scholarly journals Systematic Bias and Nontransparency in US Social Security Administration Forecasts

2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 239-258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstantin Kashin ◽  
Gary King ◽  
Samir Soneji
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Best Practices ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
Social Security Administration ◽  
Trust Funds ◽  
The Social ◽  
Forecasting Errors ◽  
Policy Proposals ◽  
Made In

We offer an evaluation of the Social Security Administration demographic and financial forecasts used to assess the long-term solvency of the Social Security Trust Funds. This same forecasting methodology is also used in evaluating policy proposals put forward by Congress to modify the Social Security program. Ours is the first evaluation to compare the SSA forecasts with observed truth; for example, we compare forecasts made in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s with outcomes that are now available. We find that Social Security Administration forecasting errors—as evaluated by how accurate the forecasts turned out to be—were approximately unbiased until 2000 and then became systematically biased afterward, and increasingly so over time. Also, most of the forecasting errors since 2000 are in the same direction, consistently misleading users of the forecasts to conclude that the Social Security Trust Funds are in better financial shape than turns out to be the case. Finally, the Social Security Administration's informal uncertainty intervals appear to have become increasingly inaccurate since 2000. At present, the Office of the Chief Actuary, at the Social Security Administration, does not reveal in full how its forecasts are made. Every future Trustees Report, without exception, should include a routine evaluation of all prior forecasts, and a discussion of what forecasting mistakes were made, what was learned from the mistakes, and what actions might be taken to improve forecasts going forward. And the Social Security Administration and its Office of the Chief Actuary should follow best practices in academia and many other parts of government and make their forecasting procedures public and replicable, and should calculate and report calibrated uncertainty intervals for all forecasts.

scholarly journals Explaining Systematic Bias and Nontransparency in U.S. Social Security Administration Forecasts

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 336-362 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstantin Kashin ◽  
Gary King ◽  
Samir Soneji
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Random Noise ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Systematic Evaluation ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
Social Security Administration ◽  
Quarter Century ◽  
Trust Funds ◽  
Policy Proposals

The accuracy of U.S. Social Security Administration (SSA) demographic and financial forecasts is crucial for the solvency of its Trust Funds, other government programs, industry decision-making, and the evidence base of many scholarly articles. Because SSA makes public insufficient replication information and uses antiquated statistical forecasting methods, no external group has ever been able to produce fully independent forecasts or evaluations of policy proposals to change the system. Yet, no systematic evaluation of SSA forecasts has ever been published by SSA or anyone else—until a companion paper to this one. We show that SSA's forecasting errors were approximately unbiased until about 2000, but then began to grow quickly, with increasingly overconfident uncertainty intervals. Moreover, the errors are largely in the same direction, making the Trust Funds look healthier than they are. We extend and then explain these findings with evidence from a large number of interviews with participants at every level of the forecasting and policy processes. We show that SSA's forecasting procedures meet all the conditions the modern social-psychology and statistical literatures demonstrate make bias likely. When those conditions mixed with potent new political forces trying to change Social Security, SSA's actuaries hunkered down, trying hard to insulate their forecasts from strong political pressures. Unfortunately, this led the actuaries into not incorporating the fact that retirees began living longer lives and drawing benefits longer than predicted. We show that fewer than 10% of their scorings of major policy proposals were statistically different from random noise as estimated from their policy forecasting error. We also show that the solution to this problem involves SSA or Congress implementing in government two of the central projects of political science over the last quarter century: (1) transparency in data and methods and (2) replacing with formal statistical models large numbers of ad hoc qualitative decisions too complex for unaided humans to make optimally.

scholarly journals Heterogeneous Scarring Effects of Full-Year Nonemployment

2017 ◽  
Vol 107 (5) ◽  
pp. 369-373 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatih Guvenen ◽  
Fatih Karahan ◽  
Serdar Ozkan ◽  
Jae Song
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Social Security Administration ◽  
Earnings Distribution ◽  
Employment Effects ◽  
Long Period ◽  
Earnings Losses ◽  
The Social ◽  
Scarring Effects

Drawing on administrative data from the Social Security Administration, we find that individuals that go through a long period of non-employment suffer large and long-term earnings losses (around 35-40 percent) compared to individuals with similar age and previous earnings histories. Importantly, these differences depend on past earnings, and are largest at the bottom and top of the earnings distribution. Focusing on workers that are employed 10 years after a period of long-term non-employment, we find much smaller earnings losses (8-10 percent). Furthermore, the large earnings losses of low-income individuals are almost entirely due to employment effects.

scholarly journals Overview of PROMISE

2020 ◽  
pp. 216514342098045
Author(s):  
David E. Emenheiser ◽  
Corinne Weidenthal ◽  
Selete Avoke ◽  
Marlene Simon-Burroughs
Keyword(s):  
Career Development ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Human Services ◽  
Technical Assistance ◽  
Department Of Education ◽  
Social Security Administration ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Health And Human Services ◽  
The Social ◽  
The U.S

Promoting the Readiness of Minors in Supplemental Security Income (PROMISE), a study of 13,444 randomly assigned youth and their families, includes six model demonstration projects and a technical assistance center funded through the U.S. Department of Education and a national evaluation of the model demonstration projects funded through the Social Security Administration. The Departments of Labor and Health and Human Services and the Executive Office of the President partnered with the Department of Education and Social Security Administration to develop and monitor the PROMISE initiative. This article provides an overview of PROMISE as the introduction to this special issue of Career Development and Transition for Exceptional Individuals.

