scholarly journals The Effect of Consumer Sentiment on Consumption: Cross-Sectional Evidence from Elections

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 234-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Gillitzer ◽  
Nalini Prasad
Keyword(s):  
Geographic Variation ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Consumer Sentiment ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Robust Evidence

We seek to identify the causal effect of sentiment innovations on consumption. Using unique Australian consumer sentiment survey data, we show that, immediately after elections with a change of government, supporters of the winning party report substantially more optimistic beliefs about economic conditions than supporters of the losing party. We argue that this variation in beliefs is orthogonal to changes in fundamentals and find robust evidence that the shifts in sentiment affect spending intentions. Furthermore, using geographic variation in sentiment, vote shares, and automobile purchases, we find evidence that stated spending intentions are indicative of actual spending. (JEL E23, E24, E32, F44, L16)

The Janus-Face of Digitalization: The Relation Between Internet Use and Civic Engagement Reconsidered

2019 ◽  
pp. 089443931986196
Author(s):  
Julian Erhardt ◽  
Markus Freitag
Keyword(s):  
Civic Engagement ◽  
Social Engagement ◽  
Internet Use ◽  
Causal Relation ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Internet Studies ◽  
The Social ◽  
Robust Evidence

Research on the influence of digital technology on civic engagement debates whether Internet use leads to the decline of civic engagement or enables new social contacts and exchanges. We argue that whether Internet use has positive or negative effects on our civic engagement depends on how we use the Internet: Social Internet use and Internet use for information strengthen civic engagement, while private Internet use and Internet use for entertainment erode civic engagement. Data from the Longitudinal Internet Studies for the Social sciences (LISS) Panel and the Swiss Household Panel (SHP) allow us to employ differentiated measures of Internet use. In particular, their panel structure helps diminish the endogeneity problems of cross-sectional studies. By employing an autoregressive cross-lagged panel design, we are able to disentangle the relation between Internet use and associational participation and estimate the causal effect between the two variables in both directions. Analyzing associational participation as a pivotal pillar of the civil society, we show that social Internet use for information, in particular exchanging e-mails, but also being active on social network sites in the SHP, increases the likelihood of becoming or remaining active in an organization. At the same time, we fail to find consistent and robust evidence for the negative effects of Internet use. However, the causal relation also works the other way round: Associational participation was shown to increase the time respondents spend with writing e-mails, leading to a virtuous circle, whereby online and off-line forms of social engagement complement and enhance each other.

scholarly journals The Causal Effect of Service Satisfaction on Customer Loyalty

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guofang Huang ◽  
K. Sudhir
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Customer Loyalty ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Behavioral Measure ◽  
Service Satisfaction ◽  
Common Source ◽  
Omitted Variables ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Downward Bias

We propose an instrumental-variable (IV) approach to estimate the causal effect of service satisfaction on customer loyalty by exploiting a common source of randomness in the assignment of service employees to customers in service queues. Our approach can be applied at no incremental cost by using routine repeated cross-sectional customer survey data collected by firms. The IV approach addresses multiple sources of biases that pose challenges in estimating the causal effect using cross-sectional data: (1) the upward bias from common-methods variance resulting from the joint measurement of service satisfaction and loyalty intent in surveys, (2) the attenuation bias caused by measurement errors in service satisfaction, and (3) the omitted variable bias that may be in either direction. In contrast to the common concern about the upward common-methods bias in estimates using cross-sectional survey data, we find that ordinary-least-squares substantially underestimates the causal effect, suggesting that the downward bias resulting from measurement errors and/or omitted variables is dominant. The underestimation is even more significant with a behavioral measure of loyalty, where there is no common-methods bias. This downward bias leads to significant underestimation of the positive profit impact from improving service satisfaction and can lead to underinvestment by firms in service satisfaction. Finally, we find that the causal effect of service satisfaction on loyalty is greater for more difficult types of services. This paper was accepted by Juanjuan Zhang, marketing.

