scholarly journals Group Polarization in a Model of Information Aggregation

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 202-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Roux ◽  
Joel Sobel
Keyword(s):  
Information Aggregation ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Problems ◽  
Rational Decision ◽  
Group Polarization ◽  
Statistical Decision ◽  
Empirical Regularity

Experiments identify the empirical regularity that groups tend to make decisions that are more extreme, but in the same direction as the tendency of individual members of the group. We present a model of information aggregation consistent with these findings. We assume individuals and groups are rational decision makers facing monotone statistical decision problems where groups and individuals have common preferences, but groups have superior information. We provide conditions under which the distribution of the optimal actions of the group is more variable than the distribution of actions taken by individuals. (JEL D71, D83)

Method for Selecting Storage Enterprises Based on IFHA

2015 ◽  
Vol 713-715 ◽  
pp. 1769-1772
Author(s):  
Jie Wu ◽  
Lei Na Zheng ◽  
Tie Jun Pan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Problems ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Final Decision ◽  
Multiple Decision Makers ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy ◽  
Averaging Operator

In order to reflect the decision-making more scientific and democratic, modern decision problems often require the participation of multiple decision makers. In group decision making process,require the use of intuitionistic fuzzy hybrid averaging operator (IFHA) to get the final decision result.

scholarly journals Application of Combinatorial Techniques to the Ghanaian Board Game Zaminamina Draft

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 159-175
Author(s):  
Elvis Kobina Donkoh ◽  
Rebecca Davis ◽  
Emmanuel D.J Owusu-Ansah ◽  
Emmanuel A. Antwi ◽  
Michael Mensah
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Board Game ◽  
Rational Decision ◽  
Way Of Life ◽  
Mathematical Technique ◽  
Contemporary Culture ◽  
Conflict And Cooperation ◽  
The Matrix

Games happen to be a part of our contemporary culture and way of life. Often mathematical models of conflict and cooperation between intelligent rational decision-makers are studied in these games. Example is the African board game ’Zaminamina draft’ which is often guided by combinatorial strategies and techniques for winning. In this paper we deduce an intelligent mathematical technique for playing a winning game. Two different starting strategies were formulated; center starting and edge or vertex starting. The results were distorted into a 3x3 matrix and elementary row operations were performed to establish all possible wins. MatLab was used to distort the matrix to determine the diagonal wins. A program was written using python in artificial intelligence (AI) to help in playing optimally

Slow Learning in the Market fopr Lemons

2011 ◽  
pp. 149-160 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Feltovich
Keyword(s):  
Asymmetric Information ◽  
Reference Point ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Problems ◽  
Winner's Curse ◽  
Point Model ◽  
Optimal Amount ◽  
Winner’S Curse ◽  
Human Participants ◽  
Slow Learning

Human-participants experiments using markets with asymmetric information typically exhibit a “winner’s curse,” wherein bidders systematically bid more than their optimal amount. The winner’s curse is very persistent; even when participants are able to make decisions repeatedly in the same situation, they repeatedly overbid. Why do people keep making the same mistakes over and over again? In this chapter, we consider a class of one-player decision problems, which generalize Akerlof’s (1970) market-for-lemons model. We show that if decision makers learn via reinforcement, specifically by the reference point model of Erev and Roth (1996), their behavior typically changes very slowly, and persistent mistakes are likely. We also develop testable predictions regarding when individuals ought to be able to learn more quickly.

scholarly journals Assessing the efficiency and the criticality of the elements belonging to a complex territorial system subject to natural hazards

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Minciardi ◽  
R. Sacile ◽  
E. Trasforini
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Management ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
External Stress ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Problems ◽  
Natural Phenomenon ◽  
Physical Vulnerability ◽  
Natural Risk ◽  
Service Demand

