scholarly journals Microeconomic Origins of Macroeconomic Tail Risks

2017 ◽  
Vol 107 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daron Acemoglu ◽  
Asuman Ozdaglar ◽  
Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Normal Distribution ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Special Role ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Economic Downturns

Using a multisector general equilibrium model, we show that the interplay of idiosyncratic microeconomic shocks and sectoral heterogeneity results in systematic departures in the likelihood of large economic downturns relative to what is implied by the normal distribution. Such departures can emerge even though GDP fluctuations are approximately normally distributed away from the tails, highlighting the different nature of large economic downturns from regular business-cycle fluctuations. We further demonstrate the special role of input-output linkages in generating tail comovements, whereby large recessions involve not only significant GDP contractions, but also large simultaneous declines across a wide range of industries. (JEL D57, E16, E23, E32)

scholarly journals IDENTIFYING NEWS SHOCKS WITH FORECAST DATA

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yasuo Hirose ◽  
Takushi Kurozumi
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
News Shocks ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Forecast Data ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

The empirical importance of news shocks—anticipated future shocks—in business cycle fluctuations has been explored by using only actual data when estimating models augmented with news shocks. This paper additionally exploits forecast data to identify news shocks in a canonical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The estimated model shows new empirical evidence that technology news shocks are a major source of fluctuations in US output growth. Exploiting the forecast data not only generates more precise estimates of news shocks and other parameters in the model, but also increases the contribution of technology news shocks to the fluctuations.

scholarly journals How Important Are Sectoral Shocks?

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 254-280 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enghin Atalay
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Production Functions ◽  
Aggregate Output ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Sectoral Shocks ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Input Prices

I quantify the contribution of sectoral shocks to business cycle fluctuations in aggregate output. I develop and estimate a multi-industry general equilibrium model in which each industry employs the material and capital goods produced by other sectors. Using data on US industries' input prices and input choices, I find that the goods produced by different industries are complements to one another as inputs in downstream industries' production functions. These complementarities indicate that industry-specific shocks are substantially more important than previously thought, accounting for at least half of aggregate volatility. (JEL D12, D24, E23, E32, L14)

scholarly journals News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges

2014 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 993-1074 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Beaudry ◽  
Franck Portier
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Economic Fluctuations ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Widespread Belief ◽  
Way Of Thinking ◽  
The Many

There is a widespread belief that changes in expectations may be an important independent driver of economic fluctuations. The news view of business cycles offers a formalization of this perspective. In this paper we discuss mechanisms by which changes in agents' information, due to the arrival of news, can cause business cycle fluctuations driven by expectational change, and we review the empirical evidence aimed at evaluating their relevance. In particular, we highlight how the literature on news and business cycles offers a coherent way of thinking about aggregate fluctuations, while at the same time we emphasize the many challenges that must be addressed before a proper assessment of the role of news in business cycles can be established. (JEL D83, D84, E13, E32, O33)

scholarly journals Business Cycles in Algerian Economy: A Bayesian DSGE Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-100
Author(s):  
Abdelsalam BOUKHEROUFA
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Output Fluctuations ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

The main objective of this paper is to highlight the most important shocks that drives the business cycles in the Algerian economy. Using Bayesian estimation techniques, we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) using four time series of the Algerian macroeconomics. Through this estimated model, which succeeded in capturing the dynamics of the Algerian economy data, we found three main results: First, the main causes of business cycle fluctuations in the Algerian economy are aggregate demand shocks. Second, the of government spending shock play the most important role in output fluctuations. Third, empirical results show evidences of procyclical in government spending policies.

scholarly journals The role of inventories for the propagation of aggregate fluctuations: lessons for Bulgaria (1999–2019)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksandar Vasilev
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Consumption Volatility ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
The Government ◽  
Rbc Models ◽  
Quantitative Importance

PurposeIn this study, inventories are introduced as a productive input into a real-business-cycle (RBC) setup augmented with the government.Design/methodology/approachThe model is calibrated to Bulgarian data for the period 1999–2019. The quantitative importance of the presence of inventories is investigated.FindingsThe quantitative effect of inventories is found to be important: decreasing consumption volatility and increasing employment variability. Those results, however, are at the expense of decreasing wage volatility and increasing investment volatility, and generally worsening the contemporaneous correlations of the main variables with output.Originality/valueFluctuations in inventory levels matter for business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria, which is a novel result. Still, there is a need for more research on the incorporation of inventories into RBC models to better fit the Bulgarian experience.

Risk Shocks

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence J. Christiano ◽  
Roberto Motto ◽  
Massimo Rostagno
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Dynamic General Equilibrium ◽  
General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Dynamic General Equilibrium Model ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Idiosyncratic Uncertainty ◽  
Over Time

We augment a standard monetary dynamic general equilibrium model to include a Bernanke-Gertler-Gilchrist financial accelerator mechanism. We fit the model to US data, allowing the volatility of cross-sectional idiosyncratic uncertainty to fluctuate over time. We refer to this measure of volatility as risk. We find that fluctuations in risk are the most important shock driving the business cycle. (JEL D81, D82, E32, E44, L26)

ASYMMETRY AND THE AMPLITUDE OF BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS: A QUANTITATIVE INVESTIGATION OF THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL FRICTIONS

2016 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manoj Atolia ◽  
John Gibson ◽  
Milton Marquis
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Financial Frictions ◽  
Quantitative Investigation ◽  
Macroeconomic Volatility ◽  
Access To Credit ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Key Features ◽  
The Business Cycle

We examine the quantitative significance of financial frictions that reduce firms' access to credit in explaining asymmetric business cycles characterized by disproportionately severe downturns. Using rate spread data to calibrate the severity of these frictions, we successfully match several key features of U.S. data. Specifically, although output and consumption are relatively symmetric (with output being slightly more asymmetric), investment and hours worked display significant asymmetry over the business cycle. We also demonstrate that our financial frictions are capable of significantly amplifying adverse shocks during severe downturns. Although the data suggest that these frictions are only active occasionally, our results indicate that they are still a significant source of macroeconomic volatility over the business cycle.

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