scholarly journals Going Negative at the Zero Lower Bound: The Effects of Negative Nominal Interest Rates

2021 ◽  
Vol 111 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-40
Author(s):  
Mauricio Ulate
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Bank Profitability ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Transmission Of Monetary Policy

After the Great Recession several central banks started setting negative nominal interest rates in an expansionary attempt, but the effectiveness of this measure remains unclear. Negative rates can stimulate the economy by lowering the rates that commercial banks charge on loans, but they can also erode bank profitability by squeezing deposit spreads. This paper studies the effects of negative rates in a new DSGE model where banks intermediate the transmission of monetary policy. I use bank-level data to calibrate the model and find that monetary policy in negative territory is between 60 and 90 percent as effective as in positive territory. (JEL E12, E32, E43, E52, E58, G21)

Commercial Banks

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Homburg
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Term Structures ◽  
Market Interest Rate ◽  
Money Creation

Chapter 7 introduces commercial banks as creators of money and integrates them into the general equilibrium framework. The motivation to deviate from the standard approach that neglects commercial banks and entrusts all money creation to a central bank is twofold. First, apart from currency, central banks do not provide money directly but rather supply reserves that enable banks to create deposits. After the Great Recession, this transmission process staggered: increases in reserves outpaced increases in deposits. Any analysis of the monetary expansions starting in 2008 would remain incomplete and unsatisfactory unless it took account of this fact. Second, central banks normally control an overnight interbank interest rate that differs from the market interest rate on bonds. Considering an interbank market and its relationship with the bond market makes it possible to derive a term structure of interest rates. This is important because inverse term structures are good predictors for recessions.

Lässt sich die Geldschöpfung der Geschäftsbanken noch kontrollieren? – Geldpolitik seit der jüngsten Finanzkrise 2007/2008

2018 ◽  
Vol 87 (3) ◽  
pp. 47-63
Author(s):  
Mathias Binswanger
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
The Past ◽  
Monetary Authorities ◽  
Money Creation ◽  
Recent Financial Crisis

Zusammenfassung: Als Folge der jüngsten Finanzkrise ist der Einfluss der Zentralbanken auf die Geldschöpfung weitgehend verloren gegangen. Denn die Kontrolle über Reserven funktioniert nur solange, wie diese knapp sind und deren Bezug an bestimmte Bedingungen geknüpft werden kann. Seither halten die Geschäftsbanken in den ökonomisch wichtigsten Ländern de facto dermaßen viele Reserven, dass sie nicht mehr auf die jeweilige Zentralbank angewiesen sind. Diese Entwicklung lässt sich sowohl für die FED als auch für die EZB aufzeigen. Dies führt zu geldpolitisch neuen Herausforderungen, die bisher kaum beachtet wurden. Die Einflussmöglichkeit der Zentralbanken auf den Geldschöpfungsprozess der Geschäftsbanken wurde noch nie in so großem Stil ausgehebelt. Deshalb müssen Zentralbanken in Zukunft ihr Repertoire an geldpolitischen Massnahmen erweitern. Nur mit dem Drehen an der Zinsschraube wird man den Geldschöpfungsprozess in Zukunft kaum mehr in gewünschter Weise beeinflussen können. Summary: As a result of the recent financial crisis, the influence of central banks on money creation has largely disappeared. Controlling this process only works as long as money creation of commercial banks also leads to a need for additional reserves from the central bank. However, the large asset purchase programs of monetary authorities after the financial crises resulted in an enormous increase in reserves at commercial banks. Therefore, commercial banks have enough reserves to create additional money at large amounts and do not depend on central banks any more. This development is indicative for both the FED and the ECB. Therefore central banks face the challenge how they can restore their influence on the process of money creation. Just lowering or increasing interest rates, which was the major way of conducting monetary policy in the past, will not work anymore in the future.

Unconventional monetary policy in a nonlinear quadratic model

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Timm Faulwasser ◽  
Marco Gross ◽  
Willi Semmler ◽  
Prakash Loungani
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Credit Spreads ◽  
Dynamic State ◽  
Quadratic Model ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
The Great Recession

AbstractAfter the financial market meltdown and the Great Recession of the years 2007–9, the financial market-macro link has become an important issue in monetary policy modeling. We develop a dynamic model that contains a nonlinear Phillips curve, a dynamic output equation, and a nonlinear credit flow equation – capturing the importance of credit cycles, risk premia, and credit spreads. Our Nonlinear Quadratic Model (NLQ) model has three dynamic state equations and a quadratic objective function. It can be used to evaluate the response of central banks to the Great Recession in moving from conventional to unconventional monetary policy. We solve the model with a new numerical procedure using estimated parameters for the euro area. We conduct simulations to explore the (de)stabilizing effects of the nonlinearities in the model. We demonstrate that credit flows, risk premia, and credit spreads play an important role as an amplification mechanism and in affecting the transmission of monetary policy. We thereby highlight the importance of the natural rate of interest as an anchor for a central bank target and the weight it places on the credit flows for the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy. Our model is similar in structure compared to larger scale macro-econometric models which many central banks employ.

scholarly journals Raising Interest Rates: IOER vs. OMO: Interest On Excess Reserves Vs Open Market Operations

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 142 ◽  
Author(s):  
William H. Carlson ◽  
Conway L. Lackman
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Open Market ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Excess Reserves ◽  
Policy Control ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
The Government

We demonstrate that IOER should make the excess reserves even larger, continuing the problem of monetary policy control and rewarding the banks for their policy errors fostering the Great Recession by giving them risk free returns on the $2.5 trillion of idle funds that are benefiting no one except the banks themselves, or having the banks invest those idle funds in some useful manner such as helping finance the government deficit and fix our roads and bridges. The number 1 priority should be to get rid of the troublesome excess reserves and utilizing open market operations (OMO).

