scholarly journals The Noise Trader Approach to Finance

1990 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 19-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrei Shleifer ◽  
Lawrence H Summers
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Efficient Markets ◽  
Risky Assets ◽  
Noise Trader ◽  
Security Returns

This paper reviews an alternative to the efficient markets approach that we and others have recently pursued. Our approach rests on two assumptions. First, some investors are not fully rational and their demand for risky assets is affected by their beliefs or sentiments that are not fully justified by fundamental news. Second, arbitrage—defined as trading by fully rational investors not subject to such sentiment—is risky and therefore limited. The two assumptions together imply that changes in investor sentiment are not fully countered by arbitrageurs and so affect security returns. We argue that this approach to financial markets is in many ways superior to the efficient markets paradigm.

scholarly journals Light a lamp and look at the stock market

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Radeef Chundakkadan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Downside Risk ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Risky Assets ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Market Return ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this study, we investigate the impact of the light-a-lamp event that occurred in India during the COVID-19 lockdown. This event happened across the country, and millions of people participated in it. We link this event to the stock market through investor sentiment and misattribution bias. We find a 9% hike in the market return on the post-event day. The effect is heterogeneous in terms of beta, downside risk, volatility, and financial distress. We also find an increase (decrease) in long-term bond yields (price), which together suggests that market participants demanded risky assets in the post-event day.

scholarly journals FRACTAL MARKETS HYPOTHESIS AND THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: SCALING, INVESTMENT HORIZONS AND LIQUIDITY

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (06) ◽  
pp. 1250065 ◽  
Author(s):  
LADISLAV KRISTOUFEK
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Efficient Markets ◽  
Investment Horizon ◽  
Heterogenous Agents ◽  
Efficient Markets Hypothesis ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Underlying Processes

We investigate whether the fractal markets hypothesis and its focus on liquidity and investment horizons give reasonable predictions about the dynamics of the financial markets during turbulences such as the Global Financial Crisis of late 2000s. Compared to the mainstream efficient markets hypothesis, the fractal markets hypothesis considers the financial markets as complex systems consisting of many heterogenous agents, which are distinguishable mainly with respect to their investment horizon. In the paper, several novel measures of trading activity at different investment horizons are introduced through the scaling of variance of the underlying processes. On the three most liquid US indices — DJI, NASDAQ and S&P500 — we show that the predictions of the fractal markets hypothesis actually fit the observed behavior adequately.

Trust and Household Portfolios

2021 ◽  
pp. 78-97
Author(s):  
Diego Lubian
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Financial Literacy ◽  
Risky Assets ◽  
Financial Decisions ◽  
Portfolio Decisions ◽  
Financial Decision ◽  
Financial Portfolio ◽  
Socio Demographic Factors ◽  
The Relationship

This article provides empirical evidence on the existence and the extent of the influence of trust in financial decisions using individual data on Italian households from the Survey on Household Income and Wealth, 2010. This article studies the relationship between, trust in people, trust in banks and more detailed previously unexplored dimensions of trust, and household financial portfolio decisions. The article provides empirical evidence that trust in people and trust in banks affect both participation in financial markets, the share of risky assets and the diversification of the financial portfolio, controlling socio-demographic factors, risk aversion, and financial literacy as well. The article finds that trust is important for individuals with a lower level of education who have limited possibilities to acquire and process information on financial markets need to rely in trustworthy relationship to define their financial portfolio. Further, we present evidence that the main channel by which trust affects financial decision making and determines too little participation, a lower share of risky assets in the financial wealth and poorly diversified portfolios is trust in family and friends.

Ultra-loose monetary policy will soon run its course

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Target Range ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Equity Mutual Funds

Significance Expectations that the Fed will refrain from hiking its benchmark rates from its target range of 0.25-0.5% and that the Japanese central bank will provide further stimulus are suppressing volatility in financial markets and fuelling demand for risk assets. However, evidence that "overburdened" monetary policy is losing its efficacy triggered a sell-off in bonds and equities on September 9, increasing the scope for sharper price falls as investors worry that central banks have run out of ammunition. Impacts Services expanded in August at their slowest pace since 2010, making it less likely that the Fed will raise interest rates this month. EM bond and equity mutual funds have enjoyed a surge in inflows since the Brexit vote as yield-hungry investors pour money into risk assets Oil, a key determinant of investor sentiment, will stay below 50 dollars/barrel unless major producers agree measures to stabilise prices.

Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets

1990 ◽  
Vol 98 (4) ◽  
pp. 703-738 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Bradford De Long ◽  
Andrei Shleifer ◽  
Lawrence H. Summers ◽  
Robert J. Waldmann
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Noise Trader

scholarly journals AN EXPLORATORY RESEARCH ON THE PSYCHOLOGY OF INVESTORS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 979-992
Author(s):  
Mustafa Hakan SALDI
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Endocrine System ◽  
Human Mind ◽  
Exploratory Research ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Risky Assets ◽  
Main Research ◽  
The Relationship

The emotional mind which was granted to human beings in order to add the meaning of their perception through the data, information and knowledge that are being gathered from all around the outside environment with senses and the experiences of realities that have effects on the attitude of a person which can be observed as stereotypes, have effects on the decision making processes of investors, which was proven with general assumptions and theories with countless times in the background of the subject. Differently, this research is mainly designed for in-depth investigation of the relationship between parts of the human brain and endocrine system which have a role on emotional actions that can be observed of investors' behaviours in financial markets. From the viewpoint of experimentally tested studies, the discovery of the response of the subproblems will be explored in the main research question of why the risky assets are being selected by the investors relative to the sciences of neurology and endocrinology. Also, the amygdala, testosterone and cortisol relation which is the predictive factor of behaviours is going to be explained in terms of showing their effects on decision making in monetary management and will be analysed as a moderator with depth observations to understand the relationship between investment behaviour and emotions as well. As a result, the study will bring different perspectives to investors who are both experienced and inexperienced in trading with financial instruments by the addition of consideration of emotional side of the human mind to the logic and rational part.

scholarly journals INVESTIGATION OF THE HERDING AND CONTRARIAN BEHAVIOUR OF INVESTORS

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nijolė MAKNICKIENĖ ◽  
Jovita MASĖNAITĖ ◽  
Viktorija STASYTYTĖ ◽  
Raimonda MARTINKUTĖ-KAULIENĖ
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Technical Analysis ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
Decision Strategy ◽  
Financial Decisions ◽  
Investor Behaviour

Purpose – The paper analyses two different paradigms of investor behaviour that exist in the financial mar-ket – the herding and contrarian behaviour. The main objective of the paper is to determine which pattern of investor behaviour better reflects the real changes in the prices of financial instruments in the financial markets. Research methodology – Algorithms of technical analysis, deep learning and classification of sentiments were used for the research; data of positions held by investors were analysed. Data mining was performed using “Tweet Sentiment Visualization” tool. Findings – The performed analysis of investor behaviour has revealed that it is more useful to ground financial decisions on the opinion of the investors contradicting the majority. The analysis of the data on the positions held by investors helped to make sure that the herding behaviour could have a negative impact on investment results, as the opinion of the majority of investors is less in line with changes in the prices of financial instruments in the market. Research limitations – The study was conducted using a limited number of investment instruments. In the future, more investment instruments can be analysed and additional forecasting methods, as well as more records in social networks can be used. Practical implications – Identifying which paradigm of investor behaviour is more beneficial to rely on can offer ap-propriate practical guidance for investors in order to invest more effectively in financial markets. Investors could use investor sentiment data to make practical investment decisions. All the methods used complement each other and can be combined into one investment decision strategy. Originality/Value – The study compared the ratio of open positions not only with real price changes but also with data obtained from the known technical analysis, deep learning and sentiment classification algorithms, which has not been done in previous studies. The applied methods allowed to achieve reliable and original results.

scholarly journals Non-Arbitrage Models of Financial Markets

2021 ◽  
pp. 67-112
Author(s):  
N. S. Gonchar
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Wide Class ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Martingale Measure ◽  
Fair Price ◽  
Risky Assets ◽  
Contingent Liabilities ◽  
Initial Measure

In the first part of the paper, we construct the models of the complete non-arbitrage financial markets for a wide class of evolutions of risky assets.This construction is based on the observation that for a certain class of risky as set evolutions the martingale measure is invariant with respect to these evolutions. For such a financial market model the only martingale measure being equivalent to an initial measure is built. On such a financial market,formulas for the fair price of contingent liabilities are presented. A multi-parameter model of the financial market is proposed, the martingale measure of which does not depend on the parameters of the model of the evolution of risky assets and is the only one.

