scholarly journals The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 177-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Bacchetta ◽  
Eric van Wincoop
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Economic Integration ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Minimum Level ◽  
Global Business ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Partial Integration

While the 2008–2009 financial crisis originated in the United States, output, consumption, and investment declined by similar magnitudes around the globe. Given the partial integration of both goods and financial markets, what can account for the remarkable global business cycle synchronicity during this period? To address this question, we develop a two-country model allowing for self-fulfilling business cycle panics. We show that a business cycle panic will necessarily be synchronized across countries as long as there is a minimum level of economic integration. Several factors, including tight credit, made the global economy particularly vulnerable to a global panic in 2008. (JEL E12, E32, E44, E58, F44, G01)

Disruptive Soft Law and Post-Crisis US Reform

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abraham L. Newman ◽  
Elliot Posner
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Regulatory Reform ◽  
The United States ◽  
Soft Law ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Us ◽  
International Interaction

Chapter 6 examines the long-term effects of international soft law on policy in the United States since 2008. The extent and type of post-crisis US cooperation with foreign jurisdictions have varied considerably with far-reaching ramifications for international financial markets. Focusing on the international interaction of reforms in banking and derivatives, the chapter uses the book’s approach to understand US regulation in the wake of the Great Recession. The authors attribute seemingly random variation in the US relationship to foreign regulation and markets to differences in pre-crisis international soft law. Here, the existence (or absence) of robust soft law and standard-creating institutions determines the resources available to policy entrepreneurs as well as their orientation and attitudes toward international cooperation. Soft law plays a central role in the evolution of US regulatory reform and its interface with the rest of the world.

scholarly journals Evolution of Modern Business Cycle Models: Accounting for the Great Recession

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 141-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick J. Kehoe ◽  
Virgiliu Midrigan ◽  
Elena Pastorino
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
The United States ◽  
Dsge Models ◽  
Real Business Cycle ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Modern Business ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Rich

Modern business cycle theory focuses on the study of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models that generate aggregate fluctuations similar to those experienced by actual economies. We discuss how these modern business cycle models have evolved across three generations, from their roots in the early real business cycle models of the late 1970s through the turmoil of the Great Recession four decades later. The first generation models were real (that is, without a monetary sector) business cycle models that primarily explored whether a small number of shocks, often one or two, could generate fluctuations similar to those observed in aggregate variables such as output, consumption, investment, and hours. These basic models disciplined their key parameters with micro evidence and were remarkably successful in matching these aggregate variables. A second generation of these models incorporated frictions such as sticky prices and wages; these models were primarily developed to be used in central banks for short-term forecasting purposes and for performing counterfactual policy experiments. A third generation of business cycle models incorporate the rich heterogeneity of patterns from the micro data. A defining characteristic of these models is not the heterogeneity among model agents they accommodate nor the micro-level evidence they rely on (although both are common), but rather the insistence that any new parameters or feature included be explicitly disciplined by direct evidence. We show how two versions of this latest generation of modern business cycle models, which are real business cycle models with frictions in labor and financial markets, can account, respectively, for the aggregate and the cross-regional fluctuations observed in the United States during the Great Recession.

scholarly journals Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling

2013 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 1120-1154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serena Ng ◽  
Jonathan H. Wright
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
The United States ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Macroeconomic Modeling ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Market Factors

This paper provides a survey of business cycle facts, updated to take account of recent data. Emphasis is given to the Great Recession, which was unlike most other postwar recessions in the United States in being driven by deleveraging and financial market factors. We document how recessions with financial market origins are different from those driven by supply or monetary policy shocks. This helps explain why economic models and predictors that work well at some times do poorly at other times. We discuss challenges for forecasters and empirical researchers in light of the updated business cycle facts.

Ocena antykryzysowej polityki gospodarczej Stanów Zjednoczonych i wybranych państw członkowskich Unii Europejskiej w latach 2005–2014

2016 ◽  
pp. 26-46
Author(s):  
Marcin Jan Flotyński
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
European Union ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The United States ◽  
The European Union ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Domestic Products

The global financial crisis in 2007–2009 began a period of high volatility on the financial markets. Specifically, it caused an increased amplitude of fluctuations of the level of gross domestic products, the level of investment and consumption and exchange rates in particular countries. To address the adverse market circumstances, governments and central banks took actions in order to bolster the weakening global economy. The aim of this article is to present the anti-crisis actions in the United States and selected member states of the European Union, including Poland, and an assessment of their efficiency. The analysis conducted indicates that generally the actions taken in the United States in response to the crisis were faster and more adequate to the existing circumstances than in the European Union.

