scholarly journals Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from US Agriculture

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 106-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marshall Burke ◽  
Kyle Emerick
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Knowing How ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Precipitation Trends ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on economic outcomes requires knowing how agents might adapt to a changing climate. We exploit large variation in recent temperature and precipitation trends to identify adaptation to climate change in US agriculture, and use this information to generate new estimates of the potential impact of future climate change on agricultural outcomes. Longer run adaptations appear to have mitigated less than half—and more likely none—of the large negative short-run impacts of extreme heat on productivity. Limited recent adaptation implies substantial losses under future climate change in the absence of countervailing investments. (JEL Q11, Q15, Q51, Q54)

Projecting future vegetation change for northeast China using CMIP6

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Yuan ◽  
Shuang-ye Wu ◽  
Shugui Hou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Changes ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

<p>This study aims to establish future vegetation changes in the east and central of northern China (ECNC), an ecologically sensitive region in the transition zonal from humid monsoonal to arid continental climate. The region has experienced significant greening in the past several decades. However, few studies exist on how vegetation will change with future climate change, and great uncertainties exist due to complex, and often spatially non-stationary, relationships between vegetation and climate. In this study, we first used historical NDVI and climate data to model this spatially variable relationship with Geographically Weighted Logit Regression. We found that temperature and precipitation could explain, on average, 43% of NDVI variance, and they could be used to model NDVI fairly well. We then establish future climate change using the output of 11 CMIP6 models for the medium (SSP245) and high (SSP585) emission scenarios for the mid-century (2041-2070) and late-century (2071-2100). The results show that for this region, both temperature and precipitation will increase under both scenarios. By late-century under SSP585, precipitation is projected to increase by 25.12% and temperature is projected to increase 5.87<sup>o</sup>C in ECNC. Finally, we used future climate conditions as input for the regression models to project future vegetation (indicated by NDVI). We found that NDVI will increase under climate change. By mid-century, the average NDVI in ECNC will increase by 0.024 and 0.021 under SSP245 and SSP585. By late-century, it will increase by 0.016 and 0.006 under SSP245 and SSP585 respectively. Although NDVI is projected to increase, the magnitude of increase is likely to diminish with higher emission scenarios, possibly due to the benefit of precipitation increase being gradually encroached by the detrimental effects of temperature increase. Moreover, despite the overall NDVI increase, the area likely to suffer vegetation degradation will also expands, particularly in the western part of ECNC. With higher emissions and later into the century, region with low NDVI is likely to shift and/or expand north-forward. Our results could provide important information on possible vegetation changes, which could help to develop effective management strategies to ensure ecological and economic sustainability in the future.</p>

CERES-Rice model-based simulations of climate change impacts on rice yields and efficacy of adaptive options in Northeast China

2014 ◽  
Vol 65 (12) ◽  
pp. 1267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenxiang Wu ◽  
Qian Fang ◽  
Quansheng Ge ◽  
Mengzi Zhou ◽  
Yumei Lin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Adaptive Strategies ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Rice Cultivars ◽  
Rice Yields ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Global temperatures are rising, and concerns about the response of agricultural production to climate change are increasing. Adaptation is a key factor that will shape the severity of impacts of future climate change on food production. Based on actual meteorological, soil and agricultural management data at site scale, the CERES-Rice model, combined with the Regional Climate Model (RCM)-PRECIS, was used to simulate both the effects of climate change on rice yields and the efficacy of adaptive options in Northeast China. The impact simulation showed that rice yield changes ranged from +0.1% to –44.9% (A2 scenario) and from –0.3% to –40.1% (B2 scenario) without considering CO2 fertilisation effects. When considering CO2 fertilisation effects, rice yield reductions induced by temperature increases were decreased at all sites. The CO2 fertilisation effects may partly offset the negative impacts of climate change on rice yields. Adaptive option results revealed that the adverse impacts of climate change on rice yields could be mitigated by advancing the planting dates, transplanting mid–late-maturing rice cultivars to replace early-maturing ones, and breeding new rice cultivars with high thermal requirements. Our findings provide insight into the possible impacts of climate change on rice production, and we suggest which adaptive strategies could be used to cope with future climate change, thus providing evidence-based suggestions for government policy on adaptive strategies.

scholarly journals Global cotton production under climate change – Implications for yield and water consumption

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yvonne Jans ◽  
Werner von Bloh ◽  
Sibyll Schaphoff ◽  
Christoph Müller
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Consumption ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
The Other ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Cotton Production ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Being an extensively produced natural fiber on earth, cotton is of importance for economies. Although the plant is broadly adapted to varying environments, growth and irrigation water demand of cotton may be challenged by future climate change. To study the impacts of climate change on cotton productivity in different regions across the world and the irrigation water requirements related to it, we use the process-based, spatially detailed biosphere and hydrology model LPJmL. We find our modelled cotton yield levels in good agreement with reported values and simulated water consumption of cotton production similar to published estimates. Following the ISIMIP protocol, we employ an ensemble of five General Circulation Models under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for the 2011–2099 period to simulate future cotton yields. We find that irrigated cotton production does not suffer from climate change if CO2 effects are considered, whereas rainfed production is more sensitive to varying climate conditions. Considering the overall effect of a changing climate and CO2 fertilization, cotton production on current cropland steadily increases for most of the RCPs. Starting from ~ 65 million tonnes in 2010, cotton production for RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 equates to 83 and 92 million tonnes at the end of the century, respectively. Under RCP8.5, simulated global cotton production raises by more than 50 % by 2099. Taking only climate change into account, projected cotton production considerably shrinks in most scenarios, by up to one-third or 43 million tonnes under RCP8.5. The simulation of future virtual water content (VWC) of cotton grown under elevated CO2 results for all scenarios in less VWC compared to ambient CO2 conditions. Under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, VWC is notably decreased by more than 2000 m3 t−1 in areas where cotton is produced under purely rainfed conditions. By 2040, the average global VWC for cotton declines in all scenarios from currently 3300 to 3000 m3 t−1 and reduction continues by up to 30 % in 2100 under RCP8.5. While the VWC decreases by the CO2 effect, elevated temperature (and thus water stress) reverse the picture. Except for RCP2.6, the global VWC of cotton increase slightly but steadily under the other RCPs until mid century. RCP8.5 results in an average global VWC of more than 5000 m3 t−1 by end of the simulation period. Given the economic relevance of cotton production, climate change poses an additional stress and deserves special attention. Changes in VWC and water demands for cotton production are of special importance, as cotton production is known for its intense water consumption that led, e.g., to the loss of most of the Aral sea. The implications of climate impacts on cotton production on the one hand, and the impact of cotton production on water resources on the other hand illustrate the need to assess how future climate change may affect cotton production and its resource requirements. The inclusion of cotton in LPJmL allows for various large-scale studies to assess impacts of climate change on hydrological factors and the implications for agricultural production and carbon sequestration.

