History and the Sizes of Cities

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (5) ◽  
pp. 558-563 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hoyt Bleakley ◽  
Jeffrey Lin
Keyword(s):  
Path Dependence ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Equilibrium Selection ◽  
City Size ◽  
Long Run

We contrast evidence of urban path dependence with efforts to analyze calibrated models of city sizes. Recent evidence of persistent city sizes following the obsolescence of historical advantages suggests that path dependence cannot be understood as the medium-run effect of legacy capital but instead as the long-run effect of equilibrium selection. In contrast, a different, recent literature uses stylized models in which fundamentals uniquely determine city size. We show that a commonly used model is inconsistent with evidence of long run persistence in city sizes and propose several modifications that might allow for multiplicity and thus historical path dependence.

scholarly journals Competing Conventions with Costly Information Acquisition

Games ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 53
Author(s):  
Roberto Rozzi
Keyword(s):  
Information Acquisition ◽  
Evolutionary Model ◽  
Equilibrium Selection ◽  
The Other ◽  
Group Interactions ◽  
Social Coordination ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stochastic Stability Analysis ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Cost

We consider an evolutionary model of social coordination in a 2 × 2 game where two groups of players prefer to coordinate on different actions. Players can pay a cost to learn their opponent’s group: if they pay it, they can condition their actions concerning the groups. We assess the stability of outcomes in the long run using stochastic stability analysis. We find that three elements matter for the equilibrium selection: the group size, the strength of preferences, and the information’s cost. If the cost is too high, players never learn the group of their opponents in the long run. If one group is stronger in preferences for its favorite action than the other, or its size is sufficiently large compared to the other group, every player plays that group’s favorite action. If both groups are strong enough in preferences, or if none of the groups’ sizes is large enough, players play their favorite actions and miscoordinate in inter-group interactions. Lower levels of the cost favor coordination. Indeed, when the cost is low, in inside-group interactions, players always coordinate on their favorite action, while in inter-group interactions, they coordinate on the favorite action of the group that is stronger in preferences or large enough.

scholarly journals Empowering Urban Governance through Urban Science: Multi-Scale Dynamics of Urban Systems Worldwide

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 5954
Author(s):  
Juste Raimbault ◽  
Eric Denis ◽  
Denise Pumain
Keyword(s):  
Urban Growth ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Network Flows ◽  
City Size ◽  
Urban Systems ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
The World ◽  
Urban Science

Cities are facing many sustainability issues in the context of the current global interdependency characterized by an economic uncertainty coupled to climate changes, which challenge their local policies aiming to better conciliate reasonable growth with livable urban environment. The urban dynamic models developed by the so-called “urban science” can provide a useful foundation for more sustainable urban policies. It implies that their proposals have been validated by correct observations of the diversity of situations in the world. However, international comparisons of the evolution of cities often produce unclear results because national territorial frameworks are not always in strict correspondence with the dynamics of urban systems. We propose to provide various compositions of systems of cities in order to better take into account the dynamic networking of cities that go beyond regional and national territorial boundaries. Different models conceived for explaining city size and urban growth distributions enable the establishing of a correspondence between urban trajectories when observed at the level of cities and systems of cities. We test the validity and representativeness of several dynamic models of complex urban systems and their variations across regions of the world, at the macroscopic scale of systems of cities. The originality of the approach resides in the way it considers spatial interaction and evolutionary path dependence as major features in the general behavior of urban entities. The models studied include diverse and complementary processes, such as economic exchanges, diffusion of innovations, and physical network flows. Complex systems dynamics is in principle unpredictable, but contextualizing it regarding demographic, income, and resource components may help in minimizing the forecasting errors. We use, among others, a new unique source correlating population and built-up footprint at world scale: the Global Human Settlement built-up areas (GHS-BU). Following the methodology and results already obtained in the European GeoDiverCity project, including USA, Europe, and BRICS countries, we complete them with this new dataset at world scale and different models. This research helps in further empirical testing of the hypotheses of the evolutionary theory of urban systems and partially revising them. We also suggest research directions towards the coupling of these models into a multi-scale model of urban growth.

Shareholder Value, Management Culture and Production Regimes in the Transformation of the German Chemical-Pharmaceutical Industry

2002 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 309-325 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sigurt Vitols
Keyword(s):  
Recent Literature ◽  
Shareholder Value ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Pharmaceutical Companies ◽  
Drivers Of Change ◽  
Management Culture ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Production Regime ◽  
National Systems

One of the greatest points of controversy in the recent literature in political economy is the extent to which “shareholder value” oriented institutional investors are drivers of change in national systems of corporate governance. This article argues that the key question is how management cultures shape managerial responses to pressures for change from capital markets. Empirical evidence for this argument is provided through an examination of changes since the mid-1990s at the “Big Three” German integrated chemical/pharmaceutical companies: Hoechst, Bayer and BASF. Despite facing similar demands from shareholder-value oriented investors, management at the three companies have pursued quite different strategies. The end result, however, may be the same from a production regime perspective, that is, the long-run withdrawal of “Big Pharma” from Germany as a location for R&D due to a more favorable institutional framework in the US.

