scholarly journals Real Exchange Rates and Sectoral Productivity in the Eurozone

2018 ◽  
Vol 108 (6) ◽  
pp. 1543-1581 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Berka ◽  
Michael B. Devereux ◽  
Charles Engel
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Rate Variation ◽  
Productivity Shocks ◽  
Sectoral Productivity ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rates ◽  
Cross Country

We investigate the link between real exchange rates and sectoral TFP for eurozone countries. We show that real exchange rate variation, both cross-country and time-series, closely accords with an amended Balassa-Samuelson interpretation, incorporating sectoral productivity shocks and a labor market wedge. We construct a DSGE model to generate a cross section and time series of real exchange rates to compare to data. Estimates from simulated regressions are very similar to estimates for eurozone data. Our findings contrast with previous studies that have found little relationship between productivity and real exchange rates among high-income countries that have floating nominal exchange rates. (JEL E12, E23, E24, F31, F33, F43)

scholarly journals Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
M S Eichenbaum ◽  
B K Johannsen ◽  
S T Rebelo
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Medium Size ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rates

Abstract This article studies how the monetary policy regime affects the relative importance of nominal exchange rates and inflation rates in shaping the response of real exchange rates to shocks. We document two facts about inflation-targeting countries. First, the current real exchange rate predicts future changes in the nominal exchange rate. Second, the real exchange rate is a poor predictor of future inflation rates. We estimate a medium-size, open-economy DSGE model that accounts quantitatively for these facts as well as other empirical properties of real and nominal exchange rates. The key estimated shocks that drive the dynamics of exchange rates and their covariance with inflation are disturbances to the foreign demand for dollar-denominated bonds.

INVESTMENT AND REAL EXCHANGE RATES IN STICKY PRICE MODELS

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrique Martínez-García ◽  
Jens Søndergaard
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Monetary Shocks ◽  
Productivity Shocks ◽  
Exogenous Shocks

This paper investigates how the inclusion of capital in the workhorse new open economy macro model affects its ability to generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates. We show that capital accumulation facilitates intertemporal consumption smoothing and significantly reduces the volatility of the real exchange rate. Nonetheless, monetary and investment-specific technology (IST) shocks still induce more real exchange rate volatility and less consumption comovement than productivity shocks (with or without capital). We find that endogenous persistence is particularly sensitive to the inertia of the monetary policy rule even with persistent exogenous shocks. However, irrespective of whether capital is present, productivity and IST shocks trigger highly persistent real exchange rates, whereas monetary shocks do not. Moreover, we point out that IST shocks tend to generate countercyclical real exchange rates—unlike productivity or monetary shocks—but have the counterfactual effect of also producing excessive investment volatility and countercyclical consumption.

scholarly journals Analisis Kurs, Inflasi dan Konsumsi Beras Perkapita Terhadap Impor Beras Di Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-207
Author(s):  
Chica Kurniawan ◽  
Khairil Anwar ◽  
Fanny Nailufar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Consumption Patterns ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

This study analyzed the relationship between exchange rates, inflation, andrice consumption per capita on rice imports in Indonesia. The data used inthis study are secondary data during the 2007-2018 period and by 6 mainrice exporting countries. The analysis tool used was the panel data analysismethod (a combination of cross-section and time-series) with the OrdinaryLeast Square (OLS) approach. The results indicated that the relationshipbetween exchange rate and inflation did not affect the level of rice imports inIndonesia because the exchange rate and inflation cannot influenceconsumption and import needs in Indonesia. Meanwhile, per capita riceconsumption also did not have a significant effect on rice imports inIndonesia because there has been a change in consumption patterns at thehead of household level in Indonesia so that the level of rice consumptioncontinues to decline each year.

The Sterling Effective Exchange Rate and Other Measures of UK Competitiveness

2005 ◽  
Vol 191 ◽  
pp. 54-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Amanda Choy ◽  
Dawn Holland ◽  
Rebecca Riley
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Relative Prices ◽  
Bilateral Exchange ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rates ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Summary Measures ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Movements in exchange rates attract much attention, both for the signals they may contain about future inflation prospects and for their implications for the competitiveness of firms. However, movements in bilateral exchange rates, for instance in sterling against the dollar or the euro, do not convey enough information for either policymakers or for firms except in relation to specific bilateral transactions. It is useful to construct summary measures of exchange rate movements, and there are a number of ways of doing this. The choice of measure depends upon the use to which it is to be put. Some measures, such as the effective exchange rate, are summary indicators, whilst others such as export competitive indices are more relevant when evaluating the prospects for export developments. Some indicators weight together nominal exchange rates. Others are measures of real exchange rates, weighting together exchange rate adjusted relative prices. The indicators chosen should be seen in the context in which they are used.

