scholarly journals The Economic Effects of Climate Change

2009 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 29-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard S. J Tol
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Research Effort ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Damage Cost ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

I review the literature on the economic impacts of climate change, an externality that is unprecedentedly large, complex, and uncertain. Only 14 estimates of the total damage cost of climate change have been published, a research effort that is in sharp contrast to the urgency of the public debate and the proposed expenditure on greenhouse gas emission reduction. These estimates show that climate change initially improves economic welfare. However, these benefits are sunk. Impacts would be predominantly negative later in the century. Global average impacts would be comparable to the welfare loss of a few percent of income, but substantially higher in poor countries. Still, the impact of climate change over a century is comparable to economic growth over a few years. There are over 200 estimates of the marginal damage cost of carbon dioxide emissions. The uncertainty about the social cost of carbon is large and right-skewed. For a standard discount rate, the expected value is $50/tC, which is much lower than the price of carbon in the European Union but much higher than the price of carbon elsewhere. Current estimates of the damage costs of climate change are incomplete, with positive and negative biases. Most important among the missing impacts are the indirect effects of climate change on economic development; large-scale biodiversity loss; low-probability, high-impact scenarios; the impact of climate change on violent conflict; and the impacts of climate change beyond 2100. From a welfare perspective, the impact of climate change is problematic because population is endogenous, and because policy analyses should separate impatience, risk aversion, and inequity aversion between and within countries.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese White Pine Beetle Dendroctonus armandi in China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 544
Author(s):  
Hang Ning ◽  
Ming Tang ◽  
Hui Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Central China ◽  
Qinling Mountains ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
The Impact

Dendroctonus armandi (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytidae) is a bark beetle native to China and is the most destructive forest pest in the Pinus armandii woodlands of central China. Due to ongoing climate warming, D. armandi outbreaks have become more frequent and severe. Here, we used Maxent to model its current and future potential distribution in China. Minimum temperature of the coldest month and precipitation seasonality are the two major factors constraining the current distribution of D. armandi. Currently, the suitable area of D. armandi falls within the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains. The total suitable area is 15.83 × 104 km2. Under future climate scenarios, the total suitable area is projected to increase slightly, while remaining within the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains. Among the climate scenarios, the distribution expanded the most under the maximum greenhouse gas emission scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5). Under all assumptions, the highly suitable area is expected to increase over time; the increase will occur in southern Shaanxi, northwest Hubei, and northeast Sichuan Provinces. By the 2050s, the highly suitable area is projected to increase by 0.82 × 104 km2. By the 2050s, the suitable climatic niche for D. armandi will increase along the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains, posing a major challenge for forest managers. Our findings provide information that can be used to monitor D. armandi populations, host health, and the impact of climate change, shedding light on the effectiveness of management responses.

Structural safety and design under climate change

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pietro Croce ◽  
Paolo Formichi ◽  
Filippo Landi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Structural Safety ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

<p>The impact of climate change on climatic actions could significantly affect, in the mid-term future, the design of new structures as well as the reliability of existing ones designed in accordance to the provisions of present and past codes. Indeed, current climatic loads are defined under the assumption of stationary climate conditions but climate is not stationary and the current accelerated rate of changes imposes to consider its effects.</p><p>Increase of greenhouse gas emissions generally induces a global increase of the average temperature, but at local scale, the consequences of this phenomenon could be much more complex and even apparently not coherent with the global trend of main climatic parameters, like for example, temperature, rainfalls, snowfalls and wind velocity.</p><p>In the paper, a general methodology is presented, aiming to evaluate the impact of climate change on structural design, as the result of variations of characteristic values of the most relevant climatic actions over time. The proposed procedure is based on the analysis of an ensemble of climate projections provided according a medium and a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Factor of change for extreme value distribution’s parameters and return values are thus estimated in subsequent time windows providing guidance for adaptation of the current definition of structural loads.</p><p>The methodology is illustrated together with the outcomes obtained for snow, wind and thermal actions in Italy. Finally, starting from the estimated changes in extreme value parameters, the influence on the long-term structural reliability can be investigated comparing the resulting time dependent reliability with the reference reliability levels adopted in modern Structural codes.</p>

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Mekong River basin: a case study of the Nam Ou basin, Lao PDR

