scholarly journals Are Risk Preferences Stable?

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah Schildberg-Hörisch

It is ultimately an empirical question whether risk preferences are stable over time. The evidence comes from diverse strands of literature, covering the stability of risk preferences in panel data over shorter periods of time, life-cycle dynamics in risk preferences, the possibly long-lasting effects of exogenous shocks on risk preferences as well as temporary variations in risk preferences. Individual risk preferences appear to be persistent and moderately stable over time, but their degree of stability is too low to be reconciled with the assumption of perfect stability in neoclassical economic theory. We offer an alternative conceptual framework for preference stability that builds on research regarding the stability of personality traits in psychology. The definition of stability used in psychology implies high levels of rank-order stability across individuals and not that the individual will maintain the same level of a trait over time. Preference parameters are considered as distributions with a mean that is significantly but less than perfectly stable, plus some systematic variance. This framework accommodates evidence on systematic changes in risk preferences over the life cycle, due to exogenous shocks such as economic crises or natural catastrophes, and due to temporary changes in self-control resources, emotions, or stress. We note that research on the stability of (risk) preferences is conceptually at the heart of microeconomics and systematic changes in risk preferences have vital real-world consequences.

Author(s):  
Michelle Baddeley

Often our everyday decisions unfold over time and what we want today is not always consistent with what we might want tomorrow. Understanding why many people do not behave in a way that is consistent with their own long-term best interests is a key challenge for behavioural economists and policy-makers. ‘Taking time’ explains how humans (and animals) suffer from present bias: we have a disproportionate preference for smaller, immediate rewards over delayed, larger rewards—a reflection of underlying time inconsistency. It considers the intertemporal tussle between our patient and impatient selves, pre-commitment strategies, and self-control. The behavioural life cycle models of choice bracketing, framing, and mental accounting are also discussed.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine M. Finnigan

How stable are people’s day-to-day lives? It is now well-established that personality traits and behavior are quite stable over time (Roberts & DelVecchio, 2000). Several theories of personality suggest that the stability of one’s environment contributes to the stability of personality. However, little is known about the extent to which features of people’s daily environments are stable. In this secondary analysis, I examined the rank-order stability of individual differences in features of daily situations in a 2-year longitudinal study of daily life (N = 387). I analyzed three waves of two-week Experience Sampling Method (ESM) assessments of daily situation experiences, personality states, and behavior. ESM open responses were also coded for the DIAMONDS characteristics in the first two waves of ESM assessment. Personality states were found to be stable from year-to-year (M Stability = .63). Situated experiences (e.g., familiarity) were found to be about as stable as personality states. Activities (e.g., at home) and the eight DIAMONDS characteristics were found to be less stable than personality and situated experiences, but still showed moderate stability. These findings suggest that situation experience may be a viable individual difference and that the stability of environments may contribute to the stability of behavior, and vice versa.


2010 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 68-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
María José Contreras ◽  
Víctor J. Rubio ◽  
Daniel Peña ◽  
José Santacreu

Individual differences in performance when solving spatial tasks can be partly explained by differences in the strategies used. Two main difficulties arise when studying such strategies: the identification of the strategy itself and the stability of the strategy over time. In the present study strategies were separated into three categories: segmented (analytic), holistic-feedback dependent, and holistic-planned, according to the procedure described by Peña, Contreras, Shih, and Santacreu (2008) . A group of individuals were evaluated twice on a 1-year test-retest basis. During the 1-year interval between tests, the participants were not able to prepare for the specific test used in this study or similar ones. It was found that 60% of the individuals kept the same strategy throughout the tests. When strategy changes did occur, they were usually due to a better strategy. These results prove the robustness of using strategy-based procedures for studying individual differences in spatial tasks.


2013 ◽  
Vol 44 (6) ◽  
pp. 380-389 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabine Förderer ◽  
Christian Unkelbach

Evaluative conditioning (EC) refers to valence changes in neutral stimuli (CSs) through repeated pairing with liked or disliked stimuli (USs). The present study examined the stability of EC effects in the course of 1 week. We investigated how this stability depends on memory for US valence and US identity. We also investigated whether CSs evaluations occurring immediately after conditioning (i.e., evaluative consolidation) are necessary for stable EC effects. Participants showed stable EC effects on direct and indirect measures, independent of evaluations immediately after conditioning. EC effects depended on memory for US valence but not for US identity. And although memory decreased significantly over time, EC effects remained stable. These data suggest that evaluative consolidation is not necessary, and that conditioned preferences and attitudes might persist even when people do not remember the concrete source anymore.


Author(s):  
Rebekah J. Nixon ◽  
Sascha H. Kranen ◽  
Anni Vanhatalo ◽  
Andrew M. Jones