EVOLUTIONARY ALGORITHMS IN MACROECONOMIC MODELS

2000 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 373-414 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jasmina Arifovic
Keyword(s):  
Evolutionary Algorithms ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Equilibrium Selection ◽  
Transitional Dynamics ◽  
Rational Expectations Equilibrium ◽  
Macroeconomic Models ◽  
Stability Of Equilibria ◽  
Long Run

This paper provides a survey of the applications of evolutionary algorithms in macroeconomic models. Discussion is organized around the issues related to stability of equilibria, equilibrium selection, transitional dynamics, and the long-run evolutionary dynamics different from rational-expectations equilibrium outcomes. The survey also discusses criteria that can be used to evaluate the performance and usefulness of evolutionary algorithms in the macroeconomic context.

scholarly journals ROBUSTNESS OF ADAPTIVE EXPECTATIONS AS AN EQUILIBRIUM SELECTION DEVICE

2003 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Van Zandt ◽  
Martin Lettau
Keyword(s):  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Equilibrium Selection ◽  
Steady States ◽  
Olg Model ◽  
Adaptive Expectations ◽  
Learning Rules ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Adaptive Expectation ◽  
Endogenous Variables

Dynamic models in which agents' behavior depends on expectations of future prices or other endogenous variables can have steady states that are stationary equilibria for a wide variety of expectations rules, including rational expectations. When there are multiple steady states, stability is a criterion for selecting among them as predictions of long-run outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to study how sensitive stability is to certain details of the expectations rules, in a simple OLG model with constant government debt that is financed through seigniorage. We compare simple recursive learning rules, learning rules with vanishing gain, and OLS learning, and also relate these to expectational stability. One finding is that two adaptive expectation rules that differ only in whether they use current information can have opposite stability properties.

scholarly journals Urban transport in world metropolises: A comparative analysis and key features of energy consumption

Spatium ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 46-58
Author(s):  
Bojan Vracarevic
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Urban Form ◽  
Urban Transport ◽  
City Size ◽  
Urban Spatial Structure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Size Population ◽  
Transport Patterns

Most theoretical and empirical research on the subject of urban transport energy consumption has addressed the role of urban form and urban spatial structure (primarily population density and degree of centralisation), city size (population and/or area), the level of economic development, transport patterns, and transportation infrastructure. Our analysis encompasses a wide range of socio-economic, spatial, transport and infrastructure indicators, as well as energy efficiency and energy consumption indicators in a sample of 35 world cities, covering the period from 1960 to 2005. Comparative analysis indicates there are significant differences regarding the determinants of urban transport energy consumption, especially between the US and Australian automobile-dependent cities, on the one hand, and the wealthy Asian metropolises, on the other. Despite some recent positive trends (a decline in automobile vehiclekilometres and reduction in urban transport energy consumption), a large number of cities in the developed world still rely predominantly on cars, while sustainable modes of urban transport play an almost negligible role. Due to trends of urbanization, demographic growth and a rise in living standards, the main focus of attention has shifted to metropolises in developing countries. In the long run, the urban form itself is particularly significant, not only because it critically influences transport demand, but also because of its inertness.

A short story of the Phillips curve: from Phillips to Friedman… and back?

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 493-516 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonella Stirati ◽  
Walter Paternesi Meloni
Keyword(s):  
Short Story ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Presidential Address ◽  
Alternative Theory ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Macroeconomic Theory ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Change Of Perspective ◽  
Original Approach

A major contribution of Friedman's 1968 presidential address was the introduction of the long-run vertical Phillips curve. That view, which is consistent with neoclassical foundations, has become so profoundly entrenched in macroeconomists' thinking that increasing evidence of ‘hysteresis’ has not as yet dislodged it. The prevailing notion of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is constructed in terms of the ‘natural’ unemployment rate, which has allowed for some changes regarding its microeconomic determinants. However, the macroeconomic features of Friedman's natural rate and the NAIRU remain very much the same and unchanged. The blatant path-dependence of empirically estimated NAIRUs creates a dissociation between macroeconomic theory and empirics which, in our view, is unacceptable and demands a change of perspective. Adopting an alternative theory of distribution and employment might rehabilitate the original approach taken by Phillips vis-à-vis Friedman's legacy.

Path dependence, the COVID-19 crisis, and inequality in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 198-206
Author(s):  
Daniele Tavani
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Historical Trajectory

This paper considers both secular and medium-run trends to argue that the US economy was already vulnerable to shocks before the COVID-19 crisis. Long-run trends have shown a pattern of secular stagnation and increasing inequality since the 1980s, while the economy has displayed hysteresis during the sluggish recovery from the Great Recession. The immediate policy response through the Coronavirus, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act highlighted the coordinating role of fiscal policy on the economy, but also showcased limits, especially with regard to the paycheck protection program. The historical trajectory of the US economy before the COVID-19 crisis cast serious doubts on recent cries of ‘overheating’ and inflationary pressures that should supposedly arise from the $1.9 trillion relief package just signed into law by President Biden. Projecting forward to the long run, redistribution policies may provide useful first steps in reversing the trends of rising inequality and declining productivity growth that the US economy has seen over the last few decades.

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