Business Loans and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

2018 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 925-965 ◽  
Author(s):  
Santiago Barraza ◽  
Andrea Civelli ◽  
Nicola Zaniboni
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Credit Supply ◽  
Downward Shift ◽  
Transmission Of Monetary Policy

We study the transmission mechanism of monetary policy through business loans and illustrate subtle aspects of its functioning that relate to the contractual characteristics and the borrower–lender types of loans. We show that the puzzling increase in business loans in response to monetary tightening, documented before the Great Recession, is largely driven by drawdowns from existing commitments at large banks. Spot loans also rise and take a considerable amount of time to adjust. Banks, nonetheless, do curtail credit supply by shortening maturities of new loans. Following the Great Recession, the mechanism has worked differently, with loan responses to monetary tightening displaying a significant downward shift.

New Chicago Views on Inflation Control: The Neo-Fisherian Approach and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

2019 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-87
Author(s):  
Peter Spahn
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Inflation Target ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates

Abstract Whereas in former times, the ‘Chicago View’ in monetary policy stood for the Quantity Theory and money supply control, it is now the centre of unconventional approaches in macro theory. The Neo-Fisherian proposal suggests, in the case of low inflation and nominal interest rates pegged to the zero-lower bound, to increase policy rates immediately to the long-run equilibrium value that corresponds to the ‘natural’ real interest rate and the inflation target. The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level believes that goods prices jump to a level that validates the long-run sustainability condition of government debt even if central banks abstain from monetising. Both views are criticized for analytical and empirical reasons. Zusammenfassung Während in früheren Zeiten die ‘Chicago-Sicht’ in der Geldpolitik für die Quantitätstheorie und das Konzept der Geldmengensteuerung stand, werden heute damit unkonventionelle Positionen in der makroökonomischen Theorie assoziiert. Der neue Fisher-Ansatz empfiehlt, im Fall niedriger Inflation und einer Beschränkung durch die Null-Zins-Grenze die Zentralbankzinsen direkt auf das Niveau anzuheben, dass durch den ‘natürlichen’ Realzins und die Zielinflationsrate bestimmt ist. Die Fiskalische Theorie der Preise behauptet, dass das Güterpreisniveau auf einen Wert springt, der die langfristige reale Tragfähigkeit der Staatsschulden sichert, selbst wenn die Notenbank keine Monetisierung betreibt. Beide Positionen können empirisch nicht überzeugen und werden einer analytischen Kritik unterzogen. JEL Classification: E52, E58

scholarly journals Robust Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty About the Lower Bound

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Tillmann
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
True Location ◽  
Discretionary Monetary Policy

AbstractCentral banks face uncertainty about the true location of the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. We model optimal discretionary monetary policy during a liquidity trap when the central bank designs policy that is robust with respect to the location of the ELB. If the central bank fears the worst-case location of the ELB, monetary conditions will be more expansionary in the period before the liquidity trap.

scholarly journals FOREIGN EXPERIENCE OF REFINANCING OF COMMERCIAL BANKS

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viktoriia Yankovska ◽  
Olga Telepneva ◽  
Nadiia Spivakova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Business Activity ◽  
Foreign Experience ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The Interest Rate

The article presents a morphological assessment of the concept of "refinancing of commercial banks" based on the legal framework and definitions of well-known world and Ukrainian scientists and economists. There given a definition of the concept of "refinancing" which means that refinancing is a comprehensive system of monetary policy implementation that is conducted in favor of commercial banks for the recovery of bank resources through such instruments as credit auction, bills of exchange, securities collateral. The refinancing policy of the central banks is different in each country but there are some exceptions to its management. The central bank with a change in the interest rate can influence the rates on commercial banks loans, the level of inflation in the country and the exchange rate of the national currency that is to implement monetary policy. Lowering of interest rates entails increased business activity and rising inflation while rising interest rates have seen a decline in business activity, falling inflation and strengthening the national currency. National banks regulate the domestic exchange rate at the interest rate and the economy as a whole. The formation of the refinancing rate by the National Bank of Ukraine requires constant monitoring that is given the economic situation of the state. Foreign experience in forming the refinancing rate and using a successful mechanism is an important element in building an effective banking system. The foreign experience of the refinancing rate formation by the central banks of the world was monitored. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of the dynamics of the refinancing rate of countries such as Japan, the United States, Australia, Great Britain and China. The main priorities that the central bank should be guided by when setting the refinancing rate have been identified. Changes in the discount rate of the National Bank of Ukraine for the last seven years and the factors influencing the decision to change the interest rate are analyzed. The priority tasks to be set by the Government of Ukraine is to stabilize the financial condition of the country have been identified. Ways to improve the mechanism of refinancing of commercial banks in the economic conditions of Ukraine are outlined.

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