scholarly journals Safe Asset Scarcity and Aggregate Demand

2016 ◽  
Vol 106 (5) ◽  
pp. 513-518 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo J. Caballero ◽  
Emmanuel Farhi ◽  
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Crucial Role ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
The Other ◽  
The Exchange Rate

We explore the consequences of safe asset scarcity on aggregate demand in a stylized IS-LM/Mundell Fleming style environment. Acute safe asset scarcity forces the economy into a “safety trap” recession. In the open economy, safe asset scarcity spreads from one country to the other via capital flows, equalizing interest rates. Acute global safe asset scarcity forces the economy into a global safety trap. The exchange rate becomes indeterminate but plays a crucial role in both the distribution and the magnitude of output adjustment across countries. Policies that increase the net supply of safe assets somewhere are output enhancing everywhere.

scholarly journals A Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastián Fanelli ◽  
Ludwig Straub
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Pecuniary Externality ◽  
Optimal Intervention ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Intervention Policy

Abstract We study a real small open economy with two key ingredients (1) partial segmentation of home and foreign bond markets and (2) a pecuniary externality that makes the real exchange rate excessively volatile in response to capital flows. Partial segmentation implies that, by intervening in the bond markets, the central bank can affect the exchange rate and the spread between home- and foreign-bond yields. Such interventions allow the central bank to address the pecuniary externality, but they are also costly, as foreigners make carry trade profits. We analytically characterize the optimal intervention policy that solves this trade-off: (1) the optimal policy leans against the wind, stabilizing the exchange rate; (2) it involves smooth spreads but allows exchange rates to jump; (3) it partly relies on “forward guidance,” with non-zero interventions even after the shock has subsided; (4) it requires credibility, in that central banks do not intervene without commitment. Finally, we shed light on the global consequences of widespread interventions, using a multi-country extension of our model. We find that, left to themselves, countries over-accumulate reserves, reducing welfare and leading to inefficiently low world interest rates.

scholarly journals Dynamic Effects of Changes in the Exchange Rate System

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naoyuki Yoshino ◽  
Sahoko Kaji ◽  
Tamon Asonuma
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Transition Analysis ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Exchange Rate

We propose a new dynamic transition analysis on the basis of a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Our proposed analysis differs from existing static and conventional dynamic analyses in that shifts from a fixed exchange rate regime to a basket peg or a floating regime are explicitly explored. We apply quantitative analysis, using data from the People's Republic of China and Thailand, and find that both economies would be better off shifting from a dollar peg to a basket peg or a floating regime over the long run. Furthermore, the longer the transition period, the greater the benefits of shifting to a basket peg regime from a dollar peg regime owing to limited volatility in interest rates. Regarding sudden shifts to a desired regime, the welfare gains are larger under a shift to a basket peg if the exchange rate fluctuates significantly.

Modelling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New Keynesian Framework

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaromir Benes ◽  
Andrew Berg ◽  
Rafael Portillo ◽  
David Vavra
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Balance Sheet Effects ◽  
Exchange Rate Management ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The authors study a wide range of hybrid inflation-targeting (IT) and managed exchange rate regimes, analysing their implications for inflation, output and the exchange rate in the presence of various domestic and external shocks. To this end, the chapter presents an open economy New Keynesian model featuring sterilized interventions in the foreign exchange (FX) market as an additional central bank instrument operating alongside the Taylor rule, and affecting the economy through portfolio balance sheet effects in the financial sector. The chapter shows that there can be advantages to combining IT with some degree of exchange rate management via FX interventions. Unlike ‘pure’ IT or exchange rate management via interest rates, FX interventions can help insulate the economy against certain shocks, especially shocks to international financial conditions. However, managing the exchange rate through FX interventions may also hinder necessary exchange rate adjustments, e.g., in the presence of terms of trade shocks.

scholarly journals ANALISIS SIMULTAN ANTARA ALIRAN MODAL, NILAI TUKAR DAN INFLASI DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2000.01 – 2012.09

Media Ekonomi ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Mardiansyah . ◽  
Dian Octaviani, ME
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Simultaneous Equation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
The Exchange Rate

<p>Globalization and the open economic enchanced the integration of financial market and the economic condition in several countries. The effects of such integration shows in the movement of capital flows between countries. The potential risks of the capital flows, such as sudden reversal, the pressure on the exchange rate and high inflation and the susceptibility on financial sector, might be be arised. The goal of this research is to analyze the relationship between capital flows, exchange rates and inflation in Indonesia period 2000.01 – 2012.09. The method used in this research is simultaneous equations method. The model equations in this study are divided into two, which are a short-term investments are proxied from portfolio investment and long-term investments proxied from foreign direct investment. The results of the first model estimates the short-term investments shows that the exchange rate and inflation does not significant affecting short-term investments, but the ratio of domestic interest rates to foreign interest has a positive and significant impact on short-term investments. While, a short-term investments has negative and significant impact on exchange rate IDR per USD and inflation positive and significant effect on exchange rate. Factors affecting the rate of inflation is SBI interest rate and the money supply. One the other hand, the results of the second model estimation shows that the exchange rate and inflation has positive and significant impact on the flow of foreign direct investment. Inflation rate does not alter the terms of the investor’s decision in investing in Indonesia, because it was followed by the improvement in economic conditions in Indonesia.<br />Keywords: Capital Flows, Exchange Rate, Inflation, Simultaneous Equation</p>

scholarly journals The Impact of Anticipated and Unanticipated Exchange Rate Variability in Ukraine