Schwäche der Tarifautonomie und Legitimitätsfragen im Arbeitsrecht und im Sozialrecht

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (2) ◽  
pp. 209-236
Author(s):  
Stephan Seiwerth
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
System Change ◽  
State Regulation ◽  
The State ◽  
Social Security Administration ◽  
Collective Agreements ◽  
The Social ◽  
Social Partners

AbstractSocial partners have played a privileged role in German social security administration since Bismarckian times. In 2014, a new legislation empowered the social partners to set the level of the statutory minimum wage and to demand the extension of collective agreements. This article examines the interdependence of the trade unions’ and employer organisations’ membership numbers and their involvement in state regulation of labour and social security law. In case the interest in autonomous regulations is not going to increase, the state will have to step in with more heteronomous regulation. This would incrementally lead to a system change.

scholarly journals Implementasi Undang-Undang Nomor 24 Tahun 2011 Tentang Badan Penyelenggaraan Jaminan Sosial pada PT. Horiko Abadi Kabupaten Buleleng

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-129
Author(s):  
Gede Oscar Geovani ◽  
I Nyoman Putu Budiartha ◽  
Putu Ayu Sriasih Wesna
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Old Age ◽  
Research Method ◽  
Social Security Administration ◽  
Application Of Law ◽  
The Social ◽  
Legal Sanctions ◽  
Work Accidents ◽  
Permanent Employees ◽  
A Company

Social security provides protection for workers in the socio-economic risks that befall workers in carrying out their work in the form of work accidents, illness, old age, or death. This thesis discusses the implementation of Law Number 24 of 2011 concerning the Social Security Administration at PT. Horiko Abadi, Buleleng Regency. Based on the description above, this study aims to determine the application of Law Number 24 of 2011 concerning the Social Security Administration at PT. Horiko Abadi, Buleleng Regency 2 legal sanctions against the company in the event of a violation of the provisions of the social security program. The research method used is the empirical juridical method. The location of this research was conducted at PT. Horiko Abadi, Buleleng Regency, a company engaged in the breeding of shellfish and pearl cultivation. Based on the research results, PT. Horiko Abadi has implemented social security protection for all permanent employees in the company in accordance with the provisions of Law Number 24 of 2011 concerning Social Security Administering Bodies, and sanctions for companies that have not implemented the provisions of Law Number 24 of 2011 Regarding the Social Security Administering Body, it is still in the guidance or warning stage until the company concerned can carry out the provisions of the legislation.

scholarly journals Revealing the Legal Protection of Patients Social Security Administration Agency of Health in Sanglah and Balimed Hospitals Denpasar

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 102-110
Author(s):  
RA Tuty Kuswardhani ◽  
I Nyoman Budiana
Keyword(s):  
Health Insurance ◽  
Social Security ◽  
National Health Insurance ◽  
National Health ◽  
Legal Protection ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
National Formulary ◽  
Social Security Administration ◽  
Curative Therapy ◽  
The Social

Social Security Administration Agency of Health has a National National Health Insurance formulary, but in reality patients do not get drugs according to the National Health Insurance National Formulary. Therefore, the aims of this study are to determine the legal protection of patients of the Social Security Administration Agency of Health for the elderly in curative therapy in hospitals according to the national formulary of National Health Insurance at Sanglah Hospital and Balimed Hospital, and to know the responsibilities undertaken by the Social Security Administration Agency of Health in fulfilling its obligations for patients the Agency for the Implementation of the Social Health Insurance of the elderly in curative therapy in accordance with the national formulary of the National Health Insurance. This study uses a participatory observational (empirical-observational) empirical legal research method. Sampling with purposive sampling and data collection techniques using triangulation techniques. In principle, legal protection must refer to legal certainty, fairness and benefits for the population participating in the Social Security Administration Agency of Health for the elderly so that it is not impressed that Balimed Hospital and Sanglah General Hospital and the Social Security Administration Agency of Health make a service to consumers who are not good. The legal responsibility that should be obtained by the participants of the Social Security Administration Agency of Health for the elderly in Balimed Hospital and Sanglah Hospital Denpasar which is currently not maximally received by patients participating in the Social Security Administration Agency of Health for the elderly at Balimed Hospital and Sanglah Hospital.

scholarly journals The Scope of Protection and Financing of Social Risk in Poland on the Example of the Social Security Administration

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 835-842
Author(s):  
Roman Garbiec
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Social Insurance ◽  
Social Risk ◽  
Social Security Administration ◽  
Social Insurance System ◽  
Radical Reform ◽  
Social Risks ◽  
The Social ◽  
Scope Of Protection

AbstractSocial risks are an unusual type of risks occurring in insurance. Their specific feature is the implementation of risk in the sphere of social life of a person with special regard to the work environment. Social risks are an element of research in economics and law and in social policy. The author of the paper shows that the structure of the Polish social insurance system is not optimal and requires radical reform. This paper contains, among others, characteristics of the scope of protection of social risks identified in Poland by Social Security Administration and the basis for financing benefits from this system. The summary of the paper presents opinions on improving the financial efficiency of this system.

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