AbstractThe metabolic boundary separating the heavy-intensity and severe-intensity exercise domains is of scientific and practical interest but there is controversy concerning whether the maximal lactate steady state (MLSS) or critical power (synonymous with critical speed, CS) better represents this boundary. We measured the running speeds at MLSS and CS and investigated their ability to discriminate speeds at which $$\dot{V}{\text{O}}_{2}$$ V ˙ O 2 was stable over time from speeds at which a steady-state $$\dot{V}{\text{O}}_{2}$$ V ˙ O 2 could not be established. Ten well-trained male distance runners completed 9–12 constant-speed treadmill tests, including 3–5 runs of up to 30-min duration for the assessment of MLSS and at least 4 runs performed to the limit of tolerance for assessment of CS. The running speeds at CS and MLSS were significantly different (16.4 ± 1.3 vs. 15.2 ± 0.9 km/h, respectively; P < 0.001). Blood lactate concentration was higher and increased with time at a speed 0.5 km/h higher than MLSS compared to MLSS (P < 0.01); however, pulmonary $$\dot{V}{\text{O}}_{2}$$ V ˙ O 2 did not change significantly between 10 and 30 min at either MLSS or MLSS + 0.5 km/h. In contrast, $$\dot{V}{\text{O}}_{2}$$ V ˙ O 2 increased significantly over time and reached $$\dot{V}{\text{O}}_{2\,\,\max }$$ V ˙ O 2 max at end-exercise at a speed ~ 0.4 km/h above CS (P < 0.05) but remained stable at a speed ~ 0.5 km/h below CS. The stability of $$\dot{V}{\text{O}}_{2}$$ V ˙ O 2 at a speed exceeding MLSS suggests that MLSS underestimates the maximal metabolic steady state. These results indicate that CS more closely represents the maximal metabolic steady state when the latter is appropriately defined according to the ability to stabilise pulmonary $$\dot{V}{\text{O}}_{2}$$ V ˙ O 2 .


2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Tiago Ferreira ◽  
Joana Cadima ◽  
Marisa Matias ◽  
Teresa Leal ◽  
Paula Mena Matos

Abstract This longitudinal study follows children from dual-earner families in 4 time-points, covering the early childhood period. We examined the influence of work–family conflict (WFC) on maternal relational frustration (RF) towards the child, and investigated the reciprocal relations among maternal RF, children's self-control (SC), and teacher–child (TC) conflict over time. Participants were 214 children (97 girls; M age = 4.00 years), their mothers, and teachers. Mothers reported their own WFC and RF, whereas teachers reported child SC and T-C conflict. Results from a cross-lagged panel model indicated the experience of WFC positively predicted maternal RF. Maternal RF and T-C conflict were negatively related to the child later SC abilities. Conversely, children who displayed SC difficulties were more likely to experience later maternal RF and T-C conflict. There was evidence supporting the bidirectional effects of child SC and T-C conflict across time. Moreover, maternal RF and T-C conflict were indirectly linked, via child SC. The findings are consistent with a transactional view of development, stressing the importance of contextual factors to the quality of caregiving relationships and highlighting the complex and reciprocal relations between child regulatory competence and the quality of relationships with distinct caregivers.


Polymers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1877
Author(s):  
Kai-Hung Yang ◽  
Gabriella Lindberg ◽  
Bram Soliman ◽  
Khoon Lim ◽  
Tim Woodfield ◽  
...  

Recent advances highlight the potential of photopolymerizable allylated gelatin (GelAGE) as a versatile hydrogel with highly tailorable properties. It is, however, unknown how different photoinitiating system affects the stability, gelation kinetics and curing depth of GelAGE. In this study, sol fraction, mass swelling ratio, mechanical properties, rheological properties, and curing depth were evaluated as a function of time with three photo-initiating systems: Irgacure 2959 (Ig2959; 320–500 nm), lithium phenyl-2,4,6-trimethylbenzoylphosphinate (LAP; 320–500 nm), and ruthenium/sodium persulfate (Ru/SPS; 400–500 nm). Results demonstrated that GelAGE precursory solutions mixed with either Ig2959 or LAP remained stable over time while the Ru/SPS system enabled the onset of controllable redox polymerization without irradiation during pre-incubation. Photo-polymerization using the Ru/SPS system was significantly faster (<5 s) compared to both Ig2959 (70 s) and LAP (50 s). Plus, The Ru/SPS system was capable of polymerizing a thick construct (8.88 ± 0.94 mm), while Ig2959 (1.62 ± 0.49 mm) initiated hydrogels displayed poor penetration depth with LAP (7.38 ± 2.13 mm) in between. These results thus support the use of the visible light based Ru/SPS photo-initiator for constructs requiring rapid gelation and a good curing depth while Ig2959 or LAP can be applied for photo-polymerization of GelAGE materials requiring long-term incubation prior to application if UV is not a concern.


2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-38
Author(s):  
Lauren Biernacki ◽  
Mark Gallagher ◽  
Zhixing Xu ◽  
Misiker Tadesse Aga ◽  
Austin Harris ◽  
...  

There is an increasing body of work in the area of hardware defenses for software-driven security attacks. A significant challenge in developing these defenses is that the space of security vulnerabilities and exploits is large and not fully understood. This results in specific point defenses that aim to patch particular vulnerabilities. While these defenses are valuable, they are often blindsided by fresh attacks that exploit new vulnerabilities. This article aims to address this issue by suggesting ways to make future defenses more durable based on an organization of security vulnerabilities as they arise throughout the program life cycle. We classify these vulnerability sources through programming, compilation, and hardware realization, and we show how each source introduces unintended states and transitions into the implementation. Further, we show how security exploits gain control by moving the implementation to an unintended state using knowledge of these sources and how defenses work to prevent these transitions. This framework of analyzing vulnerability sources, exploits, and defenses provides insights into developing durable defenses that could defend against broader categories of exploits. We present illustrative case studies of four important attack genealogies—showing how they fit into the presented framework and how the sophistication of the exploits and defenses have evolved over time, providing us insights for the future.


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