scholarly journals The Evolution of Time Preference with Aggregate Uncertainty

2009 ◽  
Vol 99 (5) ◽  
pp. 1925-1953 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arthur J. Robson ◽  
Larry Samuelson
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Time Preference ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Aggregate Uncertainty ◽  
Intertemporal Preferences ◽  
Survival And Reproduction ◽  
Exponential Discounting

We examine the evolutionary foundations of intertemporal preferences. When all the risk affecting survival and reproduction is idiosyncratic, evolution selects for agents who maximize the discounted sum of expected utility, discounting at the sum of the population growth rate and the mortality rate. Aggregate uncertainty concerning survival rates leads to discount rates that exceed the sum of population growth rate and death rate, and can push agents away from exponential discounting. (JEL D11, D81, D91)

Diagnosing declining grassland wader populations using simple matrix models

2009 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 127-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lia Hemerik ◽  
Chris Klok ◽  
Maja Roodbergen
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Matrix Models ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Adult Stage ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Leslie Matrix ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Demographic Parameters ◽  
Survival And Reproduction

AbstractMany populations of wader species have shown a strong decline in number in Western-Europe in recent years. The use of simple population models such as matrix models can contribute to conserve these populations by identifying the most profitable management measures. Parameterization of such models is often hampered by the availability of demographic data (survival and reproduction). In particular, data on survival in the pre-adult (immature) stage of wader species that remain in wintering areas outside Europe are notoriously difficult to obtain, and are therefore virtually absent in the literature. To diagnose population decline in the wader species; Black-tailed Godwit, Curlew, Lapwing, Oystercatcher, and Redshank, we extended an existing modelling framework in which incomplete demographic data can be analysed, developed for species with a pre-adult stage of one year. The framework is based on a Leslie matrix model with three parameters: yearly reproduction (number of fledglings per pair), yearly pre-adult (immature) and yearly adult (mature) survival. The yearly population growth rate of these populations and the relative sensitivity of this rate to changes in survival and reproduction parameters (the elasticity) were calculated numerically and, if possible, analytically. The results showed a decrease in dependence on reproduction and an increase in pre-adult survival of the population growth rate with an increase in the duration of the pre-adult stage. In general, adult survival had the highest elasticity, but elasticity of pre-adult survival increased with time to first reproduction, a result not reported earlier. Model results showed that adult survival and reproduction estimates reported for populations of Redshank and Curlew were too low to maintain viable populations. Based on the elasticity patterns and the scope for increase in actual demographic parameters we inferred that conservation of the Redshank and both Curlew populations should focus on reproduction. For one Oystercatcher and the Black-tailed Godwit populations we suggested a focus on both reproduction and pre-adult survival. For the second Oystercatcher population pre-adult survival seemed the most promising target for conservation. And for the Lapwing populations all demographic parameters should be considered.

scholarly journals Reef manta ray life history and demography: is it really all about survival?

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel M Smallegange ◽  
Isabelle BC van der Ouderaa ◽  
Yara Tibiriçá
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Survival Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Lifetime Reproductive Success ◽  
Annual Survival ◽  
Manta Ray ◽  
Reef Manta Ray

Background. The trade in gill plates of devil and manta rays has increased greatly over the last two decades. The resulting increased mortality, in addition to mortality caused by by-catch, means that many ray populations are declining in size. The aim of this study was to ascertain the main demographic drivers of population change in reef manta rays (Manta alfredi) to increase our understanding of their demography and hence provide insight into potential conservation measures. Methods. We developed a population projection model for reef manta rays and used published life history data to parameterise the model and also used these data as points of reference to compare our model output to. Because little is known about yearling and juvenile survival of reef manta rays, we conducted our analyses across a range of plausible survival rate values of yearlings, juveniles, and also adults. Results. The model accurately captured observed patterns of variation in population growth rate, lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time for different reef manta ray populations around the world. Varying the survival rates of the different life stages revealed that increasing adult annual survival rate always positively and additively affected population growth rate, lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time. Variation in yearling and juvenile annual survival rate, however, had different and varying effects on the latter three population descriptors, highlighting the importance of obtaining accurate estimates of these survival rates from natural populations. Our elasticity analysis revealed that for both declining and stable populations, the population growth rate is most sensitive to changes in either juvenile or adult survival rate, depending on yearling and adult annual survival rate values. Discussion. Many reef manta ray populations are declining, resulting in local extinction unless effective conservation measures are taken. Based on our detailed demographic analysis, we suggest that reef manta ray conservation would particularly benefit from focusing on increasing juvenile and adult survival.

scholarly journals Reef manta ray life history and demography: is it really all about survival?