South Africa’s Trade Performance under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 261
Author(s):  
Romaine Patrick ◽  
Phocenah Nyatanga
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Growth Strategies ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Price ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate

This study examined the effect exchange rates have on import and export volumes under alternative exchange rate policies adopted in South Africa over the period 1960 to 2017. Using quarterly time series data for the stated period, a log-linear error correction model is employed to estimate the country’s export and import elasticities, taking into account Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the real price of exports, the real price of imports and real exchange rates. Using the freely floating exchange rate regime as the base period, the study concluded that both export and import volumes are lower under a system of fixed exchange rates. Export and import volumes were also found to be lower under the dual exchange rate regime, relative to the freely floating exchange rate regime. In accordance with export-led growth strategies, exports were found to be higher and imports lower under a managed floating exchange rate regime. It is therefore recommended that South Africa revert to a more managed exchange rate regime, until the South African economy is developed to accommodate a freely floating exchange rate regime.

scholarly journals The Response of G7 Real Exchange Rates to Oil Price Shocks

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 191
Author(s):  
Moayad H. Al Rasasi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Demand Shocks ◽  
Oil Supply ◽  
Exchange Rate Shocks

This paper evaluates the response of G7 real exchange rates to oil supply and demand shocks developed by Kilian (2009). We find evidence suggesting that oil shocks are associated with the appreciation (depreciation) of real exchange rates for oil exporting (importing) countries. Further evidence, based on the analysis of forecast error variance decomposition, indicates that oil-specific demand shocks are the main contributor to variation in real exchange rates, whereas oil supply shocks contribute the least. Finally, regarding the role of monetary policy in responding to oil and exchange rate shocks, we find evidence showing monetary policy reacts only to oil-specific demand and aggregate demand shocks in three countries, whereas monetary policy responds to real exchange rate fluctuations in four countries.

scholarly journals Boom Goes the Price: Giant Resource Discoveries and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation

2020 ◽  
Vol 130 (630) ◽  
pp. 1715-1728 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torfinn Harding ◽  
Radoslaw Stefanski ◽  
Gerhard Toews
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Direct Evidence ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
The Real ◽  
Traded Goods

Abstract We estimate the effect of giant oil and gas discoveries on bilateral real exchange rates. A giant discovery with the value of 10% of a country’s GDP appreciates the real exchange rate by 1.5% within ten years following the discovery. The appreciation starts before production begins and the non-traded component of the real exchange rate drives the appreciation. Labour reallocates from the traded goods sector to the non-traded goods sector, leading to changes in labour productivity. These findings provide direct evidence on the channels central to the theories of the Dutch disease and the Balassa–Samuelson effect.

Exchange rate effects on agricultural exports

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 600-621
Author(s):  
Rui Mao
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Food Industry ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agricultural Exports ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Rate Effects

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to extend empirical investigations of the relationship between real exchange rates and agricultural exports to the firm-product-country level with the use of disaggregated panel data of China’s food industry. In particular, the study aims to explore heterogeneities in the export response to real exchange rates across firms, destinations and products, as well as to differentiate responses on the intensive and extensive margins. Design/methodology/approach This paper utilizes a merged panel data set of firm-product-country level transaction records of China’s agricultural exports with firm-level survey data of the food industry. Panel regression models are constructed to identify empirical relationships. Findings Real appreciations are found to reduce export quantities and the probability to enter destination markets. These impacts are enhanced in 2005 when China unexpectedly depegged yuan from the USD. In addition, real appreciations in 2005 also reduced the yuan-denominated export price and increased firms’ probability to exit destination markets. Taking the exchange rate reform as a natural experiment, evidence suggests that the negative exchange rate effects on exports are robust to the endogeneity issue. Finally, heterogeneous export responses are identified with respect to firm productivities and ownerships, income levels and locations of destination markets, as well as product groups. Originality/value This paper provides first-hand evidence on how real exchange rates influence agricultural exports at the firm-product-country level. A featured contribution is that China’s exchange rate reform in 2005 is utilized to alleviate the typical concern of endogeneity. Findings may benefit policy makers, for example, by identifying firms most vulnerable to real appreciations.

scholarly journals Sustainable Exchange Rates When Trade Winds Are Plentiful

2008 ◽  
Vol 204 ◽  
pp. 98-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Babecký ◽  
Aleš Bulíř ◽  
Kateřina Šmídkova
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Import Demand ◽  
Trade Winds ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment Inflows

Estimation and simulation of sustainable real exchange rates in a sample of EU member countries find vulnerabilities connected to the adoption of the euro if the rate vis-à-vis the euro were to be fixed with weak fundamentals and inappropriate policies. Sample countries have benefited from dramatic improvements in their external positions, in part driven by inflows of foreign direct investment. As a result, exchange rate misalignments have narrowed in most countries and, looking ahead, are expected to narrow further. These results are conditional, however, on optimistic projections with respect to world import demand and foreign direct investment inflows.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document