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Shrestha ◽  
M. S. Babel ◽  
S. Maskey ◽  
A. van Griensven ◽  
S. Uhlenbrook ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sediment Flux ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Nam Ou basin located in northern Laos. Future climate (temperature and precipitation) from four general circulation models (GCMs) that are found to perform well in the Mekong region and a regional circulation model (PRECIS) are downscaled using a delta change approach. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to assess future changes in sediment flux attributable to climate change. Results indicate up to 3.0 °C shift in seasonal temperature and 27% (decrease) to 41% (increase) in seasonal precipitation. The largest increase in temperature is observed in the dry season while the largest change in precipitation is observed in the wet season. In general, temperature shows increasing trends but changes in precipitation are not unidirectional and vary depending on the greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES), climate models, prediction period and season. The simulation results show that the changes in annual stream discharges are likely to range from a 17% decrease to 66% increase in the future, which will lead to predicted changes in annual sediment yield ranging from a 27% decrease to about 160% increase. Changes in intra-annual (monthly) discharge as well as sediment yield are even greater (−62 to 105% in discharge and −88 to 243% in sediment yield). A higher discharge and sediment flux are expected during the wet seasons, although the highest relative changes are observed during the dry months. The results indicate high uncertainties in the direction and magnitude of changes of discharge as well as sediment yields due to climate change. As the projected climate change impact on sediment varies remarkably between the different climate models, the uncertainty should be taken into account in both sediment management and climate change adaptation.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on groundwater point discharge: backflooding of karstic springs (Loiret, France)

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 2235-2262
Author(s):  
E. Joigneaux ◽  
P. Albéric ◽  
H. Pauwels ◽  
C. Pagé ◽  
L. Terray ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Groundwater Quality ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Type ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract. Under certain hydrological conditions it is possible for spring flow in karst systems to be reversed. When this occurs, the resulting invasion by surface water, i.e. the backflooding, represents a serious threat to groundwater quality because the surface water could well be contaminated. Here we examine the possible impact of future climate change on the occurrences of backflooding in a specific karst system, having first established the occurrence of such events in the selected study area over the past 40 yr. It would appear that backflooding has been more frequent since the 1980s, and that it is apparently linked to river flow variability on the pluri-annual scale. The avenue that we adopt here for studying recent and future variations of these events is based on a downscaling algorithm relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to local precipitation spatial patterns. The large-scale atmospheric circulation is viewed as a set of quasi-stationary and recurrent states, called weather types, and its variability as the transition between them. Based on a set of climate model projections, simulated changes in weather-type occurrence for the end of the century suggests that backflooding events can be expected to decrease in 2075–2099. If such is the case, then the potential risk for groundwater quality in the area will be greatly reduced compared to the current situation. Finally, our results also show the potential interest of the weather-type based downscaling approach for examining the impact of climate change on hydrological systems.

scholarly journals Separating the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff: A Review of Method and Application

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Zeng ◽  
Ming-Guo Ma ◽  
Dong-Rui Di ◽  
Wei-Yu Shi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Research Methods ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Research Needs ◽  
Relevant Research ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Separating the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff is an important topic in hydrology, and a large number of methods and theories have been widely used. In this paper, we review the current papers on separating the impacts of climate and human activities on runoff, summarize the progress of relevant research methods and applications in recent years, and discuss future research needs and directions.

scholarly journals Understanding Future Water Challenges in a Highly Regulated Indian River Basin—Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Narmada

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1762 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Rickards ◽  
Thomas Thomas ◽  
Alexandra Kaelin ◽  
Helen Houghton-Carr ◽  
Sharad K. Jain ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Availability Assessment

The Narmada river basin is a highly regulated catchment in central India, supporting a population of over 16 million people. In such extensively modified hydrological systems, the influence of anthropogenic alterations is often underrepresented or excluded entirely by large-scale hydrological models. The Global Water Availability Assessment (GWAVA) model is applied to the Upper Narmada, with all major dams, water abstractions and irrigation command areas included, which allows for the development of a holistic methodology for the assessment of water resources in the basin. The model is driven with 17 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to assess the impact of climate change on water resources in the basin for the period 2031–2060. The study finds that the hydrological regime within the basin is likely to intensify over the next half-century as a result of future climate change, causing long-term increases in monsoon season flow across the Upper Narmada. Climate is expected to have little impact on dry season flows, in comparison to water demand intensification over the same period, which may lead to increased water stress in parts of the basin.