scholarly journals Autonomes Fahren statt Stop and Go: Vorschläge zur effektiven Gestaltung der deutschen Kurzarbeit

2019 ◽  
Vol 68 (3) ◽  
pp. 252-260
Author(s):  
Almut Balleer ◽  
Britta Gehrke ◽  
Brigitte Hochmuth ◽  
Christian Merkl
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Timely Manner ◽  
Rule Based ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Stop And Go ◽  
Time Work ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Short Time

Abstract This article argues that short-time work stabilized employment in Germany substantially during the Great Recession in 2008/09. The labor market instrument acted in timely manner, as it was used in a rule-based fashion. In addition, discretionary extensions were effective due to their interaction with the business cycle. To ensure that short-time work will be effective in the future, this article proposes an automatic facilitation of the access to short-time work in severe recessions. This reduces the likelihood of a too extensive use at the wrong point in time as well as structural instead of cyclical interventions.

scholarly journals Measuring the availability of “good jobs” in the United States for working-class men during the Great Recession and recovery

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janette Dill ◽  
Robert Francis
Keyword(s):  
Working Class ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Food Service ◽  
The United States ◽  
Job Quality ◽  
Full Time ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Predicted Probability ◽  
Time Work ◽  
The Impact

In this study, we use the 2004, 2008, and 2014 panels of the Survey for Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to measure the impact of the Great Recession and recovery on the availability of “good jobs” for men without a college degree. We define “good jobs” using a cluster of job quality measures, including wage thresholds of at least $15, $20, or $25 per hour, employer-based health insurance, full-time work hours, and protection from layoff. We find that the Great Recession and aftermath (2008-2015) resulted in a 1-10% reduced probability of being in a “good job” across most industries, with especially large losses in manufacturing, retail, transportation, and food service (compared to 2004-2007). In the 2014 panel, there is only a slight post-recession recovery in the predicted probability of being in a “good job,” and the probability of being in a “good job” remains well below 2004 levels. Although the probability of being on layoff from a “good jobs” does decrease substantially in the 2014 cohort as compared to the rate of layoff during the Great Recession, our clustered measure of job quality shows that access to “good jobs” remains limited for most working-class men and that the recovery from the Recession has largely not reached the working-class.

scholarly journals What Employers Want from Interns: Demand-Side Trends in the Internship Market

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carrie Shandra
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Career Transition ◽  
The United States ◽  
Demand Side ◽  
Entry Level ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Education Experience ◽  
College Career ◽  
Skill Requirements

Internships have become a ubiquitous component of the college-career transition, yet empirical evidence of the internship market is limited. This study uses data from 1.3 million internship postings collected between 2007-2016 in the United States to (1) identify trends in internship education, experience, and skill requirements over the Great Recession and recovery periods; (2) evaluate how these trends correspond to those observed in the traditional labor market; and (3) assess robustness across labor market sectors. Results indicate that internship education and skill requirements increased substantially throughout the recession and recovery periods, indicative of a longer-term structural shift in employer expectations about internship hiring. Additionally, growth in internship education and skill requirements largely outpaced growth in non-internship education and skill requirements over the same period, suggesting potential substitution of non-interns with interns. Post-recession employers still consider internships to be entry-level positions—yet now expect interns to have skills in hand.

scholarly journals The Differential Incidence and Severity of Food Insecurity by Racial, Ethnic, and Immigrant Groups over the Great Recession in the United States

2018 ◽  
Vol 108 ◽  
pp. 379-383 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfonso Flores-Lagunes ◽  
Hugo B. Jales ◽  
Judith Liu ◽  
Norbert L. Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Structural Factors ◽  
Immigrant Status ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Extensive And Intensive Margins ◽  
Race Ethnicity ◽  
Racial Ethnic

We document the differences in food insecurity incidence and severity by race/ethnicity and immigrant status over the Great Recession. We show that the disadvantaged groups with a higher incidence of food insecurity do not necessarily have a higher severity of food insecurity, which underscores the importance of examining both the extensive and intensive margins of food insecurity. Our decomposition analysis indicates that the contribution of compositional and structural factors to the observed differences in exposure to food insecurity is heterogeneous across these groups and over the Great Recession. Finally, SNAP does not seem to fundamentally change the patterns documented.

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