Abstract. The effects of natural hazards can be mitigated by the use of proper "pre-event" interventions on "key" elements of the territory, that is on elements that are mostly vulnerable to a given catastrophic scenario and whose loss of functionality can cause damages on people, property and environment. In this respect, methodologies and tools should be studied to support decision makers in the analysis of a territory, in order to point out such elements. In this work, vulnerability is taken into account under two aspects: "physical vulnerability", which measures the propensity of a territorial element to suffer damage when subject to an external stress corresponding to the occurrence of a natural phenomenon; "functional vulnerability", which measures the propensity of a territorial element to suffer loss in functionality, even when that is caused by the loss of functionality of other territorial elements. In the proposed modeling approach, vulnerability is represented through the use of a graph-based formalization. A territorial system is represented as a complex set of elements or sub-systems. Such elements have differentiated and dedicated functions, and they may be functionally interconnected among them. In addition, vulnerability is defined through the use of two different variables, namely the criticality and the efficiency. Focusing the attention on the temporal phases corresponding to the occurrence of a calamitous event, the first one measures the service demand of an element, whereas the efficiency is a measure of the service that can be offered by such an element. The approach presented is largely independent from the natural risk considered. Besides, the tools introduced for the vulnerability analysis of the territorial system can also be used to formalize decision problems relevant to the location of the available resources for emergency management. A specific case study pertaining to the hydrological risk in the Val di Vara area (Italy) is presented.

Simple Strategies or Simple Tasks? Dynamic Decision Making in “Complex” Worlds

1996 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 184-188
Author(s):  
Alex Kirlik ◽  
Ling Rothrock ◽  
Neff Walker ◽  
Arthur D. Fisk
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Time Pressure ◽  
Task Complexity ◽  
Empirical Finding ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Dynamic Decision Making ◽  
Decision Problems ◽  
Decision Strategies

Decision makers in operational environments perform in a world of dynamism, time pressure, and uncertainty. Perhaps the most stable empirical finding to emerge from naturalistic studies in these domains is that, despite apparent task complexity, performers only rarely report the use of complex, enumerative decision strategies. If we accept that decision making in these domains is often effective, we are presented with a dilemma: either decision strategies are (covertly) more complex than these performers claim, or these tasks are (subtlely) more simple than they might appear. We present a set of empirical findings and modeling results which suggest the latter explanation: that the simplicity of decision making is not merely apparent but largely real, and that tasks of high apparent complexity may yet admit to rather simple types of decision strategies. We also discuss empirical evidence that sheds light on the error forms resulting from the tendency of performers to seek and employ heuristic solutions to dynamic, uncertain decision problems.

The Risk in Management Activity of a Company for Machine Building

2014 ◽  
Vol 656 ◽  
pp. 561-568
Author(s):  
Costel Ceocea ◽  
Luminita Bibire ◽  
Adrian Stelian Ghenadi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Maker ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Machine Building ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Problems ◽  
Partial Knowledge ◽  
Practical Application ◽  
Management Activity ◽  
A Company ◽  
Comprehensive Study

One of the major functions of management, it is the foresight and management of action, in terms of knowledge of risks. In practical decision problems, the decision maker-the manager, is forced to make decisions in conditions of approximate partial knowledge of data necessary to determine the exact consequences of the decision. After the decision is taken, some uncertainty (uncertainty) remains, regarding achieve expected results.The practical application, carried out in S.C. "Mecanica Ceahlău" S.A, aims to demonstrate the complexity of risks categories faced by an organization operating in the manufacturing sector. The paper also illustrates how you can apply different methods to identify and analyze the risks, providing decision makers a comprehensive study and useful for maximizing the value of the organization.

A Normalized Numerical Scaling Method for the Unbalanced Multi-Granular Linguistic Sets

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (02) ◽  
pp. 221-243 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baoli Wang ◽  
Jiye Liang ◽  
Yuhua Qian ◽  
Chuangyin Dang
Keyword(s):  
Piecewise Linear ◽  
Linear Interpolation ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Problems ◽  
Scaling Functions ◽  
Linguistic Terms ◽  
Scaling Method ◽  
Piecewise Linear Interpolation ◽  
Transformation Functions

Decision makers often express their evaluations on decision problems with multi-granular linguistic terms. This fact leads to the unification of the multi-granular linguistic terms into a single linguistic set in the literature. However, this unification process increases the complexity of computation and the subjectivity in the determination of transformation functions. To overcome this deficiency, this paper aims to develop a normalized numerical scaling method for determining the semantics of multi-granular linguistic terms in the same domain. We first introduce a class of numerical scaling functions to generate several balanced or unbalanced linguistic sets. Since these scaled linguistic sets have different domains, we then develop a normalized numerical scaling method to form them into the unique interval [0,1]. As a result of this development, two classes of normalized scaling functions are derived from the priori scale information and applications of piecewise linear interpolation and piecewise arc interpolation. Finally, an example is given to illustrate how the method works.

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