Estimating the Magnitude of the Relation Between Bullying, E-Bullying, and Suicidal Behaviors Among United States Youth, 2015

Crisis ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 157-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin S. Kuehn ◽  
Annelise Wagner ◽  
Jennifer Velloza
Keyword(s):  
Adolescent Suicide ◽  
Suicide Attempts ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Strong Association ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Average Causal Effect ◽  
Effects Of Bullying ◽  
Pc Algorithm ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Significant Covariates

Abstract. Background: Suicide is the second leading cause of death among US adolescents aged 12–19 years. Researchers would benefit from a better understanding of the direct effects of bullying and e-bullying on adolescent suicide to inform intervention work. Aims: To explore the direct and indirect effects of bullying and e-bullying on adolescent suicide attempts (SAs) and to estimate the magnitude of these effects controlling for significant covariates. Method: This study uses data from the 2015 Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Survey (YRBS), a nationally representative sample of US high school youth. We quantified the association between bullying and the likelihood of SA, after adjusting for covariates (i.e., sexual orientation, obesity, sleep, etc.) identified with the PC algorithm. Results: Bullying and e-bullying were significantly associated with SA in logistic regression analyses. Bullying had an estimated average causal effect (ACE) of 2.46%, while e-bullying had an ACE of 4.16%. Limitations: Data are cross-sectional and temporal precedence is not known. Conclusion: These findings highlight the strong association between bullying, e-bullying, and SA.

Measuring Value Change in Western Industrialized Societies: The Impact of Unemployment

1991 ◽  
Vol 85 (3) ◽  
pp. 905-920 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold D. Clarke ◽  
Nitish Dutt
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Value Change ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Past ◽  
Value Priorities ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
The Impact

During the past two decades a four-item battery administered in biannual Euro-Barometer surveys has been used to measure changing value priorities in Western European countries. We provide evidence that the measure is seriously flawed. Pooled cross-sectional time series analyses for the 1976–86 period reveal that the Euro-Barometer postmaterialist-materialist value index and two of its components are very sensitive to short-term changes in economic conditions, and that the failure to include a statement about unemployment in the four-item values battery accounts for much of the apparent growth of postmaterialist values in several countries after 1980. The aggregate-level findings are buttressed by analyses of panel data from three countries.

scholarly journals Identifying the causal effect of child marriage on unmet needs for modern contraception and unintended pregnancy in Nepal: a cross-sectional study using propensity score matching

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. e043532
Author(s):  
Kazutaka Sekine ◽  
Rogie Royce Carandang ◽  
Ken Ing Cherng Ong ◽  
Anand Tamang ◽  
Masamine Jimba
Keyword(s):  
Propensity Score ◽  
Propensity Score Matching ◽  
Unintended Pregnancy ◽  
Unmet Needs ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Child Marriage ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Marginal Population ◽  
Modern Contraception

ObjectivesThis study aimed to investigate whether child marriage had causal effects on unmet needs for modern contraception, and unintended pregnancy, by estimating the marginal (population-averaged) treatment effect of child marriage.DesignThis study used secondary data from the Nepal Demographic and Health Survey 2016. Applying one-to-one nearest-neighbour matching with replacement within a calliper range of ±0.01, 15–49 years old women married before the age of 18 were matched with similar women who were married at 18 or above to reduce selection bias.SettingNationally representative population survey data.ParticipantsThe sample consisted of 7833 women aged 15–49 years who were married for more than 5 years.Outcome measuresUnmet needs for modern contraception and unintended pregnancy.ResultsThe matching method achieved adequate overlap in the propensity score distributions and balance in measured covariates between treatment and control groups with the same propensity score. Propensity score matching analysis showed that the risk of unmet needs for modern contraception, and unintended pregnancy among women married as children were a 14.3 percentage point (95 % CI 10.3 to 18.2) and a 10.1 percentage point (95 % CI 3.7 to 16.4) higher, respectively, than among women married as adults. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the estimated effects were robust to unmeasured covariates.ConclusionsChild marriage appears to increase the risk of unmet needs for modern contraception and unintended pregnancy. These findings call for social development and public health programmes that promote delayed entry into marriage and childbearing to improve reproductive health and rights.

scholarly journals Impact of Oil Palm Expansion on Farmers’ Crop Income and Poverty Reduction in Indonesia: An Application of Propensity Score Matching