2017 ◽  
pp. 33-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viktor Shevchuk
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Exchange Rate Variability ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This article studies the impact of the anticipated and unanticipated components of the nominal effective exchange rate on Ukraine’s main macroeconomic indicators. The study uses quarterly data from 1999 to 2016 and considers the relationship with the budget balance, incomes of trading partner countries, global interest rates, and global raw material prices. Using the time-varying coefficient model (the Kalman filter), the research shows that a depreciation of the hryvnia accelerates wholesale price inflation and negatively affects the performance of GDP and industrial output – these effects were clearly visible after the financial crisis of 2008-2009). However, the research found that only unanticipated changes in the exchange rate have an impact on agricultural production. The results are justified by means of a modified AD-AS model with rational expectations that accounts for the main mechanisms of the influence of the exchange rate on aggregate demand and supply amid a high level of dollarization in the economy.

The Exchange Rate, Interest Rates and the Current Balance ln a Forward-Looking Model

1988 ◽  
Vol 125 ◽  
pp. 40-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Gurney
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
The Other ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Temporary Rise ◽  
Forward Looking

In March this year, after a year in which policy appeared to be aimed at achieving stability against EMS currencies, the pound was allowed to rise sharply in response to large capital inflows. As with many fluctuations in exchange rates, this development was puzzling in that the prospects for the balance of payments suggested that the rise in sterling would not prove sustainable. On the other hand, high UK interest rates, particularly in relation to those available in EMS countries, provided some rationale for a temporary rise. This note uses a simple forward-looking equation for the exchange rate to illustrate the implications of alternative paths for interest rates and the balance of payments. A number of simulations are presented to illustrate the key elements of this approach.

scholarly journals PENGARUH VOLATILITAS NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA

2008 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sri Liani Suselo ◽  
Hilde Dameria Sihaloho ◽  
Tarsidin Tarsidin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
The Other ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Real Exchange Rate Volatility

This paper investigates the impact of the exchange rate volatility on the economic growth in Indonesia. The model applied considers both the aggregate demand and the aggregate supply interaction and the impact of the exchange rate volatility channeled through the investment and trade.The result shows the negative impact of the exchange rate volatility either in nominal or in real, on the economic growth. Both nominal and real exchange rate volatility dampens the investment. However, the nominal exchange rate volatility lowers import while the real one lowers export and at the other side boosts import.Keywords: Economic growth, exchange rate.JEL Classification: F31, O11, O40

scholarly journals ASSET PRICE SHOCK RESPONSE TO SHOCK CAPITAL FLOW, EXCHANGE RATE AND INTEREST RATE: CASE STUDY OF 16 EMERGING MARKET COUNTRIES

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 14
Author(s):  
Rachman Guswardi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Emerging Market Countries ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Positive Shock

Capital flows to developing countries and emerging markets in the world is constantly increasing. However, the crisis that occurred in 2008 and 2011 caused concern for investors. A series of policies have been carried out in several emerging market countries to take steps prudence in controlling capital flows. This study aimed to analyze the response of asset prices to the shock caused by capital inflows, interest rates and exchange rates and analyzes the contribution of shock in capital inflows, interest rates and exchange rates on asset prices in 16 emerging market countries (India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Republic of South Africa, Mexico, Thailand, South Korea, Colombia, Philippines, Egypt, Hong Kong, Peru, Czech, Bangladesh, Hungary) in the year 2001-2015. The method used is quantitative method using Panel Vector Auto Regression models. The results of this study show that the first shock of positive capital inflows will affect asset prices, both that a positive shock on interest rates will affect asset prices, the third that the positive shock of the exchange rate would affect asset prices. The variables that have the biggest contribution in influencing asset prices is the exchange rate which further interest rates and the smallest is the capital inflows.

The long-run stability of a small, open economy under crawling peg regime

2002 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-78
Author(s):  
S. Çiftçioğlu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Output Stability ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The paper analyses the long-run (steady-state) output and price stability of a small, open economy which adopts a “crawling-peg” type of exchange-rate regime in the presence of various kinds of random shocks. Analytical and simulation results suggest that with the exception of money demand shocks, an exchange rate policy which involves a relatively higher rate of indexation of the exchange rate to price level is likely to lead to the worsening of price stability for all types of shocks. On the other hand, the impact of adopting such a policy on output stability depends on the type of the shock; for policy shocks to the exchange rate and shocks to output demand, output stability is worsened whereas for the shocks to risk premium of domestic assets, supply price of domestic output and the wage rate, better output stability is achieved in the long run.

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