scholarly journals Interest Rates, Leverage, and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Financial Frictions

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 153-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrés Fernández ◽  
Adam Gulan
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Financial Frictions ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Financial Data ◽  
Cycle Model ◽  
Business Cycle Model

Countercyclical country interest rates have been shown to be an important characteristic of business cycles in emerging markets. In this paper we provide a microfounded rationale for this pattern by linking interest rate spreads to the dynamics of corporate leverage. For this purpose we embed a financial accelerator into a business cycle model of a small open economy and estimate it on a novel panel dataset for emerging economies that merges macroeconomic and financial data. The model accounts well for the empirically observed countercyclicality of interest rates and leverage, as well as for other stylized facts. (JEL E13, E32, E43, E44, F41, O11)

scholarly journals Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks

2011 ◽  
Vol 101 (6) ◽  
pp. 2530-2561 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde ◽  
Pablo Guerrón-Quintana ◽  
Juan F Rubio-Ramírez ◽  
Martin Uribe
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Real Interest Rates ◽  
The Real ◽  
Interest Rate Volatility ◽  
Business Cycle Model

We show how changes in the volatility of the real interest rate at which small open emerging economies borrow have an important effect on variables like output, consumption, investment, and hours. We start by documenting the strong evidence of time-varying volatility in the real interest rates faced by four emerging economies: Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, and Venezuela. We estimate a stochastic volatility process for real interest rates. Then, we feed this process in a standard small open economy business cycle model. We find that an increase in real interest rate volatility triggers a fall in output, consumption, investment, hours, and debt. (JEL E13, E20, E32, E43, F32, F43, 011)

scholarly journals Capital controls as a credit policy tool in a small open economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shigeto Kitano ◽  
Kenya Takaku
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Financial Frictions ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Monetary Economics ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
Financial Intermediaries ◽  
Credit Policy ◽  
Policy Tool

AbstractWe develop a sticky price, small open economy model with financial frictions à la [Gertler, Mark, and Peter Karadi. 2011. “A Model of Unconventional Monetary Policy.”Journal of Monetary Economics58 (1): 17–34.], in combination with liability dollarization. An agency problem between domestic financial intermediaries and foreign investors of emerging economies introduces financial frictions in the form of time-varying endogenous balance sheet constraints on the domestic financial intermediaries. We consider a shock that tightens the balance sheet constraint and show that capital controls, the effects of which are rigorously examined as a policy tool for the emerging economies, can be a credit policy tool to mitigate the negative shock.

OIL DEPENDENCE, INTERNATIONAL BORROWINGS, AND ECONOMIC INSTABILITY IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 889-917 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ching-chong Lai ◽  
Chi-ting Chin ◽  
Kuan-jen Chen
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Relative Magnitude ◽  
Real Business Cycle ◽  
Cycle Model ◽  
Financial Account ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Trade Account ◽  
Business Cycle Model ◽  
Real Business Cycle Model

The existing literature dealing with mutual interactions between the extent of oil dependence and the possibility of belief-driven fluctuations unanimously ignores international loans. This simplified assumption disregards the fact that the relative magnitude of the financial account and the trade account exhibits an increasing trend. Faced with this deficiency in the literature, this paper develops a real business cycle model featuring oil dependence in domestic production and international loans, and examines whether both the presence of international borrowings and the dependence on imported energy will govern the emergence of belief-driven fluctuations.

scholarly journals Endogenous Instability in Credit-Constrained Emerging Economies with Leontief Technology

2008 ◽  
Vol 2008 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Cristiana Mammana ◽  
Elisabetta Michetti
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Complex Dynamics ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Border Collision Bifurcations ◽  
Mobile Capital ◽  
Increase Risk ◽  
Bifurcation And Stability

This work provides a framework to analyze the role of financial development as a source of endogenous instability in emerging economies subject to moral hazard problems. We propose and study a dynamic model describing a small open economy with a tradeable good produced by internationally mobile capital and a country specific input, using Leontief technology. We demonstrate that emerging markets could be endogenously unstable since large capital inflows increase risk and exacerbate asymmetric information problems, according to empirical evidences. Using bifurcation and stability analysis, we describe the properties of the system attractors, we assess the plausibility for complex dynamics and, we find out that border collision bifurcations can emerge due to the fact that the state space is piecewise smooth. As a consequence, when a fixed or periodic point loses its stability, the final dynamics may become suddenly chaotic. This fact may explain how financial crises occurred in emerging economies.

THE ROLE OF FOREIGN DEBT AND FINANCIAL FRICTIONS IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY DSGE MODEL

2016 ◽  
Vol 61 (05) ◽  
pp. 1550077
Author(s):  
MYUNG-SOO YIE ◽  
BYOUNG HARK YOO
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Financial Frictions ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
State Level ◽  
Korean Economy ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

We examine the role of foreign debt and financial frictions in the Korean business cycle using a small open economy DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) model where domestic banks borrow external funds, denominated in foreign currencies, for a risk premium and make loans to domestic producers. We find that the Korean economy is ‘financially vulnerable’, which means that the risk premium increases when the domestic currency depreciates. As a result, depreciation could cause recession, rather than expansion, when there exist substantial amount of foreign debt or financial frictions. A simulation shows that the Korean business cycle would suffer less volatility with a lower steady-state level of foreign debt or no financial frictions.

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