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Widya Alwarritzi ◽  
Teruaki Nanseki ◽  
Yosuke Chomei
Keyword(s):  
Propensity Score ◽  
Propensity Score Matching ◽  
Oil Palm ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Average Treatment Effect ◽  
Farm Size ◽  
Order Estimate ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Job Opportunity ◽  
Crop Income

<p>In order to solve serious problem on the lack of job opportunity and poverty in Indonesia, oil palm expansion driven by smallholders have been taken into the economic development agenda. The evidence shows that oil palm expansion by smallholders have a great performance for improving livelihood of rural community. Thus, this study aims to estimate the causal effect of oil palm expansion on farmers’ livelihoods in Indonesia. Using cross-sectional data from 271 households in Riau Province, the determinants of farmers’ decisions to expand oil palm farm size and the impacts of expansion are analyzed. Propensity Score Matching was employed in order to deal with self-selection biased in the evaluation of oil palm expansion impact. In the first step, logit model was applied to analyze the determinant of oil palm expansion. In the second step, each observation is matched with a similar propensity score value in order estimate the average treatment effect for the treated (ATT). Empirical results show that number of family members actively involved in oil palm cultivation, farmers’ financial assets, contract farming, and distance to the market are significantly associated with likelihood for expanding farm size. Positive and significant impacts of crop income from oil palm and <em>per capita </em>expenditures, confirms that oil palm expansion help reducing the problem of job opportunity and poverty in Indonesia. This study implicates that, to improve oil palm expansion practice in Indonesia, several schemes must be considered: enhancing human resources development, integrating oil palm marketing schemes, and improving infrastructure facilities.</p>

scholarly journals What explains the negative effect of unemployment on health? An analysis accounting for reverse causality

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Krug ◽  
Andreas Eberl
Keyword(s):  
Causal Effect ◽  
Health Effect ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
Reverse Causality ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Loss Of Self ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Perceived Social Status ◽  
The Unemployed

The unemployed are often in poorer health than their employed counterparts. This cross-sectional correlation is often attributed to a causal effect of unemployment on health. Resent research analyzing longitudinal data, however, often supports alternative explanations, such as spurious correlation and/or selection of unhealthy workers into unemployment (i.e., reverse causality). In this paper, we apply a dynamic panel data estimator (system GMM) to account for both unobserved confounders and reverse causality. Despite some evidence for health selection, we still find strong support for the causality thesis. Furthermore, we show that the adverse health effect is partially explained by the loss of self-perceived social status due to unemployment but not by the loss of household income or social contacts.

scholarly journals The Leadership and Motivation on Inpatient Compliance in Preventing the Risk of Patients Falling

2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 241-253
Author(s):  
M. Arifki Zainaro Et al.
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Scale Score ◽  
Risk Of Falling ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Relationship Motivation ◽  
Healthcare Practice ◽  
Quantitative Design ◽  
Moderate Scale ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Inpatient Nurses

The purpose of this study was to analyze the relationship between leadership and motivation in compliance with inpatient nurses in preventing the risk of falling in patients at X1 Hospital Bandar Lampung in 2020. Pre-survey data on nurses in receiving newly hospitalized patients at a hospital in Bandar Lampung Indonesia in December 2019 found several cases concerning nurses’ tasks: did not lower the patients' beds, did not label the patients with the triangles, did not carry out Morse Fall Scale score (MFS) assessments, did not give patients' wristbands the risk of falling, did not install fences of the bed. So far, there has been no incidence of falling patients, however, if there is no effort of preventing, there is a risk of falling patients. This study was a quantitative design and used an analytical cross-sectional approach. The population was of all inpatient nurses at a hospital in Bandar Lampung. The samples in this study were all inpatient nurses totaling 97 nurses. This study used a total sampling technique.The author concludes that 1) the leadership given is not good, 2) motivation is on a moderate scale, 3) the nurse is in the non-obedient category, 4) there is a leadership relationship with inpatient nurse compliance in preventing the risk of falling in patients, and 5) there is a relationship motivation with inpatient nurse compliance in preventing the risk of falling in patients.This article provides new insights regarding the management of fall patients in the context of healthcare practice in Indonesia

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