CEE's own risks pose a greater threat than China

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East European ◽  
Asset Class ◽  
Trade And Financial Linkages ◽  
Better Than

Subject CEE markets' resilience to China-induced sell-off. Significance While investor sentiment towards emerging markets (EMs) has deteriorated further because of mounting concerns about China's economy and financial markets, the currencies and government bonds of the main Central-East European (CEE) economies have proved remarkably resilient. Even equity markets, which have suffered sharp falls across the EM asset class, have fared better than in other regions, with Polish, Hungarian and Czech stocks falling by 5.0-6.0% in dollar terms in August, compared with 10.0% and 9.5% for emerging Asian and Latin American shares, respectively. CEE markets' resilience stems from the region's negligible trade and financial linkages to China, relatively strong fundamentals and the sentiment-boosting effects of the ECB's programme of quantitative easing (QE). Impacts EMs' significantly stronger fundamentals make comparisons between the current China-led sell-off and earlier crises in the 1990s misleading. There will continue to be a strong correlation between CEE financial markets and price action in the euro-area. The ECB's full-blown QE should help mitigate the adverse effects of a rise in US interest rates. Very high foreign participation in Polish and Hungarian government debt poses a risk should sentiment towards EMs deteriorate more sharply.

Predicting the effect of Googling investor sentiment on Islamic stock market returns

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-193
Author(s):  
Yousra Trichilli ◽  
Mouna Boujelbène Abbes ◽  
Afif Masmoudi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Markov Model ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Hidden Markov Model ◽  
Hidden Markov ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the capability of the hidden Markov model using Googling investors’ sentiments to predict the dynamics of Islamic indexes’ returns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) financial markets from 2004 to 2018. Design/methodology/approach The authors propose a hidden Markov model based on the transition matrix to apprehend the relationship between investor’s sentiment and Islamic index returns. The proposed model facilitates capturing the uncertainties in Islamic market indexes and the possible effects of the dynamics of Islamic market on the persistence of these regimes or States. Findings The bearish state is the most persistent sentiment with the longest duration for all the MENA Islamic markets except for Jordan, Morocco and Qatar. In addition, the obtained results indicate that the effect of sentiment on predicting the future Islamic index returns is conditional on the MENA States. Besides, the estimated mean returns for each state indicates that the bullish and calm states are ideal for investing in Islamic indexes of Bahrain, Oman, Morocco, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. However, only the bullish state is ideal for investing Islamic indexes of Jordan, Egypt and Qatar. Research limitations/implications This paper has used data at a monthly frequency that can explain only short-term dynamics between Googling investor’s sentiment and the MENA Islamic stock market returns. Moreover, this work can be done on the stock markets while taking into account the specificity of each activity sector. Practical implications In fact, the findings of this paper are helpful for academics, analysts and practitioners, and more specifically for the Islamic MENA financial investors. Moreover, this study provides useful insights not only into the duration of the relationship between the indexes’ returns and the investors’ sentiments in the five states but also into the transition probabilities which have implications for how investors could be guided in their choice of future investment in a portfolio with Islamic indexes. Findings of this paper are important and valuable for policy-makers and investors. Thus, predicting the effect of Googling investors’ sentiment on the MENA Islamic stock market dynamics is important for portfolio diversification by domestic and international investors. Moreover, the results of this paper gave new insights into financial analysts about the dynamic relationship between Googling investors’ sentiment and Islamic stock market returns across market regimes. Therefore, the findings of this study might be useful for investors as they help them capture the unobservable dynamics of the changes in the investors’ sentiment regimes in the MENA financial markets to make successful investment decisions. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first to use the hidden Markov model to examine changes in the Islamic index return dynamics across five market sentiment states, namely the depressed sentiment (S1), the bullish sentiment (S2), the bearish sentiment (S3), the calm sentiment (S4) and the bubble sentiment (S5).

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