scholarly journals When Is Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective? Evidence from 33 Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcel Fratzscher ◽  
Oliver Gloede ◽  
Lukas Menkhoff ◽  
Lucio Sarno ◽  
Tobias Stöhr
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Success Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Narrow Band ◽  
Foreign Exchange Intervention ◽  
Policy Tool ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Effective Policy ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This paper examines foreign exchange intervention based on novel daily data covering 33 countries from 1995 to 2011. We find that intervention is widely used and an effective policy tool, with a success rate in excess of 80 percent under some criteria. The policy works well in terms of smoothing the path of exchange rates, and in stabilizing the exchange rate in countries with narrow band regimes. Moving the level of the exchange rate in flexible regimes requires that some conditions are met, including the use of large volumes and that intervention is made public and supported via communication. (JEL E52, E58, F31, F33, O19, O24)

scholarly journals Modeling Sources of Asymmetry in the Volatility of the Moroccan Dirham Exchange Rate

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 31
Author(s):  
KHATTAB Ahmed ◽  
SALMI Yahya
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Selection Criterion ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Interbank Market ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Central Bank Intervention ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The main objective of this paper is to study the sources of asymmetry in the volatility of the bilateral exchange rates of the Moroccan dirham (MAD), against the EUR and the USD using the asymmetric econometric models of the ARCH-GARCH family. An empirical analysis was conducted on daily central bank data from March 2003 to March 2021, with a sample size of 4575 observations. Central bank intervention in the foreign exchange (interbank) market was found to affect the asymmetry in the volatility of the bilateral EUR/MAD and USD/MAD exchange rates. Specifically, sales of foreign exchange reserves by the monetary authority cause a fall in the exchange rate, which means that the market response to shocks is asymmetric. Finally, the selection criterion (AIC) allowed us to conclude that the asymmetric model AR(1)-TGARCH(1,1) is adequate for modeling the volatility of the exchange rate of the Moroccan dirham.

scholarly journals The “day-of-the-week” effects in the exchange rate of Latin American currencies

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (PNEA) ◽  
pp. 485-507
Author(s):  
Roberto Joaquín Santillán Salgado ◽  
Alejandro Fonseca Ramírez ◽  
Luis Nelson Romero
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Day Of The Week ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This paper examines the “day-of-the-week” anomaly in the foreign exchange market of six major Latin American countries’ currencies: (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru), all with respect to the United States’ dollar. The returns of daily exchange rates are stationary, so we use linear regressions combined with GARCH, TARCH and EGARCH models to explore the presence of the “day-of-the-week” anomaly. The results confirm the presence of “abnormal” effects in some of the currencies and in some days of the week, particularly on Fridays and Mondays. Moreover, volatility in exchange rates shows clustering behavior, as well as leverage effects, which are carefully modelled in our analysis. This paper contributes to the literature by studying the “day-of-the-week” effects in currency exchange rate markets, a clear innovation with respect to the typical stock market analysis. The results reported are useful for foreign exchange market traders, currency exposure management decision makers, monetary authorities, and financial policy designers in the countries included in the study. Indeed, the results suggest the presence of a typical behavior of the exchange rate of all the currencies included in the sample.

scholarly journals Efeitos das Intervenções Cambiais à vista na Taxa de Câmbio R$/US$ de 1999 a 2008: Um Estudo de Evento

2010 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 229
Author(s):  
Roberto Meurer ◽  
Felipe Wolk Teixeira ◽  
Eduardo Cardeal Tomazzia
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Exchange Intervention ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Rate Acceleration ◽  
Rate Behavior ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Short Time ◽  
New Criterion

This study analyses interventions in the Brazilian spot foreign exchange market from 1999 to 2008 and their effects on the R$/US$ exchange rate, using an event study approach. It aims to verify if the foreign exchange interventions have any significant impact on the exchange rate behavior. The period was divided according to a MS-VAR model and analyzed with different criterions. The results indicate that prolonged foreign exchange intervention have a greater effect on the exchange rate behavior, in comparison to short time intervention episodes. The results also point to the existence of quickly dissipating effects on the rate behavior. The creation of a new criterion, based on the analysis of exchange-rate acceleration, shows that the exchange rate is mainly prone to accelerate on leaning with the wind purchase intervention episodes.

scholarly journals Effect of Exchange Rate, Foreign Exchange Reserves, and Consumer Price Index on the Shariah Shares Index of Asian Countries

