research design is implemented to predict county-level lending shocks using variation in preexisting bank market shares and bank supply shifts. Counties with negative predicted lending shocks experienced declines in small business loan originations, indicating that it is costly to switch lenders. However, small business loan originations have an economically insignificant and generally statistically insignificant impact on both small firm and overall employment during the Great Recession and normal times. (JEL E32, E44, E52, G21, G32, L25)

Author(s):  
Ann Marie Wiersch ◽  
Scott Shane

Since the Great Recession, bank lending to small businesses has fallen significantly, and policymakers have become concerned that these businesses are not getting the credit they need. Many reasons have been suggested for the decline. Our analysis shows that it has multiple sources, which means that trying to address any single factor may be ineffective or make matters worse. Any intervention should take all of the many causes of the decline in small business lending into consideration.


2021 ◽  
Vol 90 (2) ◽  
pp. 67-80
Author(s):  
Andreas Bley ◽  
Martin Micheli

Kleine und mittlere Unternehmen in Deutschland haben auch während der Coronapandemie einen sehr guten Zugang zur Kreditfinanzierung. Hierauf deuten sowohl Umfragen unter Unternehmen als auch unter Banken hin. Der sehr gute Kreditzugang manifestiert sich in einem kräftigen Kreditwachstum während der Krise. Insbesondere die genossenschaftliche Kreditvergabe wächst seit vielen Jahren, auch während Rezessionen, mit robusten Raten. Im Rahmen eines Ungleichgewichtsmodells zeigen wir, dass die Kreditvergabe genossenschaftlicher Banken in der Coronapandemie durch die Nachfrage bestimmt wurde. Es gibt keine Anzeichen für angebotsseitige Beschränkungen der genossenschaftlichen Kreditvergabe. German small and medium corporations had sufficiently access to bank loans during the Corona Pandemic. This is the result of surveys conducted among corporations and banks. A strong growth of bank loans points at generous credit provisions by German banks. Especially bank lending by cooperative banks has been remarkably robust in recent years and has expanded during the Great Recession as well as the European Debt Crisis. In a disequilibrium model, we show that cooperative banks’ loan volumes during the Corona Pandemic have been determined by the demand side. There is no evidence for supply side restrictions.


Author(s):  
Lindsay A. Owens ◽  
Karen S. Cook

The effects of recessions on social and political attitudes are likely smaller than the effects on employment, income, and wealth, but relatively modest aggregate effects may be masking differences in attitudes between individuals who live in areas most and least affected by recessions. To investigate social and political attitudes in geographical context, we exploit a new data source that matches individuals to their county of residence to analyze whether changing economic conditions at the county level are associated with changing confidence in major social institutions and with changing levels of interpersonal trust. We find that individuals in particularly affected counties are more likely to decrease their support for organized labor and the federal government. County-level hardship does not appear to be associated with changes in interpersonal measures of trust, however, suggesting that two very different processes may be at play.


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