Economic impacts of climate change and variability on agricultural production in the Middle East and North Africa region

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 463-472 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Alboghdady ◽  
Salah E. El-Hendawy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change And Variability ◽  
Cent Increase ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Purpose The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural production in Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) where the deleterious impacts of climate change are generally projected to be greatest. Design/methodology/approach The study used a production function model using Fixed Effect Regression (FER) analysis and then using marginal impact analysis to assess the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural production. Therefore, the study utilized panel data for the period 1961-2009 pooled from 20 countries in MENA region. Findings Results showed that 1 per cent increase in temperature during winter resulted in 1.12 per cent decrease in agricultural production. It was also observed that 1 per cent increase in temperature variability during winter and spring resulted in 0.09 and 0.14 per cent decrease in agricultural production, respectively. Results also indicated that increasing precipitation during winter and fall season and precipitation variability during winter and summer seasons had negative impact. The estimated parameters of square temperature and precipitation indicated that climate change has significant nonlinear impacts on agricultural production in MENA region. Originality/value Despite there are many studies on the impact of climate change on agricultural production, there is a lack of publications to address the economic impact of both climate change and variability on agricultural production in MENA region. Thus, these results are more comprehensive and more informative to policymakers than the results from field trials.

scholarly journals Aesthetic Consolation: A Possible Remedy for Solastalgia in James Bradley’s Clade (2017)

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 54
Author(s):  
Abeer Mohammed Raafat Khalaf
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Western World ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Everyday Aesthetics ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Aesthetic Values ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Climate change is one of the significant and threatening problems worldwide. It has attracted the attention of scientists and politicians as well as writers and critics especially in the western world. Writers have responded by writing climate change fiction despite the challenges of representation. James Bradley, an Australian novelist and critic, is one of those writers who are deeply occupied by the impacts of climate change. He has written Clade (2017) which traces the life of Adam Leith, a climatologist, and his family descendants amid the disastrous consequences of climate change. To analyze this novel, the researcher focuses on solastalgia, and applies the approach of everyday aesthetics. In a nutshell, the paper attempts to highlight the impact of climate change, examine the relationship between the characters and their environment, and explore the possibility of adaptation and detection of aesthetic values in an environment destroyed by climate change.

scholarly journals The impact of climate change and natural disasters on food security in Indonesia: lessons learned on preserving forests sustainability

2021 ◽  
Vol 886 (1) ◽  
pp. 012090
Author(s):  
L R E Malau ◽  
A T Darhyati ◽  
Suharno
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Food Distribution ◽  
Forest Conversion ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract Food security is one of the main goals in achieving the Sustainable Development Goal’s (SDG’s). Food security, natural disasters, and climate change are thought to be interrelated. Climate change contributes to natural disasters such as floods, landslides, drought, land and forest fires, resulting in reduced food production, increased food prices, and disrupted access to food distribution. Ultimately, the impacts of climate change and natural disasters are one of the main causes of hunger and affect all dimensions of food security. This study aimed to analyze the impact of climate change, natural disasters, and other determinants on food security in Indonesia using the Tobit regression. The data used was from 33 provinces in 2010-2018. Climate change was proxied by rainfall, while natural disasters were proxied by the frequency of natural disasters and facility damage due to disasters. The results showed that food crop production, GRDP per capita, and the average years of schooling had a significant effect on increasing food security. Meanwhile, rainfall and deforestation had a significant effect on reducing food security. On the other hand, although not significant, the frequency and damage to facilities due to natural disasters harms food security. The results of this study confirmed the importance of preserving forest biodiversity as an effort to achieve food security as seen from the negative effects of rainfall and deforestation on food security. In this case, deforestation was one of the contributors to climate change which in turn had an impact on the intensity of natural disasters. To achieve food security for the achievement of the SDGs, policies to reduce deforestation or forest conversion need attention as one of the efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change and natural disasters.

scholarly journals Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on Coastal Flooding: Implications for Coastal Structures Design

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 1008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Achilleas Samaras ◽  
Theophanis Karambas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wave Propagation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Propagation Model ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Wave Propagation Model ◽  
Modelling Approach

In the present work, the impact of climate change on coastal flooding is investigated through a set of interoperable models developed by the authors, following a modular modelling approach and adapting the modelling sequence to two separate objectives with respect to inundation over large-scale areas and coastal protection structures’ design. The modelling toolbox used includes a large-scale wave propagation model, a storm-induced circulation model, and an advanced nearshore wave propagation model based on the higher order Boussinesq-type equations, all of which are presented in detail. Model capabilities are validated and applications are made for projected scenarios of climate change-induced wave and storm surge events, simulating coastal flooding over the low-lying areas of a semi-enclosed bay and testing the effects of different structures on a typical sandy beach (both in northern Greece). This work is among the few in relevant literature that incorporate a fully non-linear wave model to a modelling system aimed at representing coastal flooding. Results highlight the capabilities of the presented modelling approach and set the basis for a comprehensive evaluation of the use of advanced modelling tools for the design of coastal protection and adaptation measures against future climatic pressures.

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