2020 ◽  
pp. 77-82
Author(s):  
Dolly Tanzil ◽  
◽  
Marlina Widiyanti ◽  
Muhammad Subardin ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Operating Income ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Sharia shares are securities proof of equity participation in a company. On the base of this proof of participation shareholders are entitled to a share of income arisen from the company's business. This concept of equity participation with share rights of operating income does not conflict with Sharia principles. This study aimed to analyze the effect of exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves and consumer price index on the Sharia stock index of Asian countries, where the research object was the Islamic stock index of Indonesia, Malaysia, Japan and India. It is known that many factors influence on the stock index movements in a country, including domestic interest rates, foreign exchange rates, international economic conditions, a country's economic cycle, inflation rates, tax regulations, and the money supply. In this study, the authors examine the influence of only three factors – the exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves and consumer price index. The panel data regression method was used for the period of January to December 2019. The results of the regression analysis shown that the variables of exchange rates, foreign exchange reserves and the consumer price index together had a significant effect on the Islamic stock index of Asian countries. The R-squared value was 0.997762, meaning that 99% of the variation in the Islamic stock index of Asian countries could be explained by variations in the variable exchange rates, foreign exchange reserves and the consumer price index. The individual test results show that the exchange rate had a significant negative effect on the Islamic stock index of Asian countries. Meanwhile, foreign exchange reserves and the consumer price index had a significant positive effect on the Islamic stock index of Asian countries.

scholarly journals What Factors Affect the RMB Carry Trade Return for Sustainability? An Empirical Analysis by Using an ARDL Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 13533
Author(s):  
Ziyun Zhang ◽  
Sen Guo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Model Fitting ◽  
Carry Trade ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Rmb Exchange Rate ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Missing Variables

With the internationalization of RMB and the openness of China’s capital account, the amount of foreign institutions investing in China has increased significantly. Based on China’s daily data from January 2007 to September 2021, this study investigated the factors that affect the RMB carry-trade return for sustainability. By comparing the results of the carry return before and after the foreign-exchange reform on 11 August 2015, this study found that the RMB carry return has become more traceable after the exchange-rate reform. Meanwhile, the model fitting degree of explaining the RMB carry return was higher, and there were fewer missing variables. Therefore, this study found that after the RMB-exchange-rate mechanism became more market oriented, the RMB carry return became more reasonable, and the carry trade can play a better role in foreign-exchange pricing. Meanwhile, after using the RMB non-deliverable forwards (NDF) to construct a carry-trade position to perform the robustness test, such results were consistent. With different results before and after the exchange-rate reform, this study can provide references for policy makers and investors for sustainable development.

scholarly journals Were the Czech Hotels Able to Confront Current Appreciation of the Czech Currency Before the End of the Exchange Rate Commitment?

2017 ◽  
Vol 65 (6) ◽  
pp. 1925-1933 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomáš Heryán
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This paper has focused on the issue of foreign exchange markets in relation to tourism and hotel industry in the small open economy such as the Czech Republic. After more than three years when the Czech National Bank (CNB) intervened on the foreign exchange market, everybody look forward to development of exchange rates after the end of the exchange rate commitment. The aim of this study is to show how Czech hotels were been able to confront current appreciation of the Czech koruna before the CNB had ended the exchange rate commitment. According to this aim it was necessary to investigate relations between exchange rates and turnover of Czech hotels as the first. Therefore, it has been obtained time series of the hotels’ profit and loss statements from Bureau van Dijk’s Amadeus international statistical database as well as exchange rates from the CNB online database. Other data is from the Eurostat and the World Bank online statistical database. As the main estimation method it is used the GMM approach with panel data for period from 2007 till 2014. After the estimation of those statistical significant relations it is essential to describe the ways, how were the hotels been able to face the exchange rate risk before the end of the commitment. Furthermore, it has been differentiated between natural hedging for smaller hotels and the usage of the financial derivatives for these bigger. Three types of hedging are described: (i) natural hedging, (ii) usage of a currency forward, and (iii) taking a loan in foreign currency.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ON MONETARY POLICY

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 1337-1342
Author(s):  
Vesna Korunoska ◽  
Biljana Mitrovic ◽  
Pavle Trpeski
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The paper monitors the balance of payments in the Republic of N. Macedonia, which determines the amount of the exchange rate through the supply and demand of foreign currency, as well as the impact of the exchange rate on the balance of payments movements. Real exchange rates are essentially equilibrium exchange rates. exchange rate that will keep the balance of payments in balance without taking measures for foreign exchange control, without pronounced inflation and deflationary tendencies and without constant expectation of monetary and foreign exchange reserves.There are several methods by which balance of payments can be established: by devaluation, by currency control and by deflation. When considering the relationship between the national currency exchange rate and the balance of payments of a national economy in terms of their interconnections, one should depart from their causal link of impacts. The exchange rate affects the balance of payments, as well as the balance of payments affects the exchange rate.The first part of the paper elaborates in detail the key activities of the balance of payments adjustment and the exchange rate adjustment, as well as their mutual impact.We use the adjustment mechanism to restore balance once the initial equilibrium has been disturbed. The payment adjustment process takes two different forms. One, under certain conditions, has adjustment factors that automatically contribute to balancing. Second, in the event that automatic adjustment fails to strike a balance, the government adopts a discretionary policy to achieve this goal.

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