The Times They Are A-Changing: Experimenting with Dynamic Adverse Selection

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Felipe A. Araujo ◽  
Stephanie W. Wang ◽  
Alistair J. Wilson

We examine a common value dynamic matching environment where adverse selection accrues slowly over time. Theoretical best responses are therefore time varying, and the prior experimental literature suggests that sequential environments might lead to greater understanding of adverse selection in this dynamic setting. However, while a sophisticated minority in our experiment do condition on time and are close to a best response, the majority use a stationary response, even after extended experience. In an environment with persistent uncertainty, our results indicate that sequentiality is insufficient for the large majority of participants to recognize the effects of adverse selection. (JEL C78, C92, D82, D91)

2018 ◽  
Vol 08 (03) ◽  
pp. 1850010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jon Faust ◽  
Jonathan H. Wright

Financial asset risk premia are widely agreed to vary over time. This paper decomposes these risk premia into expected excess returns earned in short windows around the times of macroeconomic news announcements (which mostly come out at 8:30[Formula: see text]am) and the expected excess returns that are earned at other times. Using intradaily data, we find that some, but not all, of the time-varying expected excess returns accrue right around macroeconomic announcements. In forecasting six-month cumulative bond returns, there is more predictability in announcement windows than at other times.


Author(s):  
José Novoa ◽  
Jorge Wuth ◽  
Juan Pablo Escudero ◽  
Josué Fredes ◽  
Rodrigo Mahu ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 1322-1334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip E. Pare ◽  
Carolyn L. Beck ◽  
Angelia Nedic

2021 ◽  
pp. 095679762097055
Author(s):  
Catriona Silvey ◽  
Özlem Ece Demir-Lira ◽  
Susan Goldin-Meadow ◽  
Stephen W. Raudenbush

Early linguistic input is a powerful predictor of children’s language outcomes. We investigated two novel questions about this relationship: Does the impact of language input vary over time, and does the impact of time-varying language input on child outcomes differ for vocabulary and for syntax? Using methods from epidemiology to account for baseline and time-varying confounding, we predicted 64 children’s outcomes on standardized tests of vocabulary and syntax in kindergarten from their parents’ vocabulary and syntax input when the children were 14 and 30 months old. For vocabulary, children whose parents provided diverse input earlier as well as later in development were predicted to have the highest outcomes. For syntax, children whose parents’ input substantially increased in syntactic complexity over time were predicted to have the highest outcomes. The optimal sequence of parents’ linguistic input for supporting children’s language acquisition thus varies for vocabulary and for syntax.


2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesc Dilmé ◽  
Fei Li

We study the role of dropout risk in dynamic signaling. A seller privately knows the quality of an indivisible good and decides when to trade. In each period, he may draw a dropout shock that forces him to trade immediately. To avoid costly delay, the seller with a low-quality good voluntarily pools with early dropouts, implying that the expected quality of the good increases over time. We characterize the time-varying equilibrium trading dynamics. It is demonstrated that the maximum equilibrium delay of trade is decreasing in the initial belief that the good is of high quality. (JEL C73, D82, D83)


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