scholarly journals Shifts in the abiotic and biotic environment of cultivated sunflower under future climate change

OCL ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Zia Mehrabi ◽  
Samuel Pironon ◽  
Michael Kantar ◽  
Navin Ramankutty ◽  
Loren Rieseberg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Wild Relatives ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Initial Assessment ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Sunflower Crop ◽  
Climate Space ◽  
Biotic Environment

Sunflower is a unique model species for assessing crop responses and adaptation to climate change. We provide an initial assessment of how climate change may influence the abiotic and biotic environment of cultivated sunflower across the world. We find an 8% shift between current and future climate space in cultivated sunflower locations globally, and a 48% shift in Northern America, where the crop originates. Globally, the current niche occupied by sunflower crop wild relatives offer few opportunities to adapt to future climate for cultivated sunflower, but in Northern America 100% of the future climate space of cultivated sunflower is filled by the niche of primary wild relative germplasm alone (e.g. wild Helianthus annuus). Globally, we find little difference in the overlap between current and future climate space of cultivated sunflower with the niche of the important sunflower pathogen Sclerotinia sclerotiorum, but in Northern America, climate change will decrease the overlap between local populations of this pest and cultivated sunflower by 38%. Our analysis highlights the utility of multi-scale analysis for identifying candidate taxa for breeding efforts and for understanding how future climate will shift the abiotic and biotic environment of cultivated crops.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Temperature and Precipitation Over India

2021 ◽  
pp. 121-142
Author(s):  
Sridhara Nayak ◽  
Tetsuya Takemi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Humid Climate ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Annual Cycles ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Future

AbstractThis study explores a comprehensive assessment of future climate change in terms of the climatologies, distribution patterns, annual cycles, and frequency distributions of temperature and precipitation over India by analyzing 190 mega-ensemble experimental results. The results indicate that the annual mean surface temperatures over Indian regions are typically 25 ℃ or higher in the present climate (1951–2010) and are expected to increase by 3–5 ℃ in the future climate (2051–2110). Some desert regions in the west and tropical humid climate types in the central and south regions of the country show possible temperature increases of 4–5 ℃, while the temperatures over the subtropical humid climates in the north and east regions of the country show increases of 3–4 ℃. The precipitation amounts over the arid and semiarid climate types in the western region and over some tropical rainforest climate zones in the southwest region show increases of 0.5 mm d−1 in the future climate, and the precipitation amounts over the temperate, rainy climate types in the northeast region show increases of more than 1 mm d−1. This study also discusses future changes in various climatic variables, including vertical velocity, air temperature, specific humidity, cloud cover, and relative humidity.

scholarly journals Quantification of hydrologic impacts of climate change in a Mediterranean basin in Sardinia, Italy, through high-resolution simulations

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 5201-5217 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Piras ◽  
G. Mascaro ◽  
R. Deidda ◽  
E. R. Vivoni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
Hydrologic Impacts ◽  
Generation Mechanisms ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Future climate projections robustly indicate that the Mediterranean region will experience a significant decrease of mean annual precipitation and an increase in temperature. These changes are expected to seriously affect the hydrologic regime, with a limitation of water availability and an intensification of hydrologic extremes, and to negatively impact local economies. In this study, we quantify the hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Rio Mannu basin (RMB), an agricultural watershed of 472.5 km2 in Sardinia, Italy. To simulate the wide range of runoff generation mechanisms typical of Mediterranean basins, we adopted a physically based, distributed hydrologic model. The high-resolution forcings in reference and future conditions (30-year records for each period) were provided by four combinations of global and regional climate models, bias-corrected and downscaled in space and time (from ~25 km, 24 h to 5 km, 1 h) through statistical tools. The analysis of the hydrologic model outputs indicates that the RMB is expected to be severely impacted by future climate change. The range of simulations consistently predict (i) a significant diminution of mean annual runoff at the basin outlet, mainly due to a decreasing contribution of the runoff generation mechanisms depending on water available in the soil; (ii) modest variations in mean annual runoff and intensification of mean annual discharge maxima in flatter sub-basins with clay and loamy soils, likely due to a higher occurrence of infiltration excess runoff; (iii) reduction of soil water content and actual evapotranspiration in most areas of the basin; and (iv) a drop in the groundwater table. Results of this study are useful to support the adoption of adaptive strategies for management and planning of agricultural activities and water resources in the region.

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