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel M Smallegange ◽  
Isabelle BC van der Ouderaa ◽  
Yara Tibiriçá
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Survival Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Lifetime Reproductive Success ◽  
Annual Survival ◽  
Manta Ray ◽  
Reef Manta Ray

Background. The trade in gill plates of devil and manta rays has increased greatly over the last two decades. The resulting increased mortality, in addition to mortality caused by by-catch, means that many ray populations are declining in size. The aim of this study was to ascertain the main demographic drivers of population change in reef manta rays (Manta alfredi) to increase our understanding of their demography and hence provide insight into potential conservation measures. Methods. We developed a population projection model for reef manta rays and used published life history data to parameterise the model and also used these data as points of reference to compare our model output to. Because little is known about yearling and juvenile survival of reef manta rays, we conducted our analyses across a range of plausible survival rate values of yearlings, juveniles, and also adults. Results. The model accurately captured observed patterns of variation in population growth rate, lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time for different reef manta ray populations around the world. Varying the survival rates of the different life stages revealed that increasing adult annual survival rate always positively and additively affected population growth rate, lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time. Variation in yearling and juvenile annual survival rate, however, had different and varying effects on the latter three population descriptors, highlighting the importance of obtaining accurate estimates of these survival rates from natural populations. Our elasticity analysis revealed that for both declining and stable populations, the population growth rate is most sensitive to changes in either juvenile or adult survival rate, depending on yearling and adult annual survival rate values. Discussion. Many reef manta ray populations are declining, resulting in local extinction unless effective conservation measures are taken. Based on our detailed demographic analysis, we suggest that reef manta ray conservation would particularly benefit from focusing on increasing juvenile and adult survival.

Life history of a neotropical marsupial: Evaluating potential contributions of survival and reproduction to population growth rate

2013 ◽  
Vol 78 (6) ◽  
pp. 406-411 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariana Silva Ferreira ◽  
Maja Kajin ◽  
Marcus Vinícius Vieira ◽  
Priscilla Lóra Zangrandi ◽  
Rui Cerqueira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Life History ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Survival And Reproduction ◽  
History Of

scholarly journals Effects of yearling, juvenile and adult survival on reef manta ray (Manta alfredi) demography

PeerJ ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. e2370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel M. Smallegange ◽  
Isabelle B.C. van der Ouderaa ◽  
Yara Tibiriçá
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Survival Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Generation Time ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Lifetime Reproductive Success ◽  
Manta Ray ◽  
Reef Manta Ray

BackgroundThe trade in manta ray gill plates has considerably increased over the last two decades. The resulting increases in ray mortality, in addition to mortality caused by by-catch, has caused many ray populations to decrease in size. The aim of this study was to ascertain how yearling and juvenile growth and survival, and adult survival and reproduction affect reef manta ray (Manta alfredi) population change, to increase our understanding of manta ray demography and thereby improve conservation research and measures for these fish.MethodsWe developed a population projection model for reef manta rays, and used published life history data on yearling and juvenile growth and adult reproduction to parameterise the model. Because little is known about reef manta ray yearling and juvenile survival, we conducted our analyses using a range of plausible survival rate values for yearlings, juveniles and adults.ResultsThe model accurately captured observed variation in population growth rate, lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time in different reef manta ray populations. Our demographic analyses revealed a range of population consequences in response to variation in demographic rates. For example, an increase in yearling or adult survival rates always elicited greater responses in population growth rate, lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time than the same increase in juvenile survival rate. The population growth rate increased linearly, but lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time increased at an accelerating rate with increasing yearling or adult survival rates. Hence, even a small increase in survival rate could increase lifetime reproductive success by one pup, and cohort generation time by several years. Elasticity analyses revealed that, depending on survival rate values of all life stages, the population growth rate is either most sensitive to changes in the rate with which juveniles survive but stay juveniles (i.e., do not mature into adults) or to changes in adult survival rate. However, when assessing these results against estimates on population growth and adult survival rates for populations off the coasts of Mozambique and Japan, we found that the population growth rate is predicted to be always most sensitive to changes in the adult survival rate.DiscussionIt is important to gain an in-depth understanding of reef manta ray life histories, particularly of yearling and adult survival rates, as these can influence reef manta ray population dynamics in a variety of ways. For declining populations in particular, it is crucial to know which life stage should be targeted for their conservation. For one such declining population off the coast of Mozambique, adult annual survival rate has the greatest effect on population growth, and by increasing adult survival by protecting adult aggregation sites, this population’s decline could be halted or even reversed.

scholarly journals Biological scaling in green algae: the role of cell size and geometry

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Helena Bestová ◽  
Jules Segrestin ◽  
Klaus von Schwartzenberg ◽  
Pavel Škaloud ◽  
Thomas Lenormand ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Internal Diffusion ◽  
Scaling Exponent ◽  
Power Scaling ◽  
Nutrient Distribution ◽  
Metabolic Scaling ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Size And Morphology

AbstractThe Metabolic Scaling Theory (MST), hypothesizes limitations of resource-transport networks in organisms and predicts their optimization into fractal-like structures. As a result, the relationship between population growth rate and body size should follow a cross-species universal quarter-power scaling. However, the universality of metabolic scaling has been challenged, particularly across transitions from bacteria to protists to multicellulars. The population growth rate of unicellulars should be constrained by external diffusion, ruling nutrient uptake, and internal diffusion, operating nutrient distribution. Both constraints intensify with increasing size possibly leading to shifting in the scaling exponent. We focused on unicellular algae Micrasterias. Large size and fractal-like morphology make this species a transitional group between unicellular and multicellular organisms in the evolution of allometry. We tested MST predictions using measurements of growth rate, size, and morphology-related traits. We showed that growth scaling of Micrasterias follows MST predictions, reflecting constraints by internal diffusion transport. Cell fractality and density decrease led to a proportional increase in surface area with body mass relaxing external constraints. Complex allometric optimization enables to maintain quarter-power scaling of population growth rate even with a large unicellular plan. Overall, our findings support fractality as a key factor in the evolution of biological scaling.

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